2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

With the exception of Frosted, Everyone else in here thus far is a complete toss to beat AP. Who has Materiality beaten, exactly, to warrant such expectation?

Why is Frosted a contender in the Belmont, but not Materiality?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Why is Frosted a contender in the Belmont, but not Materiality?

Not sure why either are contenders? Frosted ran a better derby then Materialty IMO. I think both should be 15 to 20 to 1 to offer value and they will both be way under that price. Does Frosted have more then a 1 in 10 or 12 chance to beat AP? I dont see it

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Not sure why either are contenders? Frosted ran a better derby then Materialty IMO. I think both should be 15 to 20 to 1 to offer value and they will both be way under that price. Does Frosted have more then a 1 in 10 or 12 chance to beat AP? I dont see it

One won the Wood Memorial with a competitive figure and one won the Florida Derby with a competitive figure.

Both had some excuses in the Kentucky Derby, and even if those don't hold much water, certainly one won't be shocked, given historical results in the Classics, to see either horse fire their best shot at Belmont.

Witness: Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, Snow Chief, Hansel, Pine Bluff, Tabasco Cat, Louis Quatorze, Point Given, Lookin At Lucky, Shackleford, Oxbow, Commendable, Lemon Drop Kid, Brimstone, Jazil, Summer Bird, Union Rags, Palace Malice, Little Current.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Why is Frosted a contender in the Belmont, but not Materiality?

Because Frosted may have the slightest look as an outside longshot from a pace perspective, where Materiality will be the typical over-hyped, over-bet TAP entry that has already proven he's not capable of rating.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Because Frosted may have the slightest look as an outside longshot from a pace perspective, where Materiality will be the typical over-hyped, over-bet TAP entry that has already proven he's not capable of rating.

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

You're a trip handicapper now....in addition to becoming a sudden fanboy?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're a trip handicapper now....in addition to becoming a sudden fanboy?

Hanging out with you for 12 years has some very small benefits

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Hanging out with you for 12 years has some very small benefits

There are a lot of unfortunate ways to go with that. Let's settle for "few if any"

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

Let's just reveal the elephant in the room:

Materiality has the talent, and most importantly, the early speed, to hinder American Pharoah's bid to stay 12 furlongs.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Let's just reveal the elephant in the room:

Materiality has the talent, and most importantly, the early speed, to hinder American Pharoah's bid to stay 12 furlongs.

You sure Materiality can rate? Seems to me the same argument suggesting AP hadnt proven he could rate sitting second to a running away speedball in Ark Derby would apply to any convincing argument Materiality can rate. If being out gunned by Stanford is proof he can rate then I guess he could effect AP but nobody should be convinced he can rate and be effective and we know AP can rate and finish. Seems to me all you have to do is follow Materiality until he is spent.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If being out gunned by Stanford is proof he can rate then I guess he could effect AP but nobody should be convinced he can rate and be effective and we know AP can rate and finish. Seems to me all you have to do is follow Materiality until he is spent.

I don't know Freddy. I think most of the American Pharaoh fans that are not currently developing skunk spots want want to see him go straight to the front and never look back. This charge is being led by none other than Steve Haskin, who in his most recent "piece" declares American Pharaoh as the only truly deserved contender for the Triple Crown since Spectacular Bid (think about the horses that comment dismisses).

Now you're telling us that he should simply sit off of Materiality and wait for that one to tire. Interesting for sure. But I guess it goes back to AP having this mythical "off day" in the Kentucky Derby, you know, the only time in his career when he sat just of a talented frontrunner (Dortmund). Was it mere coincidence that it was also the only time American Pharaoh didn't glide away from the competition through the stretch?

Now maybe Materiality is no Dortmund (though the speed figures might say otherwise), but certainly the extra 1/4 mile could make up the difference.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

Semantics, Rollo. He pressed a still maiden in the slop in his maiden breaker, pressed a confirmed quitter in the Islamorada, and pressed an average Bluegrass Singer before dueling with Upstart, who would later just quit in Kentucky.

Frosted's off the pace effort in the Kentucky Derby was clearly better than Materiality's off the pace effort, and if his saving grace, "pressing" AP, is what folks are holding out hope for - well, you can see the what he was up against when successful doing so in the past.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Semantics, Rollo. He pressed a still maiden in the slop in his maiden breaker, pressed a confirmed quitter in the Islamorada, and pressed an average Bluegrass Singer before dueling with Upstart, who would later just quit in Kentucky.

Frosted's off the pace effort in the Kentucky Derby was clearly better than Materiality's off the pace effort, and if his saving grace, "pressing" AP, is what folks are holding out hope for - well, you can see the what he was up against when successful doing so in the past.

"Clearly better" usually means more than one out of ten people that know anything about watching races would agree with you. I would have trouble finding one out of 100 that actually think Frosted's Derby effort was "clearly better" than the effort of Materiality.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

"Clearly better" usually means more than one out of ten people that know anything about watching races would agree with you. I would have trouble finding one out of 100 that actually think Frosted's Derby effort was "clearly better" than the effort of Materiality.

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further.

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further.

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

What were you up to between the 1/2 mile pole and the 1/4 pole during the Kentucky Derby?

Couldn't have possibly have been watching the race.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further.

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

I'm not certain we've watched the same race if you're characterizing Materiality's trip as clean. And I'm putting that VERY delicately.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further.

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

This isn't what happened, but I'm not arguing this with you. It's not clear who ran the better race. Most people I respect believe it was Materiality, which doesn't mean that others don't believe it was Frosted that ran the better race. I'm always open to that discussion, and there has to be a certain amount of subjectivity, as it can't be clearly established one way or another.