American Pharoah...

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm not leaving him off the top, but would be much better off if he runs 3rd.

[Indian Charlie]

I have seen a few mention that AP will have trouble rating behind Dortmund.

Do people really believe that's a likely scenario???

Barring weird post position draws, I gotta believe AP will be in front of Dortmund.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Barring weird post position draws, I gotta believe AP will be in front of Dortmund.

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

I think every horse needs that. You need to get position moving forward in any race, not just the Derby. AP seems like the faster horse early.

[Indian Charlie]

For those that believe AP's numbers aren't that great relative to the field, he does have the best rag # by .75.

Hell, even Bolo's best dirt rag is faster than Dortmunds.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

Not tactics, but just raw ability.

He's just so much better.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Not tactics, but just raw ability.

He's just so much better.

Based on what?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Based on what?

Based on watching both of them run.

That being said, I'm not as confident now that AP will be in front of Dortmund in the early running.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Based on watching both of them run.

That being said, I'm not as confident now that AP will be in front of Dortmund in the early running.

Is that handicapping method what led to your current status as a non-bettor?

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

I thought this, too, but listening to Mig talk about Dortmund yesterday gives me hope that he can get stopped yet get back into his huge stride quickly.

I'm still trying to figure out if we're looking at a sensible opening half or a pace meltdown.

[Kitan]

I get that he is picture perfect in the mornings, but how does a 5f work translate to 10f?

Usain Bolt has a magnificent, effortless stride. He looks great doing it over 100m and 200m, and he's even won recently at 400m. But could he do it over 600m? 800m? Against Rushida?

I think he'll be struggling in the last furlong. I don't think he can stagger home fast enough to win.

[TheSpyder]

From what I've seen, he'll win and so will I.

If he's still getting better, then look out field. Yes, bad trip and bad racing luck may cause him to lose, but rather that than watching him trounce which I think he will.