Derby Favorite

[pucknut]

Upstart?
better than CD ?
has CD ever looked liked he didnt want go longer?
upstart sure has
in the fountain and i had money on em
he drifted IMHO because he was tired
and his FOY was nothing redeeming

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Upstart?
better than CD ?
has CD ever looked liked he didnt want go longer?
upstart sure has
in the fountain and i had money on em
he drifted IMHO because he was tired
and his FOY was nothing redeeming

Do you honestly think there's any way Carpe Diem would have beaten Upstart in the Florida Derby?

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Upstart?
better than CD ?
has CD ever looked liked he didnt want go longer?
upstart sure has
in the fountain and i had money on em
he drifted IMHO because he was tired
and his FOY was nothing redeeming

I don't think CD wants any part of 10f. Sure he's a router but 9f is very different than 10. The extra furlong is very telling in the Derby especially.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Upstart?
better than CD ?
has CD ever looked liked he didnt want go longer?
upstart sure has
in the fountain and i had money on em
he drifted IMHO because he was tired
and his FOY was nothing redeeming

Did you consider that the dynamics had him looking tired, not the distance?

[Alabama Stakes]

it also could be from running faster than the rest of them ?

[Dunbar]

Here are the odds at Bookmaker.com (take these numbers and divide by 100 to get the odds.)

These are the odds you lock in if you bet now. If your horse doesn't start, it's tough luck:

AMERICAN PHAROH +523

CARPE DIEM +645
DORTMUND +425
PROSPECT PARK +2552
UPSTART +2051
MUBTAHHIJ +1015
MATERIALITY +1616
BOLO +4050
INTERNATIONAL STAR +2051
FROSTED +1416
FIRING LINE +2051
FAR RIGHT +4050
EL KABEIR +2051
ITSAKNOCKOUT +6550
WAR STORY +5250
AMIS FLATTER +11250
STANFORD +4250
ANY CONQUEST HORSE +6550
OCHO OCHO OCHO +3554

DANZIG MOON +3050

ONE LUCKY DANE +4050
TENCENDUR +6050

Yeah, some of these horses are 100% not running. Bookmaker in the past has been slow to take down horses that had actually died.

5Dimes also has odds up, but they are mostly inferior to Bookmaker's. Exceptions are Frosted at 18-1 and El Kabeir at 28-1.

--Dunbar

[somerfrost]

For those who care about such things, dosage for some contenders:
Maftool...4-6-16-0-0 2.25 0.54
Upstart...7-5-12-0-0 3.00 0.79
Dortmund...4-5-13-0-0 2.38 0.59
Carpe Diem...4-6-24-0-0 1.83 0.41
American Pharoah...2-3-3-0-0 4.33 0.88
Mubtaahij...1-0-2-0-1 1.00 0.00
Frosted...6-9-14-1-0 2.75 0.67
Materiality...2-2-6-0-0 2.33 0.60
International Star...12-5-11-0-0 4.09 1.04
Firing Line...5-1-6-0-0 3.00 0.92

[somerfrost]

PF's for same (the lower the better), I prefer these to Beyer figs:
Maftool...-50
Upstart...-61
Dortmund...-54
Carpe Diem...-62
American Pharoah...-49
Mubtaahij...-70
Frosted...-63
Materiality...-66
International Star...-51
Firing line...-48

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

For those who care about such things, dosage for some contenders:
Maftool...4-6-16-0-0 2.25 0.54
Upstart...7-5-12-0-0 3.00 0.79
Dortmund...4-5-13-0-0 2.38 0.59
Carpe Diem...4-6-24-0-0 1.83 0.41
American Pharoah...2-3-3-0-0 4.33 0.88
Mubtaahij...1-0-2-0-1 1.00 0.00
Frosted...6-9-14-1-0 2.75 0.67
Materiality...2-2-6-0-0 2.33 0.60
International Star...12-5-11-0-0 4.09 1.04
Firing Line...5-1-6-0-0 3.00 0.92

I use this as a big factor. I mentioned before that you'd have to go back to Count Fleet to find a winner with a remotely similar profile to Mubtaahij. Is it a meaningless stat? Maybe. But with so many other questions about him...and no, it's not that I have an agenda against this horse. It was one of the reasons I didn't like him initially.

[Alabama Stakes]

Is prospect park a dual qualifier?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Is prospect park a dual qualifier?

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=44