Derby Favorite

[Indian Charlie]

I'm kind of surprised everyone thinks the favorite is going to be like 5/1.

It's very possible, especially if Pharoah takes to the track, that he goes off 2/1 or lower.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm kind of surprised everyone thinks the favorite is going to be like 5/1.

It's very possible, especially if Pharoah takes to the track, that he goes off 2/1 or lower.

5/1 seems a bit long but if AP wins easy this weekend as expected it would be like

3/1 on Dortmund
4/1 on AP
8/1 on Carpe Diem and then double digits and rising fast on everyone else.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

5/1 seems a bit long but if AP wins easy this weekend as expected it would be like

3/1 on Dortmund
4/1 on AP
8/1 on Carpe Diem and then double digits and rising fast on everyone else.

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

I would imagine an unbeaten, 17 hand tall giant of a horse who is likely to get a ton of pre race hype, who crushed in california, is likely to get a bit more play...well see I guess.

[pucknut]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

Wow! thats a bold statement given CD'S resume
I hope more of the Pharoh worshippers and the soccer moms share that view
6-1 or higher ill take it all day long

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Wow! thats a bold statement given CD'S resume
I hope more of the Pharoh worshippers and the soccer moms share that view
6-1 or higher ill take it all day long

Playable for the win that is.

I think there are several horses that look better than CD.

[ateamstupid]

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

Yeah man, I just don't see in him what people are so in love about.


I think his BCJ performance is pretty telling.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

i don't understand this argument as everyone will be facing the same 20-horse field and traffic problems galore, why is this only problematic for CD? we all know it doesn't matter how fast your horse is, b/c in a 20-horse field nothing is guaranteed, starting with the draw.

Honestly i have never seen AP run, but Dortmund's win in the SA derby was kind of a cake walk as well, yet everyone praises the performance as life altering. My take, he was up against a field in which NOBODY closed, and nobody pressured him....he put away horses IMO have no business heading to KY.....yet he dominated, which he should have, somewhat like CD.

I think a lot of people are putting emphasis into his race 2 back against FL, especially since FL goes out and dominates the Sunland Derby by 15. Personally, i think a better horse, a horse who can close would/should have gone by Dortmund that day, i don't think FL wanted to go by.....having said that, i believe if horses are given the same chance/scenario as FL, they will go by in the derby



-bt-