Santa Anita Showvivor

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Well, finally missed a pick as Tribal Gal could only manage a 4th today. I'm still going to be ahead at least for the next month but I will let this thread finally go into hibernation and will post next if I'm in danger of losing the lead.

Thanks to Knicks for the messages of support and to all my other "silent partners" who viewed this thread on a daily basis.

Sorry to hear that ranger but great run...I for one didn't post during your streak for fear of jinxing ya..my streak stopped after 4 and since have been chasing 50-1 shots..now looks like i have to catch a 90-1
If memory serves i think the last SA showvivor winner had a streak of 60..Guy closest to you has streak of 21 has long way to go...GL

[jwkniska]

great run ranger. Start up another one next racing day.

[herkhorse]

nice run ranger, good luck!

[casp0555]

Really nice run Ranger....good luck the rest of the way!!

[ranger5830]

Thanks all for the kind words, I appreciate it very much.

Some of you might be wondering why I didn't take the 2-5 Baffert maiden Wolf Man Rocket that was the obvious pick of the day, if I could find a good alternative to the big favorite I always tried to do so, as if they run out you make big moves on the leaderboard. After all there are at least 24 different correct answers every day.

A friend at work who has been following along with me asked if I considered taking the day off Sunday, and the answer is no, I'm happy with the pick I made, it just didn't work out. I had a 2-1 shot that had a clear lead in a 6-horse field at Santa Anita, those will usually yield a good result, plus the horse fit the profile of horses that I have picked with great success, E-E/P horses in dirt sprints with an outside post. It just happened this one didn't wasn't successful.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Thanks all for the kind words, I appreciate it very much.

Some of you might be wondering why I didn't take the 2-5 Baffert maiden Wolf Man Rocket that was the obvious pick of the day, if I could find a good alternative to the big favorite I always tried to do so, as if they run out you make big moves on the leaderboard. After all there are at least 24 different correct answers every day.

A friend at work who has been following along with me asked if I considered taking the day off Sunday, and the answer is no, I'm happy with the pick I made, it just didn't work out. I had a 2-1 shot that had a clear lead in a 6-horse field at Santa Anita, those will usually yield a good result, plus the horse fit the profile of horses that I have picked with great success, E-E/P horses in dirt sprints with an outside post. It just happened this one didn't wasn't successful.

That was an amazing run. Congrats!

I think your strategy of looking for an alternative to the big fav is solid in the early parts of the tournament, or if you're trailing. But once you've got a big lead, it makes more sense to me to simply take the horse you think has the best chance. Force those behind you to pick the 2nd best horse of the day in hopes of gaining on you.

That said, I think you've got a great chance of winning the thing. Nice work!

--Dunbar

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That was an amazing run. Congrats!

I think your strategy of looking for an alternative to the big fav is solid in the early parts of the tournament, or if you're trailing. But once you've got a big lead, it makes more sense to me to simply take the horse you think has the best chance. Force those behind you to pick the 2nd best horse of the day in hopes of gaining on you.

That said, I think you've got a great chance of winning the thing. Nice work!

--Dunbar

I was hoping you would show up in here, as DTs only actual Showvivor winner, I was anxious for your feedback.

Obviously I agree that you have to play favorites in order to get any kind of streak going, as so far I have picked 26 winners and the longest priced one is only $5.20, so it's not like I'm looking for longshots, or even decent priced contenders, to use. I think the longest priced horse so far has been either 7-2 or 4-1, and that was mainly at the beginning when I didn't take it as seriously.

I went back and looked at the thread where you won, great job btw, and the primary difference between us is how important you view field size to be. To me, if there's a 3-5 shot in a 10 horse field, where half the field is 20-1 or higher and is just going to struggle at the back of the pack anyway, that horse is as likely to come in as a 3-5 shot in a 5 or 6 horse field, where the other contenders are generally more evenly matched, plus the horse in the short field is likely to draw far more picks.

I think I have a good shot too, basically need one more "sure thing" horse to miss, and then it's a tall mountain to get to 43 with only 60 days left.