Kauto Star

[Hwjb]

The Tingle Creek was amazing, beating last year's best 2m novice chaser without coming off the bridle. But his penultimate win was even better, in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (haven't got access to Youtube on work computer, but sure it'll be on there); there he beat last season's highest-rated chaser in Britain and Ireland Beef Or Salmon (who, himself had defeated Gold Cup winner War of Attrition on his previous outing) by 17 lengths, also without coming off the steel. That was over 3m, showing that he has the versatility of a true champion. His defeat is becoming increasingly hard to envisage.

[brockguy]

He is defo the best chaser that I have ever seen (IMO better than Moscow)... He looks the complete article and he's only 6 rising 7....

[Hwjb]

King George VI Chase, Kempton 2:20 on Boxing Day.

Widely regarded as second only to the Cheltenham Gold Cup in terms of prestige amongst the top conditions chases, the King George arguably rivals even the March showpiece in terms of the quality of performance it's taken to be successful. In recent years, Kicking King recorded an outstanding performance when defeating Azertyuiop in 2004 for the first of his two successes, better even than he showed in lifting the Gold Cup, and First Gold and See More Business ran to a higher level than seen at Cheltenham since Master Oats in 1995 when they took the Christmas showpiece in 2000 and 1999 respectively.

This time around, the ante-post market suggests it's all about one horse in KAUTO STAR, and on the evidence of his three runs so far this season he's going to prove incredibly hard to beat. Always held in high regard, and not just at the Ditcheat base of Paul Nicholls, the French-bred six-year-old has really come of age this season. He bettered any performance recorded in Britain and Ireland in the previous campaign when stepped up to two and a half miles at Aintree on his reappearance (without coming off the bridle), and confirmed that form when taking the Betfair Chase over three miles at Haydock the following month by a similarly wide margin from Beef Or Salmon (with a back-to-form OLLIE MAGERN well held in fourth). Success in the Tingle Creek Chase back at two miles earlier this month further highlighted his versatility and it's difficult to find a fault in his make-up. Jumping problems that saw him on the deck on two of his first five starts over fences seem well and truly behind him_he was very clever when getting in close a couple of times in the Tingle Creek_and he looks a very straightforward ride. He's eligible for the Betfair Million-Pound Bonus if able to add the King George and Gold Cup to his Haydock success, and providing he's in the same sort of form on Boxing Day it's difficult to see what will prevent him from lining up at Cheltenham with the first two legs in the bag.

Kauto Star's main rival in the ante-post market has long been MONET'S GARDEN, and it's not hard to see why. Timeform's leading novice chaser of 2005/6, when his only defeat came at the hands of Voy Por Ustedes (to whom he was conceding weight) in the Arkle at Cheltenham, he made a successful return at Carlisle in October despite looking on the burly side, making all and beating the the French-trained Mid Dancer by two and a half lengths. A high-class hurdler who's very much a chaser on looks, he's still lightly raced over fences after only five starts and remains with plenty of potential. His jumping will stand him in good stead and the return to three miles seems sure to suit, but there's no getting away from the fact that he'll be up against an outstanding opponent in Kauto Star, and odds of around 4/1 for him to make up the 18 lb deficit in Timeform ratings make little appeal.

The only other horse at single-figure odds at the time of writing is RACING DEMON, and he too looks to have plenty to find with Kauto Star. Like Monet's Garden, however, he is progressive and got right back on track on his latest start having been a disappointing favourite in the Arkle and then unseated in the early stages of the Haldon Gold Cup on his return. He's shown an increased tendency to jump to his right but that proved no barrier at all on the right-handed Huntingdon track in the Peterborough Chase, and he put up his best performance yet in defeating Thisthatandtother and Monkerhostin by four and five lengths respectively. The time of that race didn't compare well with either of the chases run over the same course and distance earlier on the card, and Thisthatandtother failed to advertise the form in a valuable handicap at Cheltenham though Racing Demon does still remain with some potential. The step up to three miles shouldn't be a problem on a track such as Kempton, and may even suit him, but he realistically has no better than place claims if Kauto Star in on his game.

There are a number of horses still quoted in the ante-post market at the time of writing but the majority would appear unlikely to run judged by recent reports and a field as small as six of seven certainly isn't out of the question. Of those that do look set to turn up, MONKERHOSTIN would make each-way appeal if one could be sure he's in the same sort of form as last season, when he was beaten only a neck by Kicking King in this corresponding event at Sandown. He had a busy time of it that campaign as he strived to land the Order of Merit, and looked to be feeling the effects by the spring. He looked well forward for his return behind Racing Demon but ran a rather flat race and doubts remain over how well he's recovered.

EXOTIC DANCER comes to the race with a progressive profile and it's not hard to see him doing better again. He's won valuable handicaps at Cheltenham on his last two starts, and looked to have a little in hand when defying a 10 lb rise to 149 when beating Knowhere by one and a half lengths in the boylesports.com on the latter occasion. Three miles at Kempton shouldn't be a problem for him though as things stand he still has around 10 lb to find with Monet's Garden and Racing Demon.

In conclusion, a small field could put pay to each-way betting and there seems no point whatsoever in opposing Kauto Star, who stands head and shoulders above the rest without having been put to his best. For those who are happy to get involved a short odds, 4/6 at the time of writing still looks good value and, baring mishap, we'll be very surprised if he doesn't win impressively.

[my miss storm cat]

Kauto Star is brilliant but I'll be rooting for Monet's Garden as well.....

Come home safe, boys.

[Hwjb]

Another astounding performance by the best horse I've ever seen.

Kauto Star has now won his past 4 starts by a combined 53 lengths, and here would have won with ease but for making fairly serious errors at 4 out and the last. He still won readily enough by 8 lengths from Exotic Dancer, who ran a big race in second and Racing Demon. Monet's Garden flopped, finishing sixth of the 7 finishers, having made much of the running. He had no answer once Kauto Star loomed up travelling with ridiculous ease before 4 out.

It would appear that the only way in which he can be beaten is if he doesn;t stay on his feet...and, it should be borne in mind that he will have to treat the fences at Cheltenham with more respect than he did those at Kempton yesterday. Nevertheless, at just 6 years of age, who looks set to dominate the sport for years to come. A really special, once in a lifetime horse.

[brockguy]

another great performance from Kauto.. So good to see him destroy a proper field there on st. stephens day. The way he quickened up between the second last and last was brilliant making two quick horses look very slow .. However, if he jumps like he did there at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, he will not win, and probably wont stay on his feet. It's great to see such a fantastic horse and I just hope he continues safe and well for the season... War Of Attrition and Beef Or Salmon tomorrow. Another cracker.. Tough one to call..

Cardus, Ill let someone with more knowledge than me try to answer that one..

[Hwjb]

Well, Brock, I certainly couldn't profess to have more knowledge than you, but I'll have a stab!

First, jumpers are thoroughbreds, descended from the same lines as the stars of the Flat.
Age-wise, there are several things, I think that necessitate their being elder. Clearly speed isn't such a prerequisite over jumps, stamina is, and speed tends to be the first thing to go as a horse matures. On the other hand something they acquire is experience, a kind of canny intelligence. Again, there is no need for this when running over a mile in a straight line or round a couple of bends, but when knowing what to do at a fence, knowing to find a leg on the other side takes experience. Finally, I think, and I'm certainly no expert in this regard, but I would imagine that the immense pressures put on a horse's body would be far more liable to injure or kill if placed on an immature juvenile.
It's worth bearing in mind that around 50% of jump horses come from Flat racing, whereas half are bred by stallions with more stamina in their pedigree and go jumping straight away.

IMO, I would imagine that speed is the overriding reason, and it tends to be over the longer distances of 3m+, not 2m, that horses aged 11-13 still meet with success. Also, for Kauto Star to have reached his level of brilliance at 6 speaks volumes for his future - there are no limits to what he can achieve - and if he wins the Gold Cup in March, at 7, he will do so at the same age as the two three-time Gold Cup winners Best Mate (who won the first of his 3 in 2002) and the immortal, incomporable Arkle (1964-1966).