Soumillion on Librettist

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by philcski

Great analysis- thanks KG. I'm looking for all the help I can get on the European contenders. What were the 3 winners that previously came over, and did they have similar credentials?

I'm trying to dig deep on this one, as I can poke holes in all of the top contenders outside of Gorella- and even she may be compromised as I don't see a ton of pace in this race relative to most years. BoS may end up on the lead by default and I wouldn't trust him with anyone's money off the long layoff. He got away on the front end in his last but those were glacial fractions for Santa Anita. Aragorn will probably get first jump, but losing ground late to the unaccomplished and nowhere near this group's level Courtnall scares me. Coming home in 23 3/5 won't be good enough. Librettist seems to be the logical choice but his horrible result last out is a cause for concern. Araafa isn't exactly a win machine- and the Goodwood race leaves a bad taste in my mouth. The other euro that is intriguing on a pace/current form perspective is Echo of Light. no match in the Goodwood race but considering he has some reasonable early foot he may find himself in the first flight into the turn which is huge, he'll be able to settle right off of BoS- he's coming off a solid G2 win at Longchamp and appears to relish firmer turf more than the other invaders. thoughts?

The three previous ones were Selkirk, Catrail, and Charnwood Forest. Selkirk and Charnwood Forest were both good milers. Selkirk had won the the QE II the year before and in the year he won the Challenge, he had a couple of group two wins and placings in the Sussex and QE II. He was really good. Charnwood Forest was a cut below the best. He had won another group two but in couldn't quite get over the hump in group ones, finishing second three times (Palace, Lockinge, Sussex). Catrail was strictly a sprinter who's only previous stakes win came at 6f in a group three.

The Goodwood race was very odd for Araafa. It seemed like maybe the fast pace did him in. They went in 1:36 that day, pretty fast for a European mile. The thing that I like about Araafa is that if u look at his last four, the comment line says he's gone to the lead around the 6-7f mark. That's what I remember about the QE II race. I thought at the 6f mark he was home free but that last quarter found him wanting, not surprising to me since that race is more like a 10f test of stamina due to the course layout there.

Echo of Light is one that I'm going to take a stand against also. Like Sleeping Indian, he doesn't have a grade one win or even a placing on his resume. In his two tries in grade one company, he has finished 15th and last (at 10f though) and then he was 6th of seven at a mile. The consistency of his Timeform numbers says he should be able to compete with the best in here but I just don't get that feeling. It was encouraging to see him rate in his last but the company he kept in that race was even below grade two standards in my opinion. It is a race that Decorated Hero won before running third in the 1997 Mile and Domedriver won it before winning the 2002 Mile so there is some back history but for the most part, in my opinion, it's one of the weaker grade two races they have. Even though Araafa bombed at Goodwood, he still finished four in front of Echo of Light and Rob Roy, another entrant here, was five in front of Echo. I'm going to guess that trying to keep up with the usually faster American pace will find Echo of Light going backwards at the end. I think his biggest advantage might be the footing as u mentioned.