Super Saturday Stakes Thoughts

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Good analysis as usual. I disagree with you about the Joe Hirsch though. I'm not sure what stands out about the three favorites. Al Khali and Winchester are two of the worst Bowling Green/Manhattan winners who ever lived, and the former is questionable at the distance. Paddy has two furlongs more to get and has yet to face elders. Telling and Bearpath are both in good form that's no worse than either AK/Winchester's. Never On Sunday's been a disappointment in the States, but he's got back form that would trounce these and he was the only one to close any ground in the speed-dominated Pan American. To me, Paddy is an A, and Winchester, Bearpath, Telling and NOS are Bs.

I don't have a good feel for this race and I think it could only get thrown further into chaos if the weather is bad.

The only knock I have on NOS is that he hasn't run in over 6 months. Twelve furlongs off of such a layoff is asking a hell of a lot. You always have to be weary about anything that has the look of a horse who might be getting rushed back with hopes of making the BC this time of year.

I thought the Sword Dancer was run at a very demanding pace for the distance ... so I rewarded Al Khali and Interpatation for being close .. and thought Bearpath and Telling benefited from setups they probably won't get here.

I basically have as unimaginative a read on this race as humanly possible...but races like this rarely go very formful - especially if its wet. I try hard to avoid these type of races even if they're big races.