Dubai Carnival 2010 Discussion

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I love the Saudis tomorrow in the Guineas trial. From what I've been told, the trial races went to the pace horses, but that could've been for a number of reasons. Pace might hold better, but I know Dettori thinks being off the pace will be best.

Betting - yeah, I'll be treading lightly for sure until we see how it plays out.

If De Kock's filly Raihana wins the 1000 Guineas prep, I will be slightly surprised. Comparing her form and times and the like to others he's had in similar situations, well, there just isn't much comparison (in my opinion). The Saudis have recency edge and quality times when comparing to other Saudi races over the same trips at those distances (yes, I've spent too much time looking at Saudi race results).

That's my take.

Don't take Raihana's form too literally. She came back quite sore on both of her starts (hence why she never raced in graded company at home) and De Kock wanted to give her a bit of time before going to Dubai. He's pretty confident that she is his best filly that he's got.

I Like the Saudi horse at the bottom of the card, with two easy wins, but I'm not convinced either race took much winning.

I'm very surprised you never gave a mention of Red Rock Canyon in race 6. I know he's not the easiest horse. He has all the ability in the world but rarely shows it on the track. However, the change of stable and change of racing, could just light him up. Remember he has finished placed in many graded races for Aidan O'Brien when used in a pacemaking role and some of that form is the best on show in this race by some distance. Not only that, but he is being allowed to race with only 54kg on his back, easily the best handicapped horse in the race, and if he decided to try his hardest, he will be very difficult to beat.

Khor Dubai was actually one of the first I discounted. The form in England isn't very good. The 3rd behind Gitano Hernando somewhat flatters him, as that rival has improved leaps and bounds since then and the win in America was very much a surprise and probably flatters him, too. Khor Dubai was often seen in very moderate nurserys and handicaps on the AW, where one or two were often too good. The step up in distance is also against the horse, and I'd be very surpised if Khor Dubai was good enough here against some good handicappers and graded placed horses.

However, a very good read (as always) on your website, I agree with you regarding Star Crowned, who is always seen at his best when kept fresh. However, the Godolphin pair from Australia could be a class above the field if on-song?

Good luck.