2009 Breeders' Cup

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How can the horse possibly be an outsider when it has run clearly the best race of anyone in the field?

On top of having clearly the best race ... it might be as high as 5th or 6th choice in the betting.

If you argued that the horse was an underlay for underneath in exotic spots .. than I would certainly agree because of her running style and the factors you mention.

These types often either win easily as non-favorites ... or bomb. They have an absolutely spectacular ROI on the win end ... but they also completely bomb quite a bit.

I wasn't saying that Connie and Michael is an outsider. I was saying that if you were asking a horse who's an outsider to step up and run big in a race like this off of one MSW race then the value would probably be there. Basically I was saying that there will be no value on Connie and Michael anywhere, at least to me, because the likelihood of her duplicating that effort is low. I think she's more likely to bomb.

NT