Lukas Handicapping Angle

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As I have stated before, his percentages of breakdowns is so high that that there are insurance companies that will not insure his horses. I don't have the numbers but the insurance companies have them. In addition, he has more horses get eased and pulled up than anyone. The numbers are stagerring. I don't remember what the exact figure was but his number of horses that ease is around 3x or 4x times higher than the average trainer. The numbers confirm what everyone in the business already knows.

Again, this could be a combination of selective memory and the number of horses he trains. I don't know how many he is training now, but he used to have an empire. Of course he was going to have 3x to 4x the number of eases as an "average trainer". I know you are asserting that his percentage is also much higher, but, well, I'd like to see figs that support that assertion.

As far as the insurance companies, go...this sounds like 2nd or 3rd hand info. Do we know if it is the big insurance companies that won't insure him?

Again, I am not doubting your observations that Lukas will run horses that shouldn't be running. But I'd need more than anecdotal evidence before I'd condemn him for actually breaking down a higher percentage of horses than his peers.

--Dunbar