My Derby odds

[philcski]

Originally Posted by JJP

POTN could go off lower than Friesan Fire. But he shouldn't. What has he proven on real dirt? We've seen that synthetic form is just not representative of real dirt form and must always be viewed skeptically. There also has been speculation that the Beyer figure for Friesan Fire was too low; the Racing Post definitely seems to think so and I'm inclined to agree.

As for the odds pts being too high which was alluded to earlier, I figure takeout in. I certainly wish it were the case where we could have only 4 horses below 15-1 but I'm afraid we'd need a takeout free world to have that happen.

Bullish: Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Musket Man, Regal Ransom
Bearish: Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy and any other synth specialist
neutral: I Want Revenge, Dunkirk

I agree with you on POTN vs. FF. I wouldn't be surprised if POTN goes off as the 3rd choice. No thanks at that price.

As for making the line- I figured takeout in as well- your line has a takeout of about 30%, this game is tough enough at 16%

The easiest way to figure it is start with $120 and distribute it such that you pay out $100 (for a 16% takeout.) So if you think IWR will be favored at 3-1, he will have $25 on his nose ($25 original returned plus $75 paid in 3/1 winnings). Next if you think Dunkirk will be 9/2, that means he'll have $18.20 on his nose ($18.20 plus $81.80 in 9/2 winnings.) Work iteratively down till you've spent all the money. Then you can go back and adjust up or down when you see your first cut.