7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[Storm Cadet]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just a quick scan of your figures it looks to me like Ms Peachtree is a great bet in here.

The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today.

Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race.

Agree with CJ and you. As a customer of CJ's figs for years, I have tried to adapt his using the combined philosophies of TGRAPH and Cary Fotias of "Blinkers Off".

Her's my take on the Race with projected CJ performance figs:

2 P 75 Pairs up the previous poly fig.

3 P 84 First out in '07 runs a poly 78, should improve 2nd off 5 week freshner

1 E 78 Runs a consistant high 70's fig. Not good enough in this race.

4 EP 76 Ran a triple top on 5/19, bounced back to a 64. Never has run a route. Toss

1A E 81 Ran a New Pace Top last out on turf and paired up perf fig last out. Running the route last out helps with conditioning. Only neg is there is so much speed, E front runners will get cooked with 2 inside E horses and SWLY on her outside gunning for lead.

5 PS 73 Runs consistant low 70 poly numbers TOSS.

6 EP 82 Ran a triple top last out, normally a toss, but young horse with proper time off, I think she'll pair up that last out poly 82 and might keep upward improvement.

7 PS X TOSS

8 EP 80 Ran 4 straight improve PF figs. Small incremental improvements tell me improvement still possible to new top. Likes poly and route fitness a plus.

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

1. #3 4th place
2. #6 WON Pays $19.40
3. #1ASCR
4. #9/8 9 PLACE/8 SHOW

6-9 Ex pays 74.40
Tri Pays $218.40
Super pays $761.50 CJ Figs!