2/12-14 (CD): Derby Future Wager (Pool 3)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

... I’m not sure I like the All Others bet for Pool 3. How many horses not listed have a strong chance to win the Derby? If that horse emerges, I’d rather just wait to bet it in Pool 4 or on Derby day than to take the field at 4/1.

I don't bet on All Others with some specific horses in mind. It's a bet that new contenders will emerge from the remaining preps, and also that there is usually some attrition from the current leading contenders.

In the 3 weeks since Pool 2, 9 horses were replaced. Similarly, many of the horses from Pool 3 will not get into the starting gate on May 1. If the 6-12 horses from Pool 3's All Others that do get into the starting gate have a combined chance of at least 25% to win the Derby, then the All Others bet was a good one at 3.3-1.

2020 was weird timing-wise, so let's look at 2019. Pool 2 in 2019 was held Feb 8-10. Compared to this year's Pool 3, that's an extra week before the Derby was run. Only 7 horses from the 2019 Pool 2 made it to the starting gate. There were 12 horses from All Others, including the first 2 to cross the finish line.