Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06

[todko]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

" Split variants are a fraud ".

Thus, you believe 100% that all racetracks maintain the same variant throughout every racing day.

Good to know.

I should have re-stated and said "all track variants are a fraud"

It is iffy enough to judge a variant in the early races of a card by assessing times versus pars for that class. To conclude that "the track is slow" because 10k claimers ran +.5 at 6f in the first two races on the card is a huge mistake. Maybe the first two races just had weak fields or even full fields. Later a horse goes -.5 in a race with a short field (no traffic) and the horse gets a stunning speed fig.

It is even more iffy to split the track variant. The first 4 races get a certain variant and then the last 4 get a different variant? The track changes drastically between races 4 and 5 but not between races 1 and 2 or races 8 and 9? Gimme a break.

Dirt changes. Nobody is arguing that. It changes every time the water trucks run on it. And not only because of the water -- also because the weight of the trucks compress the track and produce fast lanes. How much do you think a full water truck weighs?

Throw in rain, wind, different field sizes, time spent stalled in the gate while horses refuse to load . . . you name it.

Like I said, any time an independent variable (track variant) is indeterminate then the dependent variable (speed figure) is also indeterminate.

I've often went up against speed figure handicappers at the local tracks. I worked off raw running times, trips, pedigrees . . . the speed figures were taped over so I couldn't see them. I always won. Try it. It will improve your handicapping. Put a piece of tape over the speed figure column on your pps. You'll find yourself taking a lot closer look -- at the fractions, trip, class, pedigree, and chart caller's comments than you will if you remain corrupted by the Beyer speed figs.

Don't get caught up in the hype. Don't be a Bernardinian.