Derby thoughts....

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by pointman

I disagree, generally the Derby provides excellent opportunites and excellent payouts. Often, it is the last time that you will see any value on a truly very good horse and you can make huge hits on exactas, tris and supers. Favorites tend to be overlaid in comparison to thier actual chances of winning the race. There is also more stupid money in the Derby pool than any other race in the year. Mine that Bird was an underlay at 50-1 which creates overlays on others. Just because this race was won by an incomprehensible horse does not make the Derby a bad betting race. Any race with 19 to 20 starters will offer value somewhere.

The good thing about this shocker is that it will create overlays in future years as there will be a lot of stupid money put on horses that have no chance in the next few years which will overlay the horses that actually have a real chance to win the race.

you are right , there are opportunities. but they are all very unreliable because of the nature of the race. its good for odds but bad on reliability. its not a bad betting race because of the results. its a bad betting race because of the conditions. yes, its worth a shot but seriously betting serious money is out of the question. the race is more of a calvary charge than a race. horses are eliminated at the start. how do you handicap that? why should you risk money on that bumper car race when bullsbay, informed decision and einstein were such easy pickings at good prices. that was my point.