I want to bet Street Sense.......but

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'm not an expert in training but I think the trainer can have a horse at a different fitness level for different races depending on the goals.

I dont see it. do you have any other examples of horses and times that work like this? People say it all the time, I have not seen any evidence to back it up.

The other thing is it's hard to say how much help a jock adds to a horse. Sure a Jerry Bailey may occasionally pull out a win or hit the board when it was unlikely, but they cant account for a huge amount. Now take the trainer, that is another level back, how can he be fine tuning the horses speed if even the jock has little control?

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He also did hold on to beat AGS and that horse may very likely be the second best horse to step in the gate on Derby Day.

Well it seems to me you've just contradicted your whole theory. If AGS is the second best horse, and AGS best finish was in the TB derby, then you are looking at the two best finishes of the season.

But then you say he's not fully cranked? So SS runs one of the best finishes of the season but he's not fully cranked? This makes no sense to me. I think you are looking at the best of SS in his last 3 races..