Best Derby bets

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by pgardn

And thats the point. This is a stampede. There have to be some horrible trips. I dont see a Smarty Jones that can get out of the gate incredibly quickly, immediately find himself a good spot, run at a very tough pace holding a nice clean position, and have more than enough for the end. There is no horse with this capability. Curlin and Street Sense do not have this capability imo, especially Street Sense. They all need some luck. So I am going for the longer odds given that every horse needs racing luck. There is no horse that I can see, based on prior races, that will just lay it down and make the race his. Smarty JOnes and Barbaro did not suprise me. I did not know if they would win, but the fact they came in and dominated was not a shocker. I dont see any horse doing this in May.
The only horses with the physical capability of doing this are Nobiz and Curlin imo. If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it. If Nobiz (who has the style) does this people will say look at this monster of a horse, everyone could see he was getting better at understanding his job after the blinks and going deaf, I wont. I will be suprised.

Neatly everything you say about Curlin, You could change the name to Barbaro last year. In my opinion SS is the one that is the least affected by post because he will just take up and take the shortcut. SS problem will come in the stretch with holes clogging up and horses blocking path. Borel has made some great choices in the past races but the pressure is on as far as finding a hole or going around. I dont think any are faster than Curlin . Curlin is probably the best at using his speed and relaxing without the jocky having to work too hard at restraining him. I dont think he will need the perfect trip . The big problem is the size of the field could produce a horible trip such as squeezed to far back out of the gate and get hooked wide in first turn. It seems that some are letting there dislike for Assmusen cloud there opinion of this horse. The X factor is the jockey mis timing of his run and watch one of several deep closers beat him to the wire. Dominican.SS,SD, CQ,Tiago,ags and maybe AGS.

[flifishri]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Neatly everything you say about Curlin, You could change the name to Barbaro last year. In my opinion SS is the one that is the least affected by post because he will just take up and take the shortcut. SS problem will come in the stretch with holes clogging up and horses blocking path. Borel has made some great choices in the past races but the pressure is on as far as finding a hole or going around. I dont think any are faster than Curlin . Curlin is probably the best at using his speed and relaxing without the jocky having to work too hard at restraining him. I dont think he will need the perfect trip . The big problem is the size of the field could produce a horible trip such as squeezed to far back out of the gate and get hooked wide in first turn. It seems that some are letting there dislike for Assmusen cloud there opinion of this horse. The X factor is the jockey mis timing of his run and watch one of several deep closers beat him to the wire. Dominican.SS,SD, CQ,Tiago,ags and maybe AGS.

Agreed: Unless Curlin draws extreme outside, what's to say Albarado won't take him to the lead and dictate the pace or at least just off it? That's very consistent with his style and this combo Curlin/Albarado rates as well as I've seen. His big move comes on the turn and without a troubled trip they're gonna hafta catch him.

[hockey2315]

At 7/2 or so I'll take my chances against him. . . But I do think he's the most talented horse in the race. . . Too bad the derby might be his last. ..

Originally Posted by hockey2315

At 7/2 or so I'll take my chances against him. . . But I do think he's the most talented horse in the race. . . Too bad the derby might be his last. ..

If he goes off at 7/2 I will be very suprised. It will really show the public's severe lack of confidence in this year's crop. Im still thinking Street Sense goes off at 5-1 as the favorite. But we will see. You can never tell what exactly will sway the public.
This is basically why I see the study of Economics a noble attempt to study something very unpredictable. Relying on how the masses will react to something. Heck, look at the stock market. 3 weeks ago it was doom and gloom. People on this very board were saying its time to leave. And now we reach all time highs... very difficult stuff. Human behavior is very complex.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pgardn

And thats the point. This is a stampede. There have to be some horrible trips. I dont see a Smarty Jones that can get out of the gate incredibly quickly, immediately find himself a good spot, run at a very tough pace holding a nice clean position, and have more than enough for the end. There is no horse with this capability. Curlin and Street Sense do not have this capability imo, especially Street Sense. They all need some luck. So I am going for the longer odds given that every horse needs racing luck. There is no horse that I can see, based on prior races, that will just lay it down and make the race his. Smarty JOnes and Barbaro did not suprise me. I did not know if they would win, but the fact they came in and dominated was not a shocker. I dont see any horse doing this in May.
The only horses with the physical capability of doing this are Nobiz and Curlin imo. If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it. If Nobiz (who has the style) does this people will say look at this monster of a horse, everyone could see he was getting better at understanding his job after the blinks and going deaf, I wont. I will be suprised.

I think Curlin is good enough to get good position and make his own trip. Of course, I don't have anywhere near that much confidence in Albarado.

As for NoCount:

I found it interesting that for the first time in his life he was able to actually run straight through the stretch. The blinkers/earplugs did the job. The problem here, of course, is that the jock didn't seem to realize it. I mean, he's only been on the horse for all his races and guess it didn't sink in that the horse

a) was on the rail --- which is where he wants to be (before and after the changes) and

b) unlike previous attempts, he was running straight

So Cornelio decides to start a steady stream of left handed whipping. This, of course, negates the INSIDE advantage the horse had throughout the race. He starts drifting, carrying AGS out with him (what inside bias, says Johnny V)
and almost blows the race. Almost loses to a runt. Very late stretch, Cornelio wakes up, stops with the lefty stream and starts riding/steering the horse towards the inside again. And he takes off and preserves the win.

So, he got the bias dream trip for most of the race, and almost lost the race to a plug when he lost the advantage. I'd say, NoCount, not only can't win with adversity but he can't win without a dream trip.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pgardn

obviously without post positions considered with the information at this time.

1. Great Hunter (ONeill cant win anything but this horse is good with the proper running style; lost last time out, all the better.)

2. Scat Daddy (Pletcher has never won a Derby... so what he can train, this is a very tough animal)

3. Any Given Saturday (same as above)

4. Hard Spun (nothing but excuses so far but I still think he is good)

Im thinkin Scat Daddy is probably the only one of the above that goes off at less than 10-1. Once the post positions gets settled I will probably take a stab with one of these.

Curlin may very well be the most talented animal but having faced no difficulities I got to forget him in the upcoming stampede. Street Sense has been in a number of wars, so out of the favorites, I would think he has the best chance. Already know he can run on the track. Bottom line is this thing is wide open. We have some throwout speed death and some mentioned in the other posts I basically agree with. (CQ is a no go with me, workouts be damned)

still only one loss--not much need for excuses, which is why it blows my mind that they keep making them for him!!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

still only one loss--not much need for excuses, which is why it blows my mind that they keep making them for him!!

Agreed.. I think Hard Spun may be the forgotten horse in this Derby..

[Danzig]

ateam, i've been watching that guy all spring--wasn't so sure that he was derby material, but i haven't seen anything to take me off him. so i will be backing him for the race. shame tho, that i'm hoping to only see him run a few more times at the most, eh?!

Originally Posted by easy goer

Look at this::



What is objective about this? You imagine a scene where Curlin hates being behind horse. I imagine a scene where No Biz sprouts wings and flies over the final quarter; what good is that?

Curlin has been lightly sprinkled with track in his last race. He has never been in a pack, never. I cant take a horse that has never ever run in tight quarters. ANd if he gets a mid range post he might be 4 to one. You can have it my friend.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Look at this::



What is objective about this? You imagine a scene where Curlin hates being behind horse. I imagine a scene where No Biz sprouts wings and flies over the final quarter; what good is that?

It's too bad Pegasus Wind isn't running... he could have been the 'wind beneath Nobiz's wings.' Haha

Originally Posted by pgardn

Curlin has been lightly sprinkled with track in his last race. He has never been in a pack, never. I cant take a horse that has never ever run in tight quarters. ANd if he gets a mid range post he might be 4 to one. You can have it my friend.

To say he's been lightly sprinkled; Okay that is objective. To say he has never been in a pack, Okay that is also fact, assuming you are correct here.

To say "I cant take a horse that..." Okay that is a fact too, albeit it only applies to you.

What I dont get is assuming what will happen if he does get into a pack. ths horse, Curlin, seems to be relaxed as he goes by other horses. It might bode well, we've seen plenty of horse that dont look relaxed and bad results are probably more likely. I just dont think a horse should be tossed on the basis of speculation. If there is something about the horse that suggests he might have a problem then by all means, have at it.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

As for NoCount:....

So Cornelio decides to start a steady stream of left handed whipping. This, of course, negates the INSIDE advantage the horse had throughout the race. He starts drifting, carrying AGS out with him (what inside bias, says Johnny V)
and almost blows the race. Almost loses to a runt..

You've been insisting the whole time that this horse lugs in because he wants to be on the rail, so I assume the jock is hitting him left handed to keep him from doing that. What am I missing?

What if he hits him righty and he lugs in? Then you would have said "I told you so." SO which is it?

Originally Posted by easy goer

To say he's been lightly sprinkled; Okay that is objective. To say he has never been in a pack, Okay that is also fact, assuming you are correct here.

To say "I cant take a horse that..." Okay that is a fact too, albeit it only applies to you.

What I dont get is assuming what will happen if he does get into a pack. ths horse, Curlin, seems to be relaxed as he goes by other horses. It might bode well, we've seen plenty of horse that dont look relaxed and bad results are probably more likely. I just dont think a horse should be tossed on the basis of speculation. If there is something about the horse that suggests he might have a problem then by all means, have at it.

The problem is the odds my friend. There are unknowns about the horse. I will state it more clearly. Since the horse has never encountered traffic problems, the chance that he will encounter problems in the Derby are much higher. Do you disagree with this?
Now take my opinion that he will either be the favorite or going off the second favorite, hell no I wont take him. Its a risk v. reward problem as always. And his risks are higher that he folds compared to a horse like Scat Daddy (who has been in very tough quarters and races). All of this about probability and chance. When most people state their views very little is actually a fact. They are mostly opinions based on observations. So what I have observed about Curlin is that he has never faced adversity therefore the likelyhood he will fold is higher than a horse that has faced adversity and not folded. Is this really that hard to understand? Because Curlin has passed horses with composure means nothing compared to what he will face in the Derby.

Now I will admit to you the horse appears to be incredibly professional for a horse that has run only 3 races. And he looks like he very well might be the most talented animal in the whole bunch. But I feel like experience counts for a whole lot in a race like the Derby. Luck counts for a whole lot more.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Speaking of getting people interested in our sport, the ten cent super is PERFECT for the Derby,
why Churchill and NYRA doesn't have them is beyond me!

Can you imagine how much fun we'd have at that on Edwards Street with all the talk he have of Collusion bets??

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Can you imagine how much fun we'd have at that on Edwards Street with all the talk he have of Collusion bets??

Unfortunately mostly all we DO is talk!!!

pgardn: I usually agree w/ most of what you say, you sound very knowledgeable and your posts are well thought out. All I would offer to say is that, nearly every time I make a mistake handicapping it is because I assume something will happen w/o having any logical/objective reason for it to happen. Then I ask myself: "Why did I do that? What the hell was I thinking?"

You quote the odds on Curlin. I think you are letting the odds dictate how you will treat this horse. Your strategy is to beat Curlin with the rationale that: if I can beat Curlin I can take out maybe 20% of the money in the pool. Sure it would be nice to beat Curlin and to assume that he will not win, or not place or whatever. It would be great to know that there is 20% of the pool that I do not have to worry about. It's not really an objective strategy to say "I will beat the favorite because..."

It's the low odds on Curlin that is driving your decision or rationalizing it. At least that is what I am suggesting. It is true he hasnt faced this level, but we dont really know how he will react. I played against him last time out, for no real good reason.

But an objective look would also tell you that over the long haul the parimutual pool does a great job of predicting the actual horses odds (assuming such "actual odds" is a real thing). Perhaps Curlin does not have the best chance but objectively he probably has a decent chance here. So the upshoot is that unless you have a real objective reason as to why he cant win, then all you're doing is taking a real horse w/ a real shot at winning and hoping that he doesnt come in. He might not come in, but if you continue to play that way, over the long haul it will not work. You may toss 2 or 3other horses, with real shots, sooner or later one of them will come in.

So the argument about Curlins odds is interesting but ultimately all it proves is that he might have a good chance if the public hasnt totally lost it's mind.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

The problem is the odds my friend. There are unknowns about the horse. I will state it more clearly. Since the horse has never encountered traffic problems, the chance that he will encounter problems in the Derby are much higher. Do you disagree with this?
Now take my opinion that he will either be the favorite or going off the second favorite, hell no I wont take him. Its a risk v. reward problem as always. And his risks are higher that he folds compared to a horse like Scat Daddy (who has been in very tough quarters and races). All of this about probability and chance. When most people state their views very little is actually a fact. They are mostly opinions based on observations. So what I have observed about Curlin is that he has never faced adversity therefore the likelyhood he will fold is higher than a horse that has faced adversity and not folded. Is this really that hard to understand? Because Curlin has passed horses with composure means nothing compared to what he will face in the Derby.

Now I will admit to you the horse appears to be incredibly professional for a horse that has run only 3 races. And he looks like he very well might be the most talented animal in the whole bunch. But I feel like experience counts for a whole lot in a race like the Derby. Luck counts for a whole lot more.

none of these horses have faced traffic like they will in the derby, so I don't know why you would apply it to one horse, Curlin.

Going from nine furlongs to ten, I much more comfortable going with the faster horse, Curlin, who is not slowing down as much at nine furlongs as other horses like Scat Daddy.

If you are giving credit to Scat Daddy for facing diversity and not folding, then do you also give demerits for when he faced diversity and folded?
Circular Quay, No Biz, Street Sense, Drums of Thunder, they all handled him along the way.

sure he has managed to win his last two but I'm not sure how tough those races were. Notional, Stormello, Chelokee?

big question mark in my mind.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

none of these horses have faced traffic like they will in the derby, so I don't know why you would apply it to one horse, Curlin.

Going from nine furlongs to ten, I much more comfortable going with the faster horse, Curlin, who is not slowing down as much at nine furlongs as other horses like Scat Daddy.

If you are giving credit to Scat Daddy for facing diversity and not folding, then do you also give demerits for when he faced diversity and folded?
Circular Quay, No Biz, Street Sense, Drums of Thunder, they all handled him along the way.

sure he has managed to win his last two but I'm not sure how tough those races were. Notional, Stormello, Chelokee?

big question mark in my mind.

LOL!!!

Sorry Jim... watch the Breeders Cup Juvy again... the Juvy was the only race Scat Daddy finished off the board and IMO it wasn't that horrible of a race for him. Maybe I'm nuts and need to go and watch it again myself, but that's what I saw.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

LOL!!!

Sorry Jim... watch the Breeders Cup Juvy again... the Juvy was the only race Scat Daddy finished off the board and IMO it wasn't that horrible of a race for him. Maybe I'm nuts and need to go and watch it again myself, but that's what I saw.

what do you find so funny? all of these horses have beat Scat Daddy. I didn't say he was off the board every time.

I have watched the juvy many times. What should I be looking for if I watch it again? No it wasn't horrible, its just that Scat Daddy did not measure up to several of his rivals on that day, and all of them plus others will be in the Derby.

[slotdirt]

For those who like Hard Spun, he had yet another nice work this morning at Keeneland.