Street Sense Number

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Perhaps if you weren't agreeing with my most recent post your idiotic attack wouldn't have been quite as obvious.

attack on what? I merely posted data that casts doubt on your theory that the horse doesn't do its best running on the outside; didn't win the race but certainly ran the best race.

but you already had that information cause you bet the horse in the Juvenile, remember?

so what are you getting pissed about?

[cmorioles]

In the Thorograph ROTW, they actually predicted Curlin would bounce. First off, since he had one start, how the hell could they know how much potential this horse had?

Second, he had SIX WEEKS of rest. Exactly how long does a horse need to be off not to bounce? Three months? Six? A year? This crazy notion of "the bounce", which are nearly always just another convenient trainer excuse, are very bad for racing in general. It is a big part of why we have 5 horses stakes races all the time.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I love Street Sense, and was thrilled with his race today ( though Any Given Sunday was just as well ), but I am a little concerned that he's a " rail runner " in that his two very big efforts came by running up the fence. As someone mentioned earlier, he isn't likely to get that trip in the Derby, and perhaps he's one of those horses that runs his best when inside.

Not a knock...just a thought.

Hey fat man,
I think you need to read again the post again that got you all worked up. What exactly does blackthroatedwind say in this post? He says he is "concerned" and that he thinks the horse is "perhaps" a horse that does his best running inside. He isn't knocking the horse, but bringing up a legitimate question. If he had come on here and posted, "Street Sense is a fraud, he can ONLY win with a rail trip," that would have been a different story.
Your argument seems to be that it is not even worth considering that his last two big performances have come on the rail. That does not make sense to me. Almost everything that happens in a horse's race career is worth considering.....especially something like this.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

In the Thorograph ROTW, they actually predicted Curlin would bounce. First off, since he had one start, how the hell could they know how much potential this horse had?

Second, he had SIX WEEKS of rest. Exactly how long does a horse need to be off not to bounce? Three months? Six? A year? This crazy notion of "the bounce", which are nearly always just another convenient trainer excuse, are very bad for racing in general. It is a big part of why we have 5 horses stakes races all the time.

On the other hand, the notion of "bounce" is a good thing for bettors savvy enough to recognize nonsense.

--Dunbar

[cmorioles]

Good point, I guess I love the bounce.

[Grits]

Trakus, the new technology, the new info, termed as cutting edge--with its bouncing balls of saddle cloth colors traveling the oval above each horse.

In regard to this boondoggle of stats, as vital as they may seem to you, keep 'em.

Equibase charts, I assure you, are not in danger of being replaced.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:

Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner

1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Would you say Bellamy Road ran too good of a race in the Wood to come back and duplicate that performance in the Derby? A horse that blew his engine too early to me was Brother derek..Just my opinion of course

Bellamy Road was injured in that race I believe (made his next start in the travers and ran an excellent 2nd). He also finished 7th in the derby - which was very good considering he was injured and was pushing a fast pace, i believe closing argument was close to that pace also and was the only horse that outlasted bellamy road to the wire (from the pace).

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Bellamy Road was injured in that race I believe (made his next start in the travers and ran an excellent 2nd). He also finished 7th in the derby - which was very good considering he was injured and was pushing a fast pace, i believe closing argument was close to that pace also and was the only horse that outlasted bellamy road to the wire (from the pace).

I still think that Bellamy Road was one of the most (if not THE most) talented horses of that crop. It's a shame he couldn't stay sound.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

You don't start a legitimate Derby contender in the middle of March unless something is wrong. ...

March 17, 1973 - Secretariat makes his 3yo debut, winning the 7f Bay Shore S at Aqueduct over Champagne Charlie and Impecunious (who shipped out of town to win the Arkansas Derby next out). He went on to win the Gotham on April 7 (ETR) and lose the Wood Memorial on April 21. Turf writers wonder if he's finished, since he's by Bold Ruler (hasn't sired a Derby winner yet, despite siring gobs of top 2yos) and a half-brother to Sir Gaylord, who was an ante-post Derby favorite but got hurt before starting.

Not to say Street Sense is a Secretariat, but sweeping statements like this annoy me.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

March 17, 1973 - Secretariat makes his 3yo debut, winning the 7f Bay Shore S at Aqueduct over Champagne Charlie and Impecunious (who shipped out of town to win the Arkansas Derby next out). He went on to win the Gotham on April 7 (ETR) and lose the Wood Memorial on April 21. Turf writers wonder if he's finished, since he's by Bold Ruler (hasn't sired a Derby winner yet, despite siring gobs of top 2yos) and a half-brother to Sir Gaylord, who was an ante-post Derby favorite but got hurt before starting.

Not to say Street Sense is a Secretariat, but sweeping statements like this annoy me.

Pedigree Ann you're my hero.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Hey fat man,
I think you need to read again the post again that got you all worked up. What exactly does blackthroatedwind say in this post? He says he is "concerned" and that he thinks the horse is "perhaps" a horse that does his best running inside. He isn't knocking the horse, but bringing up a legitimate question. If he had come on here and posted, "Street Sense is a fraud, he can ONLY win with a rail trip," that would have been a different story.
Your argument seems to be that it is not even worth considering that his last two big performances have come on the rail. That does not make sense to me. Almost everything that happens in a horse's race career is worth considering.....especially something like this.

Why does taking the best available route make the horse a possible rail runner (only)? Would you have preferred that he went around horses in Tampa? Would you have wanted a 3 or 4 wide trip in a 5 horse field (like Gomez in Cali)? Would that have allayed all concerns about this horses ability to run wide? Why is a good ride all of a sudden cause for concern?

I didn't misunderstand what he wrote. I just can see over analyzing.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Dude honestly the trolling is getting to be ridiculous. I suppose the 1 or 2 jabs a week are funny but it's pretty obvious.

You really need to stop sucking up. Must hurt being on your knees constantly when the subject is as short as the one in question.

Are we still pissed about getting SCHOOLED in the Deadly Dealer race?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why does taking the best available route make the horse a possible rail runner (only)? Would you have preferred that he went around horses in Tampa? Would you have wanted a 3 or 4 wide trip in a 5 horse field (like Gomez in Cali)? Would that have allayed all concerns about this horses ability to run wide? Why is a good ride all of a sudden cause for concern?

I didn't misunderstand what he wrote. I just can see over analyzing.

I could respond by explaining, for about the fifth time, that I never made any conclusive observations, but merely offered a possibility, but since you have admitted that I am a " foil " of yours, and thus have admitted to trolling me, then there's really no reason to offer what you know to be the truth.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You really need to stop sucking up. Must hurt being on your knees constantly when the subject is as short as the one in question.

Are we still pissed about getting SCHOOLED in the Deadly Dealer race?

Awww... look at the cute little troll.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In general, I think the " rail is the shortest route to the wire " concept is as deceptive a way of thinking as I know in racing. It is quite simply a misconception of race dynamics.

Can you elaborate on this? I think I understand what you are saying in relation to SS, but not really sure how terrible this thinking is. I understand a lot of horses dont like to come inside but are there examples of horses that dont like to go outside? Not really sure if this is your pt. or not. so...

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Awww... look at the cute little troll.

That movie scared the s.hit out of me...Plus Critters.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

March 17, 1973 - Secretariat makes his 3yo debut, winning the 7f Bay Shore S at Aqueduct over Champagne Charlie and Impecunious (who shipped out of town to win the Arkansas Derby next out). He went on to win the Gotham on April 7 (ETR) and lose the Wood Memorial on April 21. Turf writers wonder if he's finished, since he's by Bold Ruler (hasn't sired a Derby winner yet, despite siring gobs of top 2yos) and a half-brother to Sir Gaylord, who was an ante-post Derby favorite but got hurt before starting.

Not to say Street Sense is a Secretariat, but sweeping statements like this annoy me.

This is correct, but you can't really apply what Secretariat did in the 1970s to racing today. Training practices are very different and if you tried a training schedule like that nowadays, the horse would most likely never run again. I mean look at that...March 17 to April 7 to April 21 and then the first Saturday in May that year. Unbelievable. Plus, you are comparing Street Sense's campaign to an absolute freak of a horse's campaign. And who is to say that the reason that the connections of Secretariat waited so late in the year to start wasn't due to a little injury that was never released to the public. Secretariat never ran as a four year old right? Way too many unknown variables in there to compare Street Sense's late start in the year to Secretariat's....

Besides, the connections of Street Sense basically admitted that they were having issues with the horse...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Can you elaborate on this? I think I understand what you are saying in relation to SS, but not really sure how terrible this thinking is. I understand a lot of horses dont like to come inside but are there examples of horses that dont like to go outside? Not really sure if this is your pt. or not. so...

I'm not sure I would use the word " terrible ", as I felt deceptive was more apt, and I will try to explain.

Let's assume for this argument that all tracks are " fair ", in other words there is no advantage or disadvantage to being in one path or another, and only ground loss is involved. Thus, clearly the more time spent on the inside, or closer to the inside, on the turns the better in terms of overall ground covered. Thus, obviously there is some very real incentive to staying inside. However, many horses are intimidated by running inside of horses, whether in the stretch or sometimes even on turns, so they will not exert themselves if forced into this position. This does not hold true for ALL horses, and I wouldn't ever suggest absolutes like that, but it is true for many. In general, many horses do their best running unencumbered on the outside of other horses. So, for this reason it is a mistake, IMO, to automatically assume that an inside trip is a good trip. It may be...but it is far from an absolute.

I am sure you have bet horses in your life that have had sweet looking trips inside and behind horses and somewhat surprisingly didn't run as well as you figured, and almost looked to be spinning their wheels so to speak, only to come back and run much better the next time with a more outside trip. This goes against the " saving ground is best " way of thinking, and may be due to the horse being uncomfortable inside or perhaps not liking dirt getting kicked in its face, but for whatever reason I think it shows at least the possibility that saving ground is not ALWAYS the best way to victory. The horse's comfort CAN far outweigh any ground loss.

See what threw me off in your original thought was that you mentioned "race dynamics" so I was unsure if you were referrring to the pace of the race, or perhaps, an inside outside bias or whatever.

That is why I was hesistant to bring up horse psychology as perhaps you were thinking along another line. Obviously a dead rail would not be good for running on the inside.

so you are speaking of horse psychology which I think mutes your pt. a little bit. If the horse has established that he can and will run inside of horses (like SS that we were speaking of) is there a reason for the punter to think that there maybe a problem if he doesnt get this trip?

I mean, I understand a horse who successful on the outside may have trouble running inside of horses but are there examples of the opposite: horses who could run inside of horses but did not like to run outside of them? I think that is where you are going with it, but I dont recall any offhand. See that is where I am a little bit wondering here, you seem to suggest that the opposite effect can happen.

Of course there are many example of horses that are hesistant while on the rail, I often bring up the example of Proud Accolade literally butt whipping another horse into submission on his inside, to take a race at AQU when he was a 2 yr. old. or Barbaro when he won that race in FL was really intimidating Like Now (?). Yeah that happens a lot. Was Any Sat. bumping a little with SS, yesterday?

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I stand by it. He beat 1 horse today and ran better than I thought he would. That number as a two year old was the best ever for any juvenille winner. If he is the second coming of Secretariat he will show it.

And the sad thing is, I wasn't rooting against him in the least. Not at all. I think it would be great if a juvy winner could win the Derby....But if you follow Thoros and believe in them the call made sense. Nothing I saw today changes that.

Don't you mean the second coming of Mineshaft?