Zenyatta sure to be wronged by vindictive number nerds

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Beyers aren't out for yesterday's SA races yet - but Zenyatta ran 6 points faster than Sidney's Candy did in his San Felipe victory.

The longshot maiden Stephen's Got Hope - who was 7th in a MSW race last time out - finished 5th beaten 5 lengths behind Sidney's Candy.

Erebia finished dead last of 7 in Sidney's Candys race - beaten all of 5.75 lengths. His previous lifetime best figure is 80.

Lets assume Erebia ran well enough while finishing last to equal his best lifetime number of 80 - that would give Sidney's Candy a 90 and Zenyatta a 96.

Dance To My Tune would get a 94 for running 2nd to Zenyatta - which would be the best figure of her life in career start #30.

In fact, Pretty Kathrine would get a 86 for finishing 7th. That would mean that she also ran a lifetime best number - by open lengths - in career start #16 - while only managing to beat a single horse in a field of eight.

In other words ... it's pretty impossible to justify Zenyatta getting anything more than a 96. Even that number is really stretching it.

She's obviously going to get a lower number in that glorified workout than the 100 RA got yesterday in defeat. I can only imagine the outrage.

John Shirreffs is a God.

[SOREHOOF]

I still believe that synthetic Beyers don't mean squat when handicapping a race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If you say it about Beyers - you're saying it about Thoro-Graphs and Ragozins and everyone elses figures as well.

They're basically all the same ... and RA is going to get a faster number in defeat on everyones figures because she ran faster.

Even though Zenyatta got a great pace setup - a lot of people are going to make a case that Zenyatta could have run faster if she was put to an all-out drive.

Just like a lot of people are going to make a case that RA has a right to improve significantly because she hadn't run in over a half year - and had a light worktab for a terrible layoff trainer.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I still believe that synthetic Beyers don't mean squat when handicapping a race.

i agree, those numbers mean squat when they change tracks too. i never put too much faith in the "numbers" anyway. will they give you some winners ? yes. but, learning how to read the racing form and anticipate outcomes of the way a race is going to run is way more important. anyone with any horse sense knew that rachel would have a hard time coming back after 6 and 1/2 months. shes a front end kind of horse that had a grueling schedule. the fact of the matter is she may never come back to that form again. i've been doing this for so long and have seen many horses go this route, especially the fillies and mares. i'm glad there are numbers people because it gives alot of overlays. every surface is different and every horse reacts differently to the surface. trying to correspond some sort of number to the performance and then projecting it to the next race is fine at the same meet. when the surface changes those numbers are just about worthless. zenyatta runs to win not for numbers. she sits back and exerts just enough energy to pass every one. if the race is slow she wins "slow", but as we've seen when the competition is better she can step up her game. a horse with her style and brains is very, very hard to beat. the number she gets means nothing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i never put too much faith in the "numbers" anyway. will they give you some winners ?

Anyone who uses them as the sole tool for "giving winners" is certainly going to lose money betting. They'll lose about 3/4 or 7/8 of the takeout over the long run.

They tell you absolutely nothing other than how fast the final time of the race was from start to finish - with the speed of the racing surface factored in.

Anyone who thinks they aren't important when gauging horses from different circuits is out of their mind.

[smuthg]

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

[northeastbound123]

Originally Posted by smuthg

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

I'm shocked, never thought she would break 100

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by smuthg

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

That's a downright horrible figure .. but I love it when we're off by that much.

Basically ... if you believe that Zenyatta ran a 102 today .. you believe that every single horse she beat ran by far the best race of their lives. You also have to believe that soundly beaten horses (behind a slow pace no less) in the San Felipe surged to career best numbers.

If Zenyatta gets a 102 ...

* 2nd place Dance to My Tune runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths in career start #30. She gets a 100

* 3rd place Floating Heart runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths.

* 4th place Striking Dancer runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths. And 7 full lengths better than her 2nd best prior race.

* 5th place Pretty Unusual runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths.

* 6th place Made For Magic - in career start #30 - runs the best race of her life

* 7th place Pretty Kathrine - while only managing to beat a single horse - ran the best race of her life by 4.5 lengths.

* 8th and last place finisher Gripsholm Castle - despite taking up sharply - runs the same figure while last at 9/1 odds today that she did while a dream trip 2nd at 18/1 odds in the Grade 2 La Canada last time out.

I think the figure maker did a wonderful job of not showing an Anti West Coast Bias or anti synthetic bias. It's very important to not make hopelessly stupid people think you might be biased in some way.

I just feel sorry for any bettors who will take the figures of the horses Zenyatta beat at face value when these horses run back. They'll all be "dropping in class" out of a "Grade 1" with "big figures" .. nice collection of future bet againsts.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Anyone who uses them as the sole tool for "giving winners" is certainly going to lose money betting. They'll lose about 3/4 or 7/8 of the takeout over the long run.

They tell you absolutely nothing other than how fast the final time of the race was from start to finish - with the speed of the racing surface factored in.

Anyone who thinks they aren't important when gauging horses from different circuits is out of their mind.

.....i cant remember the beyers rachael got with her bang up race over the synthetic but it seems all horses get low figs over the stuff....i mean sydney got less than a 100 going 20 and change

[asudevil]

Current matchup for Apple Blossom:

Zenyatta -170
Rachel + 150

[MisterB]

Simply won't be denied. RA can work her ass off, it won't matter.

[10 pnt move up]

Zardana has run credible races on three surfaces, she just is a decent little horse. I have no idea where people get this she suddenly became something different in her 100 beyer figure effort yesterday.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Zardana has run credible races on three surfaces, she just is a decent little horse. I have no idea where people get this she suddenly became something different in her 100 beyer figure effort yesterday.

Isn't it a significant difference between a 101 Beyer and a 96 Beyer (her previous high)?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Isn't it a significant difference between a 101 Beyer and a 96 Beyer (her previous high)?

Not when turf and synthetic beyers are pretty much moot.