Biggest Overlay on Derby Day?

[Gander]

Their price in relation to them winning their Derby...

Any guesses?

Big Brown (if he goes off at 4/1 or higher, which I doubt but so many seem to think is possible)

Bob Black Jack (at anything above 25/1, which is likely)

Pyro (if he goes off at 10/1 or higher, which after his performance on the junk is possible)

[Thunder Gulch]

If you look at the current future odds, Smooth Air at 45-1 is nice. I'd take Eight Belles at 25-1, but I'm thinking she'd be less than that if she actually starts.

[Danzig]

eight belles may be less than that, but i would be VERY surprised to see her less than double digits.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Danzig

eight belles may be less than that, but i would be VERY surprised to see her less than double digits.

Let's hope her connections come to thier senses and go in the Oaks!

[Danzig]

i'd run her on saturday. no guts no glory.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'd run her on saturday. no guts no glory.

But, I got her @ 22-1 in the 1st Oaks future pool nice to have extra dough the next day!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Visionaire

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Gander

Their price in relation to them winning their Derby...

Any guesses?

Big Brown (if he goes off at 4/1 or higher, which I doubt but so many seem to think is possible)

Bob Black Jack (at anything above 25/1, which is likely)

Pyro (if he goes off at 10/1 or higher, which after his performance on the junk is possible)

Big Brown will be 5-2 or less, doubt Bob Black Jack will be that much & Pyro looks about 8-1 and got the best shot of the three you listed.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Big Brown will be 5-2 or less, doubt Bob Black Jack will be that much & Pyro looks about 8-1 and got the best shot of the three you listed.

less?! i think 5-2 is too low.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Danzig

less?! i think 5-2 is too low.

I'd be shocked if he was more than 7-2, Colonel John should be 2nd choice (5-1 to 7-1) & Pyro (6-1 to 9-1)

[ceejay]

I'd guess the biggest overlay of the day will be on the Derby undercard.

[Gander]

There is always a sprint race on the undercard. Anyone know who is pointing to this race?

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Gander

Their price in relation to them winning their Derby...

Any guesses?

Big Brown (if he goes off at 4/1 or higher, which I doubt but so many seem to think is possible)

Bob Black Jack (at anything above 25/1, which is likely)

Pyro (if he goes off at 10/1 or higher, which after his performance on the junk is possible)

big brown 4-1 or higher, good luck on that one. i can't bet him even if he wins, which i think he can't. if pyro is anything over 6-1 jump all over it ! classic derby , the horse loses the prep only to come back and win at good odds. want me to start naming all the ones that have done it before. thunder gulch, funnycide, unbridled, giacomo, street sense, manarchos , and thats off the top of my head, in recent memory. didn't secretariat lose the wood , oh yeah he did! since when is a horses form determined by one race , especially when there is no need to win. the last race was a walk in the park on poly crap,i'm hoping he is over 10-1 !

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

classic derby , the horse loses the prep only to come back and win at good odds. want me to start naming all the ones that have done it before. thunder gulch, funnycide, unbridled, giacomo, street sense, manarchos

Really? By my unofficial count the last 15 or more derby winners finished their final prep 4th or better. Not 10th. Maybe you can blame the poly but derby winners do prep better than that usually.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by ceejay

Really? By my unofficial count the last 15 or more derby winners finished their final prep 4th or better. Not 10th. Maybe you can blame the poly but derby winners do prep better than that usually.

excellent point if poly had been around 15 years or the derby was being run on poly.

or pyro had run a comparably bad race on dirt.

i find it easier to throw out derby history in this circumstance than all the dirt races the horse has run.

[Uncle Daddy]

I would consider Z Fortune an overaly at 20/25-1 with a few things to like

[Gander]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

big brown 4-1 or higher, good luck on that one. i can't bet him even if he wins, which i think he can't. if pyro is anything over 6-1 jump all over it ! classic derby , the horse loses the prep only to come back and win at good odds. want me to start naming all the ones that have done it before. thunder gulch, funnycide, unbridled, giacomo, street sense, manarchos , and thats off the top of my head, in recent memory. didn't secretariat lose the wood , oh yeah he did! since when is a horses form determined by one race , especially when there is no need to win. the last race was a walk in the park on poly crap,i'm hoping he is over 10-1 !

Big difference in Pyro's awful Blue Grass and Funny Cide and Monarchos' Wood Memorials. Neither of those two won it, but both very respectable and obviously got a lot out of their efforts. Giacomo ran good in the SA Derby, I think it was a hard charging 3rd in a very flukey race where I think Buzzards Bay won. Street Sense ran very well in the Blue Grass losing by a head bob to Dominican in his first try on the junk.

Pryo in one word was awful. I dont think he got much out of it and this places added pressure on the trainer to get him extra fit off just workouts. Not a real good plan.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Gander

Big difference in Pyro's awful Blue Grass and Funny Cide and Monarchos' Wood Memorials. Neither of those two won it, but both very respectable and obviously got a lot out of their efforts. Giacomo ran good in the SA Derby, I think it was a hard charging 3rd in a very flukey race where I think Buzzards Bay won. Street Sense ran very well in the Blue Grass losing by a head bob to Dominican in his first try on the junk.

Pryo in one word was awful. I dont think he got much out of it and this places added pressure on the trainer to get him extra fit off just workouts. Not a real good plan.

street sense ran well, he lost to dominican, who he was probably daylight better than at the time. on dirt i think he beat dominican by over 15 lengths. that poly crap is just that crap. the truth is street sense probably ran 10 lengths worse than any other race he ran, that day. i love the defection the price will just go up. he didn't need anything out of that race, but to stay fresh and out of trouble. pyro fired his best race of a layoff as long as he healthy i'm not worried at all. good at 2 better at 3, he loses once and everbodies reading the crap these people write in the paper and form at derby time. i guess hes the highest money earner by "magic" too .