Best Derby bets

obviously without post positions considered with the information at this time.

1. Great Hunter (ONeill cant win anything but this horse is good with the proper running style; lost last time out, all the better.)

2. Scat Daddy (Pletcher has never won a Derby... so what he can train, this is a very tough animal)

3. Any Given Saturday (same as above)

4. Hard Spun (nothing but excuses so far but I still think he is good)

Im thinkin Scat Daddy is probably the only one of the above that goes off at less than 10-1. Once the post positions gets settled I will probably take a stab with one of these.

Curlin may very well be the most talented animal but having faced no difficulities I got to forget him in the upcoming stampede. Street Sense has been in a number of wars, so out of the favorites, I would think he has the best chance. Already know he can run on the track. Bottom line is this thing is wide open. We have some throwout speed death and some mentioned in the other posts I basically agree with. (CQ is a no go with me, workouts be damned)

[Zaf]

I think Great Hunter would be a very good play at 10-1 or higher.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Zaf

I think Great Hunter would be a very good play at 10-1 or higher.

i agree. go to wsex.com(possibly the most misleading domain name ever), make a deposit, and lock him in at 20-1 now. i keep thinking they will drop his odds but apparently no one else is betting this.

world sports exchange. after that come over to the poker room and say hi to me (thank_you_come_again).

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i agree. go to wsex.com(possibly the most misleading domain name ever), make a deposit, and lock him in at 20-1 now. i keep thinking they will drop his odds but apparently no one else is betting this.

world sports exchange. after that come over to the poker room and say hi to me (thank_you_come_again).

I agree. About WSEX being misleading, not about Great Hunter. You'd think they would've plucked out the E when starting their site.

At last the fat man hath arrived to lead us to thee promised land.

Where hath ye been, oh astute watcher of horse stride and premature moves?

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by pgardn

obviously without post positions considered with the information at this time.

1. Great Hunter (ONeill cant win anything but this horse is good with the proper running style; lost last time out, all the better.)

2. Scat Daddy (Pletcher has never won a Derby... so what he can train, this is a very tough animal)

3. Any Given Saturday (same as above)

4. Hard Spun (nothing but excuses so far but I still think he is good)

Im thinkin Scat Daddy is probably the only one of the above that goes off at less than 10-1. Once the post positions gets settled I will probably take a stab with one of these.

Curlin may very well be the most talented animal but having faced no difficulities I got to forget him in the upcoming stampede. Street Sense has been in a number of wars, so out of the favorites, I would think he has the best chance. Already know he can run on the track. Bottom line is this thing is wide open. We have some throwout speed death and some mentioned in the other posts I basically agree with. (CQ is a no go with me, workouts be damned)

Great minds think alike!
Throw in Street Sense and I come down to your five in some sort of order...
lending toward this way; SS/GH/SC/HS/AGS

[Thunder Gulch]

Scat Daddy is the one I'm really having trouble. I think he's really talented, but is he Thunder Gulch, or is he More than Ready? Both would give you all they had, but only one of those would get the distance. If I can get 10-1 or better, he's on the tickets somewhere.

[slotdirt]

I am curious about the pace of the race. Who's going to the front and how fast? I could see a horse like Hard Spun finding himself on the lead by default and War Emblem-ing the field. That is, if Stormello does what we think he'll do and Teuflesberg's connections find it in the heart to skip the race.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I am curious about the pace of the race. Who's going to the front and how fast? I could see a horse like Hard Spun finding himself on the lead by default and War Emblem-ing the field. That is, if Stormello does what we think he'll do and Teuflesberg's connections find it in the heart to skip the race.

It could be interesting. And what about NoBiz? he doesn't seem to like to rate very much.

So far the death by speed is there. And that puts Nobiz is some trouble in my mind. He cant hold back from all indications. I think Nobiz is a monster of a horse but he just does not get it. If he wins by running up front the whole way then hats off to him. Maybe later on. He burns in Derby imo.

If Curlin can find a clean run like he has in his prior races, big, big trouble for all. But I will stick with the four horses I mentioned pending post positions and odds. This is always a win/place bet for me. No exotics. Too much slime getting into the money with the added furlong and lack of restraint by young runners. And I have a hard time figuring the slime that slips in. I usually get Giacomowed out of anything.

[ateamstupid]

Anyone know if the Derby will have 10-cent supers? Doubt it, but I wanna hit the thing and I can't really afford to put $700 into a super ticket.

[timmgirvan]

Doubt it,buddy! You can hit a nice tri for alot less!!

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Anyone know if the Derby will have 10-cent supers? Doubt it, but I wanna hit the thing and I can't really afford to put $700 into a super ticket.

The powers that be at CD have decided that the 10 cent super is only ok at all their other tracks but not CD. Ask them why and get about 20 different reason, none of which seem to make any sense.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Anyone know if the Derby will have 10-cent supers? Doubt it, but I wanna hit the thing and I can't really afford to put $700 into a super ticket.

Speaking of getting people interested in our sport, the ten cent super is PERFECT for the Derby,
why Churchill and NYRA doesn't have them is beyond me!

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Speaking of getting people interested in our sport, the ten cent super is PERFECT for the Derby,
why Churchill and NYRA doesn't have them is beyond me!

Can you imagine how much fun we'd have at that on Edwards Street with all the talk he have of Collusion bets??

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Can you imagine how much fun we'd have at that on Edwards Street with all the talk he have of Collusion bets??

Unfortunately mostly all we DO is talk!!!

pgardn: I usually agree w/ most of what you say, you sound very knowledgeable and your posts are well thought out. All I would offer to say is that, nearly every time I make a mistake handicapping it is because I assume something will happen w/o having any logical/objective reason for it to happen. Then I ask myself: "Why did I do that? What the hell was I thinking?"

You quote the odds on Curlin. I think you are letting the odds dictate how you will treat this horse. Your strategy is to beat Curlin with the rationale that: if I can beat Curlin I can take out maybe 20% of the money in the pool. Sure it would be nice to beat Curlin and to assume that he will not win, or not place or whatever. It would be great to know that there is 20% of the pool that I do not have to worry about. It's not really an objective strategy to say "I will beat the favorite because..."

It's the low odds on Curlin that is driving your decision or rationalizing it. At least that is what I am suggesting. It is true he hasnt faced this level, but we dont really know how he will react. I played against him last time out, for no real good reason.

But an objective look would also tell you that over the long haul the parimutual pool does a great job of predicting the actual horses odds (assuming such "actual odds" is a real thing). Perhaps Curlin does not have the best chance but objectively he probably has a decent chance here. So the upshoot is that unless you have a real objective reason as to why he cant win, then all you're doing is taking a real horse w/ a real shot at winning and hoping that he doesnt come in. He might not come in, but if you continue to play that way, over the long haul it will not work. You may toss 2 or 3other horses, with real shots, sooner or later one of them will come in.

So the argument about Curlins odds is interesting but ultimately all it proves is that he might have a good chance if the public hasnt totally lost it's mind.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pgardn

obviously without post positions considered with the information at this time.

1. Great Hunter (ONeill cant win anything but this horse is good with the proper running style; lost last time out, all the better.)

2. Scat Daddy (Pletcher has never won a Derby... so what he can train, this is a very tough animal)

3. Any Given Saturday (same as above)

4. Hard Spun (nothing but excuses so far but I still think he is good)

Im thinkin Scat Daddy is probably the only one of the above that goes off at less than 10-1. Once the post positions gets settled I will probably take a stab with one of these.

Curlin may very well be the most talented animal but having faced no difficulities I got to forget him in the upcoming stampede. Street Sense has been in a number of wars, so out of the favorites, I would think he has the best chance. Already know he can run on the track. Bottom line is this thing is wide open. We have some throwout speed death and some mentioned in the other posts I basically agree with. (CQ is a no go with me, workouts be damned)

still only one loss--not much need for excuses, which is why it blows my mind that they keep making them for him!!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

still only one loss--not much need for excuses, which is why it blows my mind that they keep making them for him!!

Agreed.. I think Hard Spun may be the forgotten horse in this Derby..

[Danzig]

ateam, i've been watching that guy all spring--wasn't so sure that he was derby material, but i haven't seen anything to take me off him. so i will be backing him for the race. shame tho, that i'm hoping to only see him run a few more times at the most, eh?!