Casino Drive Beyer vs Unbridleds Heart Beyer

[Better Than Honour]

Can someone explain how Unbridleds Heart got a 100 beyer and Casino Drive only a 99? I got the Unbridleds Heart Beyer at 100 but shouldn't than make Casino Drive a 104 or 105 beyer?

If you look at the Bold Ruler it was pretty obvious the track didn't speed up.

I like to use beyers but this 99 figure needs to be adjusted.

It doesn't really matter though, I think he needed the race and he wants more distance. My only fear is the Japanese come over here and bet him down to even money.

[RolloTomasi]

I think Beyer and Associates has significant shares in Unbridled's Song as a stallion, while they were burned a couple of years ago when they sold off their shares in A.P. Indy, who was beginning to look like a dud at the time. There is a bit of bias nowadays as far as certain bloodlines go.

Its racing's version of the Cold War.

[MISTERGEE]

were those race 1 or 2 turns? I know that if they were at 2 turns the 1:47 4/5 owuld be 7 pts higher. so even at 1 turn higher still i dont get it

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

were those race 1 or 2 turns? I know that if they were at 2 turns the 1:47 4/5 owuld be 7 pts higher. so even at 1 turn higher still i dont get it

How can you be taken seriously if you don't know that those distances at Belmont are around one turn?

The difference should be 5 points on raw figures. If making figures were as simple as using one variant for every race card, life would be easy. Now, I certainly question my share of Beyer figures, but I at least usually understand why the figure given was assigned. Obviously, in the case, the figure maker (Hopkins I assume) split the variant. I haven't looked at the whole card, only the routes, but even if there wasn't a race run after the Peter Pan there is a good basis for splitting the variant.

The reason, quite simply, is Mint Lane. You have a horse that has raced six times, 5 in similarly distanced races. He had run well on three occasions and earned Beyer figures of 86, 88, and 87. All of these were done running loose on the lead, ideal circumstances to record high figures. If you give Casino Drive a 105, you are saying Mint Lane suddenly, while dueling on the lead, rand a 96.

Possible? Sure it is. But what is more likely? With the Beyer of 99 assigned to the winner, Mint Lane gets a 90. I am not saying that is what I will go with, and look forward to going over the whole card soon. The last race will certainly play a factor in my decision.

Like I said, I don't always agree with Beyer or his associates, but it isn't like the figures are done haphazardly and spit out. If you don't like it, you can use BRIS or Equibase figures which are done mechanically. Good luck with that experiment.

Here is a link that contains the Beyer charts for future reference for those interested: http://www.angelfire.com/la2/wahoo/AB.SPRC.html.

[MISTERGEE]

thank you for not taking me seriously as I was just checking. how can you believe in a split variant in this case when the races not only were run on the same day but also without any significant change in conditions and were even not far apart in time between races?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

thank you for not taking me seriously as I was just checking. how can you believe in a split variant in this case when the races not only were run on the same day but also without any significant change in conditions and were even not far apart in time between races?

Just busting your chops a little, don't take it serious...

All it takes is a little work on the track by the maintenance crew. There was a turf race in between, which is usually a prime time for working on the dirt track.

Understanding the horses in any given race is just as important at looking at how all the races relate to each other.

[MISTERGEE]

chops just slightly sore but thanks for the info

[MISTERGEE]

by the way ever see any beyer one turn charts for over a mile?

[blackthroatedwind]

The time of the 10th race backs up the split variant.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

How can you be taken seriously if you don't know that those distances at Belmont are around one turn?

The difference should be 5 points on raw figures. If making figures were as simple as using one variant for every race card, life would be easy. Now, I certainly question my share of Beyer figures, but I at least usually understand why the figure given was assigned. Obviously, in the case, the figure maker (Hopkins I assume) split the variant. I haven't looked at the whole card, only the routes, but even if there wasn't a race run after the Peter Pan there is a good basis for splitting the variant.

The reason, quite simply, is Mint Lane. You have a horse that has raced six times, 5 in similarly distanced races. He had run well on three occasions and earned Beyer figures of 86, 88, and 87. All of these were done running loose on the lead, ideal circumstances to record high figures. If you give Casino Drive a 105, you are saying Mint Lane suddenly, while dueling on the lead, rand a 96.

Possible? Sure it is. But what is more likely? With the Beyer of 99 assigned to the winner, Mint Lane gets a 90. I am not saying that is what I will go with, and look forward to going over the whole card soon. The last race will certainly play a factor in my decision.

Like I said, I don't always agree with Beyer or his associates, but it isn't like the figures are done haphazardly and spit out. If you don't like it, you can use BRIS or Equibase figures which are done mechanically. Good luck with that experiment.

Here is a link that contains the Beyer charts for future reference for those interested: http://www.angelfire.com/la2/wahoo/AB.SPRC.html.

Bravo!

[MISTERGEE]

raw beyer of 98 for mdspwt oops

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

by the way ever see any beyer one turn charts for over a mile?

No, you have to make them yourself. There are only a few tracks that do it (Bel, Cnl come to mind) so after a season or so it isn't too hard to figure them out.

[MISTERGEE]

first race at bel cheap claimer ran 89 raw so was it that different first to last?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

first race at bel cheap claimer ran 89 raw so was it that different first to last?

The winner of the first had run his last three races with Beyers of 67, 61, and 60 with a last 10 top of 77. Now the last was a win, but he seems to be improving back towards that 77. He beat McCalmont by a nose, and that horse very consistently runs around 70. So I'd project a figure of around 71 for the race, meaning the track was fast by 18 points.

The last race was run with a raw figure of 99, a sorry off the turf contest for NY bred MSWs. The winner had one lifetime race where he ran well and earned a 67. The runner up is a pretty bad animal who ran a 38 in his lone start at 24 to 1. The 3rd place horse is a terrible maiden, Another Hades, destined for Finger Lakes. He is an up and down type in his 10 races, and when he runs well he tops out in the mid 60s.

The winner beat Another Hades by 5 lengths, which is about 12 points. If you assume he ran his best, which is a stretch, the winner projects to improve about 10 points to a 77, which is pretty reasonable. That means the track was 22 points fast, or four points faster than the first race. The Beyer guy changed the variant 6 points, and it makes sense to me because I doubt AH ran his top.

Of course, there are other races in between to consider as well, but this post is long enough already to make the general point.

[Kasept]

CJ..

Thanks for the invaluable explanations... I know you've repeated this material many, many times and it must be drudgerous... But every time you do it, you answer many, many questions for people looking to understood the nuances of figures in general (and BSF's specifically), and many more that have always wanted to ask somewhere but felt intimidated in the setting.

So... thx.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ..

Thanks for the invaluable explanations... I know you've repeated this material many, many times and it must be drudgerous... But every time you do it, you answer many, many questions for people looking to understood the nuances of figures in general (and BSF's specifically), and many more that have always wanted to ask somewhere but felt intimidated in the setting.

So... thx.

CJ's explanation was excellent. Although I think the best way to understand how Beyer calculates his figs is to read Picking Winners and then read Beyer On Speed.

Beyer is an outstanding storyteller and does a great job mixing in stories of his experiences using his figs with how they are calculated.

[blackthroatedwind]

CJ sucks and should be banned.

[cmorioles]

You just hate the Irish.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

You just hate the Irish.

If you were Irish I would hate you more.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

How can you be taken seriously if you don't know that those distances at Belmont are around one turn?

The difference should be 5 points on raw figures. If making figures were as simple as using one variant for every race card, life would be easy. Now, I certainly question my share of Beyer figures, but I at least usually understand why the figure given was assigned. Obviously, in the case, the figure maker (Hopkins I assume) split the variant. I haven't looked at the whole card, only the routes, but even if there wasn't a race run after the Peter Pan there is a good basis for splitting the variant.

The reason, quite simply, is Mint Lane. You have a horse that has raced six times, 5 in similarly distanced races. He had run well on three occasions and earned Beyer figures of 86, 88, and 87. All of these were done running loose on the lead, ideal circumstances to record high figures. If you give Casino Drive a 105, you are saying Mint Lane suddenly, while dueling on the lead, rand a 96.

Possible? Sure it is. But what is more likely? With the Beyer of 99 assigned to the winner, Mint Lane gets a 90. I am not saying that is what I will go with, and look forward to going over the whole card soon. The last race will certainly play a factor in my decision.

Like I said, I don't always agree with Beyer or his associates, but it isn't like the figures are done haphazardly and spit out. If you don't like it, you can use BRIS or Equibase figures which are done mechanically. Good luck with that experiment.

Here is a link that contains the Beyer charts for future reference for those interested: http://www.angelfire.com/la2/wahoo/AB.SPRC.html.

Excellent explanation, I know I posed this question this morning. But given that Mint Lane set a contested perhaps quicker than honest pace, and his previous beyers were as stated 86, 88, and 87 in more favorable pace scenarios. Was his 2nd place finish yesterday more flattering due to his lack of competition and if so Casino Drive's race while nice, was not as impressive as first visually thought. Personally I was more impressed by Harlem Rocker's race in the Withers.