Best Derby bets

obviously without post positions considered with the information at this time.

1. Great Hunter (ONeill cant win anything but this horse is good with the proper running style; lost last time out, all the better.)

2. Scat Daddy (Pletcher has never won a Derby... so what he can train, this is a very tough animal)

3. Any Given Saturday (same as above)

4. Hard Spun (nothing but excuses so far but I still think he is good)

Im thinkin Scat Daddy is probably the only one of the above that goes off at less than 10-1. Once the post positions gets settled I will probably take a stab with one of these.

Curlin may very well be the most talented animal but having faced no difficulities I got to forget him in the upcoming stampede. Street Sense has been in a number of wars, so out of the favorites, I would think he has the best chance. Already know he can run on the track. Bottom line is this thing is wide open. We have some throwout speed death and some mentioned in the other posts I basically agree with. (CQ is a no go with me, workouts be damned)

[Zaf]

I think Great Hunter would be a very good play at 10-1 or higher.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by pgardn

obviously without post positions considered with the information at this time.

1. Great Hunter (ONeill cant win anything but this horse is good with the proper running style; lost last time out, all the better.)

2. Scat Daddy (Pletcher has never won a Derby... so what he can train, this is a very tough animal)

3. Any Given Saturday (same as above)

4. Hard Spun (nothing but excuses so far but I still think he is good)

Im thinkin Scat Daddy is probably the only one of the above that goes off at less than 10-1. Once the post positions gets settled I will probably take a stab with one of these.

Curlin may very well be the most talented animal but having faced no difficulities I got to forget him in the upcoming stampede. Street Sense has been in a number of wars, so out of the favorites, I would think he has the best chance. Already know he can run on the track. Bottom line is this thing is wide open. We have some throwout speed death and some mentioned in the other posts I basically agree with. (CQ is a no go with me, workouts be damned)

Great minds think alike!
Throw in Street Sense and I come down to your five in some sort of order...
lending toward this way; SS/GH/SC/HS/AGS

[Thunder Gulch]

Scat Daddy is the one I'm really having trouble. I think he's really talented, but is he Thunder Gulch, or is he More than Ready? Both would give you all they had, but only one of those would get the distance. If I can get 10-1 or better, he's on the tickets somewhere.

[slotdirt]

I am curious about the pace of the race. Who's going to the front and how fast? I could see a horse like Hard Spun finding himself on the lead by default and War Emblem-ing the field. That is, if Stormello does what we think he'll do and Teuflesberg's connections find it in the heart to skip the race.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I am curious about the pace of the race. Who's going to the front and how fast? I could see a horse like Hard Spun finding himself on the lead by default and War Emblem-ing the field. That is, if Stormello does what we think he'll do and Teuflesberg's connections find it in the heart to skip the race.

It could be interesting. And what about NoBiz? he doesn't seem to like to rate very much.

So far the death by speed is there. And that puts Nobiz is some trouble in my mind. He cant hold back from all indications. I think Nobiz is a monster of a horse but he just does not get it. If he wins by running up front the whole way then hats off to him. Maybe later on. He burns in Derby imo.

If Curlin can find a clean run like he has in his prior races, big, big trouble for all. But I will stick with the four horses I mentioned pending post positions and odds. This is always a win/place bet for me. No exotics. Too much slime getting into the money with the added furlong and lack of restraint by young runners. And I have a hard time figuring the slime that slips in. I usually get Giacomowed out of anything.

[ateamstupid]

Anyone know if the Derby will have 10-cent supers? Doubt it, but I wanna hit the thing and I can't really afford to put $700 into a super ticket.

[timmgirvan]

Doubt it,buddy! You can hit a nice tri for alot less!!

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Anyone know if the Derby will have 10-cent supers? Doubt it, but I wanna hit the thing and I can't really afford to put $700 into a super ticket.

The powers that be at CD have decided that the 10 cent super is only ok at all their other tracks but not CD. Ask them why and get about 20 different reason, none of which seem to make any sense.

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by pgardn

So far the death by speed is there. And that puts Nobiz is some trouble in my mind. He cant hold back from all indications. I think Nobiz is a monster of a horse but he just does not get it. If he wins by running up front the whole way then hats off to him. Maybe later on. He burns in Derby imo.

If Curlin can find a clean run like he has in his prior races, big, big trouble for all. But I will stick with the four horses I mentioned pending post positions and odds. This is always a win/place bet for me. No exotics. Too much slime getting into the money with the added furlong and lack of restraint by young runners. And I have a hard time figuring the slime that slips in. I usually get Giacomowed out of anything.

I've always felt Nobiz was going to be the Belmont Stakes winner.

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

I've always felt Nobiz was going to be the Belmont Stakes winner.

In order for this to happen some big changes in this horses running style "will" are going to have to change. He cant be tugging on the lead until he gets tired and finally relaxes. That wont work for a mile and a half.

[Rileyoriley]

Agreed. Just feel he needs one more race in those blinkers to learn to relax. Unforetuneately, the Derby is his next race.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Anyone know if the Derby will have 10-cent supers? Doubt it, but I wanna hit the thing and I can't really afford to put $700 into a super ticket.

Speaking of getting people interested in our sport, the ten cent super is PERFECT for the Derby,
why Churchill and NYRA doesn't have them is beyond me!

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Curlin may very well be the most talented animal but having faced no difficulities I got to forget him in the upcoming stampede.

If Curlin can find a clean run like he has in his prior races, big, big trouble for all.

I'm intrigued by this often used approach. It seems that if a horse has done all that's been asked of it, the only kink in its armor is that it hasn't faced some sort of adversity (or, more precisely, an impossible to win from trip). And the implication seems to be that if it does, it won't win (or even peripherally that perhaps one or more of the others has faced adversity and fared better.)

Let's face it, NONE of these horses can win with a poor trip. Probably every single one (with the possible exception of Scat Daddy) needs the race to go its own way for it to win. But that's not saying much because that pretty much sums up racing in general.

Not saying that I think Curlin wins the race, although, IMO, he's been the most impressive horse this year, but why would I try to beat him HOPING that he gets a poor trip? That's actually rhetorical cause if the odds are right, it's the proper play. I realize that 3rd time HAS to be the charm with Albarado.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm intrigued by this often used approach. It seems that if a horse has done all that's been asked of it, the only kink in its armor is that it hasn't faced some sort of adversity (or, more precisely, an impossible to win from trip). And the implication seems to be that if it does, it won't win (or even peripherally that perhaps one or more of the others has faced adversity and fared better.)

Let's face it, NONE of these horses can win with a poor trip. Probably every single one (with the possible exception of Scat Daddy) needs the race to go its own way for it to win. But that's not saying much because that pretty much sums up racing in general.

Not saying that I think Curlin wins the race, although, IMO, he's been the most impressive horse this year, but why would I try to beat him HOPING that he gets a poor trip? That's actually rhetorical cause if the odds are right, it's the proper play. I realize that 3rd time HAS to be the charm with Albarado.

And thats the point. This is a stampede. There have to be some horrible trips. I dont see a Smarty Jones that can get out of the gate incredibly quickly, immediately find himself a good spot, run at a very tough pace holding a nice clean position, and have more than enough for the end. There is no horse with this capability. Curlin and Street Sense do not have this capability imo, especially Street Sense. They all need some luck. So I am going for the longer odds given that every horse needs racing luck. There is no horse that I can see, based on prior races, that will just lay it down and make the race his. Smarty JOnes and Barbaro did not suprise me. I did not know if they would win, but the fact they came in and dominated was not a shocker. I dont see any horse doing this in May.
The only horses with the physical capability of doing this are Nobiz and Curlin imo. If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it. If Nobiz (who has the style) does this people will say look at this monster of a horse, everyone could see he was getting better at understanding his job after the blinks and going deaf, I wont. I will be suprised.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Zaf

I think Great Hunter would be a very good play at 10-1 or higher.

i agree. go to wsex.com(possibly the most misleading domain name ever), make a deposit, and lock him in at 20-1 now. i keep thinking they will drop his odds but apparently no one else is betting this.

world sports exchange. after that come over to the poker room and say hi to me (thank_you_come_again).

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i agree. go to wsex.com(possibly the most misleading domain name ever), make a deposit, and lock him in at 20-1 now. i keep thinking they will drop his odds but apparently no one else is betting this.

world sports exchange. after that come over to the poker room and say hi to me (thank_you_come_again).

I agree. About WSEX being misleading, not about Great Hunter. You'd think they would've plucked out the E when starting their site.

At last the fat man hath arrived to lead us to thee promised land.

Where hath ye been, oh astute watcher of horse stride and premature moves?

Look at this::

Originally Posted by pgardn

If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it...

What is objective about this? You imagine a scene where Curlin hates being behind horse. I imagine a scene where No Biz sprouts wings and flies over the final quarter; what good is that?