Speed figures

[Eclipse]

How do people use these, and how do the various different speed figures compare? I've read about Beyer speed figures, but don't know how to access those, am not willing to pay. I do use Equibase speed figures sometimes, mainly to be the deciding factor between horses I like pretty much equally otherwise, then I look at recent Equibase speed figures.

[moses]

I think it depends on the speed figure. I really like Craig Milkowski’s Timeform speed figures, particularly for dirt races. When I was betting frequently, I would often listen to the podcast he does with David Aragona (who I think is probably the best ML maker out there and who has some really interesting analysis.)

Of course, I use Beyer as well.

The main thing I try to do is use them as a general guide on whether a horse is likely to be competitive in a race to see if I can figure out a good value play. A lot of people use Beyer so I feel like the post time odds adjust for that but there are often horses with very good Timeform figures who fly under the radar.

So the Fountain of Youth, Simplification and Emmanuel will be the two favorites most likely but neither really has a significant Timeform edge (I’ve only got the raw numbers right now but I believe Dean Delivers has the highest Timeform figure coming into the race and he’s 15-1). So even though I do like Simplification for a variety of reasons, I don’t think there is any way I’d ever bet him at 5/2 for this race. I think that’s a race where the figures suggest it’s worth taking a shot on a longshot so I’ll probably do that (I’m going to roll with Howling Time whose Timeform figure from the Street Sense puts him in contention and if he improves off of that at all, has a shot to upset. I also note the very fast recent workouts so although he’s coming off a long layoff, worth a shot to me if he’s 15/1 or higher.)

[Eclipse]

Thanks for the info, moses. Good stuff to think about and look into.

Howling Time is in my Virtual Stable so I was aware of the fast workouts plus I've liked him for a long time, think his last race can be tossed. Unlike other races he set the pace instead of coming from behind, plus high quality field, don't know if this was some kind of experiment with sending him to lead or what. Apparently connections are not upset with Talamo since they're having him come to OP for this, so my guess is he was instructed to do that, but won't be tomorrow, will come from behind. Will he catch Emmanuel?

Equibase speed figures put those two right together also, with Howling Time earning a 96 in the Street Sense and Emmanuel 98 in his last start. I love sires and BM sires of both, and Pletcher.

I also like Simplification but not enough to bet him at those odds, hope he doesn't prove me wrong.

Go Howling Time!

[moses]

Originally Posted by Eclipse

Thanks for the info, moses. Good stuff to think about and look into.

Howling Time is in my Virtual Stable so I was aware of the fast workouts plus I've liked him for a long time, think his last race can be tossed. Unlike other races he set the pace instead of coming from behind, plus high quality field, don't know if this was some kind of experiment with sending him to lead or what. Apparently connections are not upset with Talamo since they're having him come to OP for this, so my guess is he was instructed to do that, but won't be tomorrow, will come from behind. Will he catch Emmanuel?

Equibase speed figures put those two right together also, with Howling Time earning a 96 in the Street Sense and Emmanuel 98 in his last start. I love sires and BM sires of both, and Pletcher.

I also like Simplification but not enough to bet him at those odds, hope he doesn't prove me wrong.

Go Howling Time!

No problem. Just take everything I said and do the opposite because I’m no good at this game.