Calvin Borel continues to make the CD toteboard explode

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Through the first six days of the 2007 Churchill Downs meet the jockey scoreboard reads as follows....

Win Mutuals of $20 or greater:
Calvin Borel (5)
All Other Jocks (4)

Win Mutuals of $50 or greater:
Calvin Borel (3)
All Other Jocks (0)

Forget about what's happend this year though,

In what is almost certainly the most statistically mind-boggling thing I've ever seen acomplished from a jockey, Calvin Borel finished with an other-worldly $3.30 ROI, from his 446 mounts at Churchill Downs in 2006.

How, exactly, is it humanly possible for a rider to produce a 65% profit on a betting dollar, from a sample size of that many races? I guess scoring a few key upsets at the '06 Churchill Spring meet played a role in that, including a 91/1 upset in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster on the ultra moderate Seek Gold.

Borel's '06 fall meet at Churchill was even more brilliant, winning one major upset after another. He also took down his first Breeders Cup race, when he gave 15/1 shot Street Sense what was without question the most jaw-dropping ballsy ride seen in any major stake race last year.

Borel's ride on Street Sense that day is as close a thing to "the perfect ride" as I've ever seen. Street Sense, who hung in the stretch in his first two route tries, was wisely taken back to 11th behind a scorching early pace. He rode the live rail path every step of the way. With exhusted horses stopping in front of him, Borel never made any attempt to leave the rail with SS, he daringly thread the needle, at one point appearing to literally scrape paint.

Borel averaged a $20+ win mutual with his first 23 wins at CD's fall meet. At one point, a story broke that an anonymous bettor was betting perhaps up to thousands of dollars on each one of Borel's mounts. In fact, one day, when Borel took off all his mounts, the bettor, apperently unaware of the news, made his bets anyway. Each mount Borel was named on opened up as the heavy favorite, and drifited way up by the time the race started.

The Borel magic struck on opening day at this Churchill meet. Guiding longshot Deputy Sammie to a 34/1 upset victory, with another rail-skimming ride. Later on in the opening day card, he scored another victory with a $17.80 mutual, and guided longshot UD Ghetto to a 2nd place finish in the Derby Trial.

In the first six days of Churchill Downs 2007, Borel has won FIVE races with win mutual of $25.00 or better. THREE of those wins coming with horses who won at odds of 25/1 or better.

Longshot riding Borel once won an Arkansas Derby with 100/1 shot Rockamundo, but didn't do so well on Derby day. This time, he gets to ride the favorite....and certainly many bettors have to wonder how much Street Sense's form was moved up by those two off-the-chart rides Borel gave SS in his two Graded Stake wins.

In a 20 horse field, with all the other riders aware of his dedication to riding the rail, we should now finally get to find out what Street Sense is capable of, when he doesn't get a magical rail-skimming ride from Calvin.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It will be.

It's long been a staple of my betting strategy to try and beat a favorite like Street Sense, a horse who has never run, what I believe, was a particularly strong race without the aid of a perfect trip...and doesn't appear certain to get that perfect trip again.

I understand that he's a very lukewarm favorite at 9/2, but, it's just against my nature to take a horse like him.

He hung in each of his three route races when he wasn't able to get the patented Borel rail trip---albeit two came over polytrack, and one came over an off-track.

I can understand why people would bet him, against that group, even at 9/2 odds...and I won't be shocked if he wins without his trip...but, he's just the kind of horse I want to avoid on the win end.

His mother won in her only career start over an off-track, and he's certainly bred to handle mud---so maybe he's a much improved horse since that loss in Chicago at two. We shall see.

[whorstman]

Calvin Borel is a beast. Churchill is his track. He really knows how to ride it. It's not by accident. He seems to get the proper ride out of whoever he rides. Which is why he will win or place in the Derby.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am going to box he and Any Given Saturday in a exacta a few times, but to be honest it does sort of bother me that everyone seems to like Any given Saturday. I know it doesn't really matter, but there are a lot of people following your lead on him.

he's 21-1 while tiago is 10-1.

i'd take some heart from those friday night odds.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If you compare Giacomo's form with Tiago's form---not only does Tiago's not look any better at all....but Giacomo's form was littered with sneaky good efforts.

All those people who felt the need to knock Curlin, based on historical old trends and stuff, well shouldn't the same apply to Tiago?

He was less than one week away from not racing as a 2-year-old, and he's only had four career races.

I guess Tiago's this years version of what people call "the wiseguy horse" -- but, I never really "got" that term anyway....so I don't know.

If I had to take a horse out of the Santa Anita Derby---it would most certainly be Sam P. --- I felt he got very rank in blinkers for the first time in the SA Derby, he's as one-paced as they come--and Ramon isn't going to move too soon....he can round out a superfecta for sure.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He was less than one week away from not racing as a 2-year-old, and he's only had four career races.

I guess Tiago's this years version of what people call "the wiseguy horse" -- but, I never really "got" that term anyway....so I don't know.

If I had to take a horse out of the Santa Anita Derby---it would most certainly be Sam P. --- I felt he got very rank in blinkers for the first time in the SA Derby, he's as one-paced as they come--and Ramon isn't going to move too soon....he can round out a superfecta for sure.

Yeah I guess with Chelokee not in, Tiago's getting the attention. Given all the talk I'd assumed Zanjero would get more of a 'wiseguy horse' label but he's still a long price. Didn't Fusaichi Pegasus do the almost no starts at 2 thing and total races thing similarly to Tiago?

I kinda enjoy Sam P. for his Cat Thief/Affirmed relations. The thing is I feel like I've heard about him more than noticed him even though I've watched races with him in it. Visually it must not've popped to me but I might go back and watch them again.

Are they not taking the blinkers off of Sam P. for this one? That is my understanding, hmmm. Wonder if that PP thing on the internet is uptodate should I rely on that?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Sam P. got rank in blinkers last time....and I know Pletcher isn't a fool, I expect they will be off in the Derby.

The set of past performances I downloaded on Wednesday doesn't make note of either Sam P. or Liquidity taking the hood off....

However, the pp's on the racing forms website have them coming off.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...erby_basic.pdf

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In a 20 horse field, with all the other riders aware of his dedication to riding the rail, we should now finally get to find out what Street Sense is capable of, when he doesn't get a magical rail-skimming ride from Calvin.

Well DrugS, you were right on about Calvin...but the quote above shows that even YOU underestimated his ability.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Or, perhaps I underestimated the competence of the other riders in the race.

Borel's ride today was the single greatest ride I've seen in my life.

It was Houdini on horseback.....I don't think anything else can describe it.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Or, perhaps I underestimated the competence of the other riders in the race.

Borel's ride today was the single greatest ride I've seen in my life.

It was Houdini on horseback.....I don't think anything else can describe it.

Gotta have the right horse to make that happen. And some luck.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Or, perhaps I underestimated the competence of the other riders in the race.

Borel's ride today was the single greatest ride I've seen in my life.

It was Houdini on horseback.....I don't think anything else can describe it.

I think you mean you overestimated their competence, but you are right.....it was an absolutely fantastic ride.
I don't know if it was about anything the other jocks did wrong as much as it was him doing everything right.

[Antitrust32]

Mr. Bo-rail was the happiest little guy on the planet! Oh I was so thrilled for him!

no more bc juvi curse bs! yes!!