Lava Man to Dubai

[miraja2]

Is this old news? I just read about it on drf.com (http://www.drf.com/news/article/83183.html)
This move makes no sense to me at all.
KEEP HIM IN CALIFORNIA!!!

[Danzig]

altho many think he should stay where he's been so successful--why not take the chance? yeah, he's winless when shipping, but he bounces right back when he gets home.
besides, you don't know if you don't try.


good luck in dubai lava man! we'll be rooting for ya!

c'mon, you know you'll pull for him.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

why not take the chance? yeah, he's winless when shipping, but he bounces right back when he gets home.

While I still think that sending him to Dubai is a terrible idea, Danzig188 does make a good point here. The Dubai trip might not ruin him. Remember when they sent him to Japan? He ran his usual terrible race when shipped (finished 11th I think) but he bounced back and won the Sunshine Millions two months after that race, and then followed that up with six straight stakes wins that year including 4 G1s. He definitely hates shipping, but it does not really seem to affect his performance once he returns to SoCal.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

altho many think he should stay where he's been so successful--why not take the chance? yeah, he's winless when shipping, but he bounces right back when he gets home.
besides, you don't know if you don't try.


good luck in dubai lava man! we'll be rooting for ya!

c'mon, you know you'll pull for him.

ditto, ditto, and ditto!

--Dunbar

[horseofcourse]

I hope he does well and returns to Cal in one piece. Everything else is moot. If you're going to ship...go for the big prize. Why ship to Ky for a 500,000 puse Or Il for the Arlington Million when he doesn't ship well there either?? I can see both sides of this argument.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I hope he does well and returns to Cal in one piece. Everything else is moot. If you're going to ship...go for the big prize. Why ship to Ky for a 500,000 puse Or Il for the Arlington Million when he doesn't ship well there either?? I can see both sides of this argument.

You are assuming that if Lava Man runs his best his chances are the same in Dubai as they are in the Woodford Reserve. I don't agree with that assumption at all. Lava Man could ship to Dubai, run his best and still get his butt kicked. If he runs his best in the Woodford Reserve he would have a shot at winning and should at least run top three.

[PPerfectfan]

And its free to go. Lets not forget that! Take a free trip to Dubai to run for a shot at 5 Million. Hey, he isnt a good shipper, why not take the shot for 5 Mil, instead of 500k for the chance he just might hold his form on the grass.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You are assuming that if Lava Man runs his best his chances are the same in Dubai as they are in the Woodford Reserve. I don't agree with that assumption at all. Lava Man could ship to Dubai, run his best and still get his butt kicked. If he runs his best in the Woodford Reserve he would have a shot at winning and should at least run top three.

The way he's shipped, I don't know if he'd have a chance in the Woodford Reserve either. And if that's the case go higher. Personally I don't know if I'd ship him...but the owners have done well by this horse and want to do it. He's won them nearly 5 million dollars. I can't blame them. As I said...I see both sides. He's got this one nagging question of running outside Cal, and in my opinion they might as well try it. I wouldn't ship him at all other than the BC at the end of the year.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

If you're going to ship...go for the big prize. Why ship to Ky for a 500,000 puse Or Il for the Arlington Million when he doesn't ship well there either??

The bigger question is....why ship him at all? It isn't like he only runs well at Fairmount Park so his connections are stuck if they want to make $$ and get him some big G1 and G2 wins.
He runs well at Santa Anita, Hollywood, and Del Mar. There are plenty of good races THERE for him to run in.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I hope he does well and returns to Cal in one piece. Everything else is moot. If you're going to ship...go for the big prize. Why ship to Ky for a 500,000 puse Or Il for the Arlington Million when he doesn't ship well there either?? I can see both sides of this argument.

Amen. I don't know how it can be any more clear. People are saying he can't ship......then advocating shipping to Arlington or Churchill. That doesn't make any sense at all. If they are right and the shipping itself is not the problem but the surfaces have been and they think shipping and running on the grass will be the solution, I'd rather find out that I'm right in a $5 million race rather than a $500k or $1 million one. If they are wrong and it's just the shipping period, then it wouldn't matter if it's Dubai, Chicago, Kentucky, or Japan. Like in spades, u play to win. If u don't play to win, don't sit at the table.

The problem with saying "why not just be happy dominating the division in California" is that they've been there and done that. Over and over again. It's plain boring now. And anyone that's got any kind of competitive streak in them wants to take on a bigger challenge and see where they fit. If Lava Man were to somehow pull this off, he immediately goes on the list among the greatest we've seen in the past 25 years. If they don't even try, he stays on the list as a California wonder that couldn't ever win outside the state.

I don't understand the thinking that running in Dubai has to knock a horse out for a very long period. Didn't Invasor run in Dubai last year and return in the Pimlico Special less than two months later? How did that work out for him?

[pointman]

What I don't get, and I caution this with my limited knowledge, is if the shipping is such a problem, why don't they ship him in 5 or 6 weeks before a race? Can someone with more knowledge than I answer that?

Originally Posted by miraja2

Is this old news? I just read about it on drf.com (http://www.drf.com/news/article/83183.html)
This move makes no sense to me at all.
KEEP HIM IN CALIFORNIA!!!

But, those other races he lost were on dirt, no ? Why not take a chance for a $5 mil purse ? Maybe he's bilingual ! This race will certainly be his last road trip if he underperforms, as they will have no cover.

[Seattleallstar]

lol he can ONLY beat up on glorfied high priced claimers in socal forever, yet they still decide to send him across to Dubai only to lose royally. Unreal

[miraja2]

I will be cheering for him, but if he can't ship to the Midwest, how is he going to ship to the Middle-East?
There are plenty of good races in SoCal and his ability to win on dirt and turf means he could spend the entire year racking up G1s and G2s. Instead they are going to ruin a big chunk of his year on this pointless quest, after he has proven consistently that he does not like to leave SoCal. This makes no sense to me. Why not just be happy dominating both the turf and dirt older horse divisions in Cali? That is impressive enough fo me.

[2Hot4TV]

If he ships to Dubai he will never be the same horse when he comes back to SoCal. I will be the first to say that Lava Mans connections are NUTS and Lava Man is done. You can put a fork in him as soon as he ships.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i would go to churchill for the turf race there, he might run big on turf out of cali, and if he does then you can ship all over the country for big turf races... there are so many big grade 1 turf races with big purses, i dont see why there going to dubai with this guy

[deltagulf]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I will be cheering for him, but if he can't ship to the Midwest, how is he going to ship to the Middle-East?
There are plenty of good races in SoCal and his ability to win on dirt and turf means he could spend the entire year racking up G1s and G2s. Instead they are going to ruin a big chunk of his year on this pointless quest, after he has proven consistently that he does not like to leave SoCal. This makes no sense to me. Why not just be happy dominating both the turf and dirt older horse divisions in Cali? That is impressive enough fo me.

yea but not for 5 million

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by deltagulf

yea but not for 5 million

that's right!! anyone wants to know why they're trying--there are 5 million reasons why!

[whodey17]

This is a great idea. Why not go for the money. Dubai doesnt ruin as many horses as people think. We all know that Lava Man can't ship and win, but he can always return to SoCal and win. He will prob get his butt kicked in Dubai but cant fault the connections for trying.