Va Derby

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First, on not running on the dirt again, that is hardly surprising as I would guess Tagg is one of those trainers that doesn't like to do a lot of surface switching. He certainly knows a lot better than I.

Now, as far as the comment that Showing Up " will " win millions in his career...well that may be jumping the gun. First of all, there isn't THAT much money in turf racing and to win " millions " ( yes I know he has already won around $800K ) he would have to win a few big races. But also, I'm not exactly sure how his win a couple weeks ago stamped him as a superstar. Don't get me wrong, he ran well, better than I thought he would, but he did get a perfect trip behind a blistering pace where he saved all the ground. It also was hardly a spectacular field. He has a lot of improving do, which he certainly can do considering his young age and inexperience, to catch up to even the decent American older horses out there. But, what happens if a few decent Euros show up for next month's Secretariat? My guess is they would offer a very reasonable challenge to Showing Up. What happens if a big field assembles and he doesn't draw an inside post? One thing he does have going for him is tactical speed, along with obvious talent, so he will at least be in a position to make his own trips.

I have to say, I wouldn't be so presumptuous as to argue with decisions from a guy as good as Barcley Tagg, but I can't say this seems like the best time to be conservative. There is the potential for a major payday and as was said earlier....he ran back in the Derby on TWO weeks rest.

I agree that with $600,000 available against a suspect field he needs to take a shot. It is graded too, although my friend said the grade 1 in Arlington would do more for his stud career than the VA Derby. He should win millions though simply because he is going to run at age 4 and after 5 starts he is basically half way there. The horse might not do it with grade 1 wins but there is plenty of money on the turf for him to pick up another 1M over you figure 10 more career starts. The crazy thing is that if he won next weekend he would already have $1.5M. I just don't see why he doesn't skip the Secretariat and take the easier money here. It is pretty obvious to me he liked the turf at Colonial. I still say he winds up going to the race next week.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I agree that with $600,000 available against a suspect field he needs to take a shot. It is graded too, although my friend said the grade 1 in Arlington would do more for his stud career than the VA Derby. He should win millions though simply because he is going to run at age 4 and after 5 starts he is basically half way there. The horse might not do it with grade 1 wins but there is plenty of money on the turf for him to pick up another 1M over you figure 10 more career starts. The crazy thing is that if he won next weekend he would already have $1.5M. I just don't see why he doesn't skip the Secretariat and take the easier money here. It is pretty obvious to me he liked the turf at Colonial. I still say he winds up going to the race next week.

I wouldnt be too optimistic about him even hitting the board against older horses in the Turf Invitational or Turf in the Bc. He picked the wrong year to be born, lol. The older US grass horses are as deep as any group I have ever seen. Cacique, English Channel, Relaxed Gesture, and Better Talk Now are a damn good bunch. Then you have to toss in the extremely good Euros who will both come over for those two races. Tough year for a 3Yo to tackle olders.

[blackthroatedwind]

The Secretariat has some real prestige whereas the Virginia Derby does not ( it is only about ten minutes old ).

Originally Posted by oracle80

I wouldnt be too optimistic about him even hitting the board against older horses in the Turf Invitational or Turf in the Bc. He picked the wrong year to be born, lol. The older US grass horses are as deep as any group I have ever seen. Cacique, English Channel, Relaxed Gesture, and Better Talk Now are a damn good bunch. Then you have to toss in the extremely good Euros who will both come over for those two races. Tough year for a 3Yo to tackle olders.

Next year though he is looking at a pretty weak group of turf horses unless all of these horses hang around. This years 3yo turf horses are terrible.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not especially high on Showing Up, mostly because I simply feel we need to see more, but I'm not so sure it isn't at least POSSIBLE that he could close the gap to the elders this year. I think they are reasonably good, and deeper than the ones we have had in recent years, but I wouldn't exactly call them a fearsome bunch. 3YOs can improve a lot in a short period of time. I know that I didn't think Kitten's Joy would be able to do what he did late in the year at this point two years ago.

Once again, I am not a HUGE fan of Showing Up, mostly because I think he is being overrated based on his win two weeks ago, but I am also not ready to preclude AT LEAST the possibility that he is on equal ground with older horses by the Fall. I'm open minded on this horse.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

http://www.drf.com/news/article/76158.html



It is towards the bottom of the article.

Sounds like he isn't running in the Virginia Derby or the Travers. Tough to go back and forth between turf and dirt.

I agree...two different styles of racing and while allowance and claiming horses might can pull it off, it is a lot harder at the top level...they are even trained a bit different by most outfits...The Secretariat makes sense becasue I'm sure they see it as an opportunity for a great chance to win a Gr. I for the colt in a game where nothing is guaranteed..he could go wrong at any minute so I suppose connections want to chase a Gr. I while he is right...

Personally, I run for the $1 million pay day in what will be a weaker spot in the Va. Derby over the Secretariat - where he may have to face some Euros...but, they obviously would rather being 2-1 for the chance to win a Gr. I versus being odds-on for a $1 million in easier purse money...I can't blame them...money is obviously no concern to them since they've had two 3yos win $1 million+ races already this year....

Additionally, he is a Strategic Mission out of T.V. Commercial mare - so I assume that there strategy is to get as many Gr. Is under his belt as they possible can to enhance his stud value, which is a value that will alwasy have a low ceiling IMO with that pedigree.....He could do as much on the track as Skip Away and Silver Charm and still be regarded as subpar bloodstock in the breeding shed just like those two nice horses.....That is why I would chase the easier purse money with him right now while it presents itself and then tackle the big boys down the road - but I can defunately see their angle here.....

Originally Posted by oracle80

Either that or the though that another grueling race in which they chase a lightning fast Kip Deville with Prado onboard rather than Hamilton has them taking another path. Smart move on their part if its true. I'd want no part of chasing Kip again with Prado onboard instead of the kid who opened up 17 lengths. YOu still really arent laboring under the delusion that if the kid only opened him up say by, a completely moronic 10 lengths as opposed to an incredibly moronic 17 lengths, that he was really going to beat Kip are you? I guess a lack of understanding of pace and energy expended would be expected by a guy not following the game real long.
Trust me, they want no part of Kip in that spot.

I still can't help but think that this is one of those free-running horses that if you tried to kindly rate him that he would go very rank on you....I don't know, man...I've seen three of his races prior to Dutrow getting him and I'm just not sure if he will rate and still be effective...he is a free-running horses that wants it his own way....the jock usually is best served to just be a passenger - literrally and let the horse do his thing on these types...these kind of horses are rare but look at his past form...he likes to run like this....

I think any crafty attempt at Prado or anyone trying to strangle him down will have an adverse effect on his performance....just my opinion.....I say Dutrow sends him again and says "come and catch me if you can" - especially if Showing Up isn't in the field...I really do....And I also think that at least one rider will go afte him down the backstretch....these guys can't be dumb enough not to the second time around...fool me once, shame on you...fool me twice, shame on me - the classic old cliche'

Originally Posted by oracle80

Turf Invitational is at belmont Ruler. And I think the grass decision is quite wise. Horses stay sounder on the grass and race longer. Sounds like a very good plan to me. Go for the grade one agaisnt his own generation at Arlington, then use the toughest prep for the BC(Turf Inv).

On top of the soundness issue from raing on grass over dirt, the 3YO dirt division is BRUTAL right now in my opinion, and I really believe he can make more money and have more success easier by staying on the grass right now - unless a bunch of Euros come over and rain on his parade but that is probably unlikely becaues they have never traveled their 3YOs for the Secretariat....The local prep for the Secretariat last Saturday was AWFUL in my opinion with Kingship holding off the German.....Showing Up obviously has nothing to worry about coming out of that race...

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

On top of the soundness issue from raing on grass over dirt, the 3YO dirt division is BRUTAL right now in my opinion, and I really believe he can make more money and have more success easier by staying on the grass right now - unless a bunch of Euros come over and rain on his parade but that is probably unlikely becaues they have never traveled their 3YOs for the Secretariat....The local prep for the Secretariat last Saturday was AWFUL in my opinion with Kingship holding off the German.....Showing Up obviously has nothing to worry about coming out of that race...

The only 3yr old that could even be competitive with him is Brilliant and I am not even sure about him. You would think Tagg would squeeze as many races against 3yr old horses in as possible, but if they are looking at a big 4yr old year with him then I can see why Tagg is spacing his races. We don't know the horse either and Tagg does. I heard he came out of the last race fine but who knows, maybe the last race took a lot out of him.

Brilliant would give him a struggle going a mile IMO, especially over the CD lawn...not saying hye is better but it would be a good race...Showing Up beats him at longer distances though....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Additionally, he is a Strategic Mission out of T.V. Commercial mare - so I assume that there strategy is to get as many Gr. Is under his belt as they possible can to enhance his stud value, which is a value that will alwasy have a low ceiling IMO with that pedigree.....He could do as much on the track as Skip Away and Silver Charm and still be regarded as subpar bloodstock in the breeding shed just like those two nice horses.....That is why I would chase the easier purse money with him right now while it presents itself and then tackle the big boys down the road - but I can defunately see their angle here.....

This I completely agree with. Without a Grade 1 on the dirt, and even then, it doesn't seem he will ever have significant stud value. Luckily, for the owners, this doesn't really matter.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Brilliant would give him a struggle going a mile IMO, especially over the CD lawn...not saying hye is better but it would be a good race...Showing Up beats him at longer distances though....

I doubt Showing Up ever runs a race less than 9F ever again.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by boldruler

I doubt Showing Up ever runs a race less than 9F ever again.

OK, if you allow me that he must race in 2007, I can make a SERIOUS bet on the other side of this.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This I completely agree with. Without a Grade 1 on the dirt, and even then, it doesn't seem he will ever have significant stud value. Luckily, for the owners, this doesn't really matter.

Probably not significant, but the people I have spoken with said his ability to run on the dirt and turf make him an interesting horse. Throw in a few track records and a few grade/group 1's and they will have no problem filling his book, just not at a huge price.

I get the feeling he will be around for a few years though because the money they could make off him at stud is nothing to them, especially if Barbaro turns out ok. Barbaro is a cash register in the breeding shed. Showing Up could even be around at 5 if he stays on the grass. I hope so because the US needs a turf horse that we can ship over to Europe and win a big race.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I doubt Showing Up ever runs a race less than 9F ever again.

Well, the fat of the matter is that if they are shooting for the BC they have two options - The Mile or the 1 1/2-mile Turf - and the Mile typically comes up softer from the Euros standpoint....I know Brillaint is being pointed towards the BC Mile because he loves CD lawn, but I do NOT think he is good enough to win a world-class race like that unless nobody else shows up or he REALLY improves beyond what he is now....As for Showing Up, this horse showed immense speed racing around one turn at GP so I don't think a Mile is such a bad option for him....as a matter of fact, I betcha their leaning towarsd the BC Mile right now until he proves he can get 1 1/2-miles and do so effectively...just guessing based on my observations...

I don't really like Showing Up either in that spot because I alwasy prefer seeing what Euros show up first before looking at the American horses - but the fact is that the best Euro milers haven't shown up in the past two years....Showing Up could be this year's wise-guy Mile horse just like Peace Rules and Artie Schiller were two and three years ago - but I don't think he can beat the good Euros if they come...not many Americans can though...they are just better on grass and could win just about every BC grass race every year if they brought their best horses over...

Originally Posted by boldruler

Probably not significant, but the people I have spoken with said his ability to run on the dirt and turf make him an interesting horse. Throw in a few track records and a few grade/group 1's and they will have no problem filling his book, just not at a huge price.

I get the feeling he will be around for a few years though because the money they could make off him at stud is nothing to them, especially if Barbaro turns out ok. Barbaro is a cash register in the breeding shed. Showing Up could even be around at 5 if he stays on the grass. I hope so because the US needs a turf horse that we can ship over to Europe and win a big race.

He'll have to race fotr a few years if healthy because his stud value has such a short ceiling....hes really more valuable on the track.........

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Well, the fat of the matter is that if they are shooting for the BC they have two options - The Mile or the 1 1/2-mile Turf - and the Mile typically comes up softer from the Euros standpoint....I know Brillaint is being pointed towards the BC Mile because he loves CD lawn, but I do NOT think he is good enough to win a world-class race like that unless nobody else shows up or he REALLY improves beyond what he is now....As for Showing Up, this horse showed immense speed racing around one turn at GP so I don't think a Mile is such a bad option for him....as a matter of fact, I betcha their leaning towarsd the BC Mile right now until he proves he can get 1 1/2-miles and do so effectively...just guessing based on my observations...

I don't really like Showing Up either in that spot because I alwasy prefer seeing what Euros show up first before looking at the American horses - but the fact is that the best Euro milers haven't shown up in the past two years....Showing Up could be this year's wise-guy Mile horse just like Peace Rules and Artie Schiller were two and three years ago - but I don't think he can beat the good Euros if they come...not many Americans can though...they are just better on grass and could win just about every BC grass race every year if they brought their best horses over...

I thought the same thing. I just said he has a track record at one mile and he loves the turf, so I just figured BC Mile. However, the guy I talk to about this horse said ever since Showing Up came out of the Derby he has a foundation under him and he wants to run all day. He keeps throwing the word freak around and he is beginning to believe Showing Up might be as good as his beloved Barbaro was on the turf. I personally have a soft spot for Sweetnorthernsaint so keeping Showing Up on the turf sounds good to me.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

He'll have to race fotr a few years if healthy because his stud value has such a short ceiling....hes really more valuable on the track.........

He probably is. I plan on getting a mare to breed with him, but don't plan on paying his fee.

[blackthroatedwind]

I would say if one evaluates horses based on their own opinions that those opinions are far more valuable than opinions from people close to horses.

Showing Up is a " freak "? That is like people who call Smarty Jones " great ". Let's see a few more races from him. He's a good horse but how good is still very much open to debate.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, if you allow me that he must race in 2007, I can make a SERIOUS bet on the other side of this.

He will definitely race next year, unless he got hurt. The BC Mile is still an option I guess but I made the stupid comment that he should be a turf miler because he ran well at one mile on the dirt and my friend laughed at me and said that means nothing.