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#1
11-11-2009, 08:54 AM
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11/11: Aqueduct (P4); Churchill (C/O)
Hope everyone enjoyed Cup and did well. As feared, Saturday was much more difficult to negotiate than Friday, though using Furthest Land in P3's helped keep Day Two give backs to a minimum. Overall, it was a profitable weekend, and I hope the ATR guest list leading up to Cup and the selection suggestions helped you score. Back to the day-to-day prospecting with Churchill, Aqueduct abnd later this week Hollywood as the targets. Good quality action at the Big A and a $20,000 carryover at 4th and Central today in fact...
AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Siren's Call 7-2 2nd Next Best: #3 Pleasant Sister 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #9 Autumnlady 3-1 WON Best Value: #7 First and Foremost 12-1 10th 7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Crazy Catlady 7-2 6th Best Value: #6 Paraiba 12-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Gran Appeal 3-1 8th Exotics Use: #1e McLaughlin entry 4-1 7th/9th 8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD) Most Likely: #7 Sky's the Limit 8-5 6th Best Value: #6 Rodman 5-1 WON Next Best: #1 Well Positioned 3-1 2nd 9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super) Will protect against ML choice #10 Bishop of Nola (5-2) in multis, but he's a bad favorite.. Watch to see if either of the deep AE's draw in. Either are preferable to Bishop of Nola.. Most Likely: #7 Thunder Chief 7-2 2nd Best Value: #5 Joba 8-1 5th Next Best: #3 Kuggerand 4-1 WON Super Add: #6 Tom Kitten 8-1 3rd $1 Exacta (3-7) Paid $26.25 $1 Trifecta (3-7-6) Paid $112.50 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 3-4-9 7: 1-3-4-6-8 8: 7 9: 3-5-6-7-10 3x5x1x5 = $75 CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #10 Yikes 3-1 WON Best Value: #12 Pennyroyal 6-1 11th Next Best: #4 Chubby 4-1 5th Super Add: #8 Baby My Darlin' 5-1 7th 6th: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Afleet Maggi 5-2 2nd Best Value: #5 Reversed On Appeal 10-1 4th Next Best: #7 Silent Candy 8-1 10th Super Add: #10 Oscar de La Thorn 10-1 3rd 7th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Home Field 5-1 5th Best Value: #10 Stamp 6-1 4th Next Best: #4 Myroslaw 6-1 3rd Super Add: #5 Gresham 8-1 2nd 8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Pick and Pray 2-1 WON Best Value: #4 Darlin' Diane 10-1 8th Next Best: #2 Honor Hymn 3-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Edacious Reality 8-1 4th 9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #10 Tight Precision 4-1 WON Next Best: #3 Banker's Choice 7-2 10th Best Value: #5 True Birkin 6-1 6th Super Add: #4 Phola 5-1 2nd 10th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5) Best Value: #7 Foolish Promise 10-1 3rd Most Likely: #3 Tricky Chief 5-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Dr. Rythym 6-1 WON Super Add: #13 (AE) SCR High 5 Play: #5 Sun Button 6-1 11th $1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $65.90 $1 Trifecta (9-3-7) Paid $331.00 $1 Pick 3 (9-10-9) 3 Correct Paid $103.20 <$200 P6 Play: 5: 10-12 6: 2-5-7 7: 4-5-8-10 8: 4-9 9: 10 10: 3-7 2x3x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 4-5-8-10 8: 2-3-4-6-9-10 9: 10 10: 3-7-9 4x6x1x3 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-12-2009 at 06:13 AM. 
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#3
11-11-2009, 09:32 AM
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Steve, Race 7 at Aqueduct you leave the 4 and 9 right out of the number? Is there any reassons your against these 2? Im asking because Im playing the 7-9 pick 3 and those 2 horses are my 2 A's and actually the only 2 that Im going to use.
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#4
11-11-2009, 09:43 AM
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Quote:
It's a terrific race...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
11-11-2009, 09:50 AM
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If you're using Dawn Chorus you're assuming Ramon individually is going to move her up a great deal. Tactically she's in no man's land with an outside draw stretching out. She's a terrible play at anything less than 10-1 IMO considering the expected race flow.
NT
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#6
11-11-2009, 09:54 AM
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Quote:
Im guessing she will be around 10-1... Part of the reasson Im using her, value and possible upside still. I think Mott is going to be tough in the 8th, and that makes everything chalky.
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#7
11-11-2009, 10:22 AM
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AQU SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp 6TH 1 (poe) Rosary Beads Early 2 (poe) Kim Karakorum Early 8 Cottage Industry Early 10 Mia's Blaze Early 7TH 2B Imandra Early 10 Selene's Delight Early 11 Granted Tiger Early 8TH 1A El Real Madrid Early 9TH 1 Holy Ego Early 1A Fortunate Run Early 12 D'argento Early 13 Thundering Roar Early 14 Eire's Run Early 15 Neversaywhen Early
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#8
11-11-2009, 10:25 AM
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CD SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...rogram-changes RACE 5 - PICK SIX BEGINS - SIX-DAY CARRYOVER $21,099 SCRATCH AE #13 Margaret Pride SCRATCH AE #14 Neveah's Song SCRATCH AE #15 Rare Nugget SCRATCH AE #16 Fearful Woman LATE WORKOUT #5 Studio One - Nov. 5, Highpointe Training Center, 3F in :37, breezing RACE 6 SCRATCH AE #11 Egyptian Charmer SCRATCH AE #12 Fallseed SCRATCH AE #13 Valsa SCRATCH AE #14 Offlee Funny SCRATCH AE #15 Quick Breeze (entered for main track only) JOCKEY CHANGE #9 Ledge's Monarchos will be ridden by Sal Gonzales, Jr. RACE 7 - LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER) SCRATCH #7 Luv Gov RACE 8 NO CHANGES RACE 9 SCRATCH AE #1A Magical Theater (#1 Abuela will run) SCRATCH AE #11 Kentucky Peaches SCRATCH AE #12 Midnight Crush SCRATCH AE #13 War Echo (entered for main track only) RACE 10 - SUPER HI-5 SCRATCH AE #13 Chaffee John SCRATCH AE #14 Time to Play SCRATCH AE #15 Restless City SCRATCH AE #16 Variant
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
11-11-2009, 11:16 AM
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Ok here is more of a real case for Dawn Chorus. Pull up the chart from her last race, very slow pace... The horses who were 2,3,1 early ran 1,2,3 around the track. Dawn was second to last early and ran a bit at the end. 2 back at Saratoga I bet her and she had a nightmare trip with NO RUNNING ROOM AT ALL. You really need to watch the replay to realize how shut off she was. Clearly shes going to have to pull a trip under Ramon and like the stretchout, but I beleive its possible.
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#10
11-11-2009, 11:43 AM
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Quote:
NT
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Linear Mode
