Can you really make money in this game ?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Well I've worked at a number of tracks over the past 10 years, and was a horseplayer long before that. I've worked at tracks and OTB's in Virginia, Illinois, Minnesota, West Virginia, Idaho, California and Texas.

The common theme all these tracks and OTB's have are people showing up before noon, starting to drink, and drinking most of the day. They also play darn near every race.

The larger, 'professional' type players do not bet every pool, every race, every track so their money is not everywhere. The sober, astute, and restrained horseplayer is a rarity. You are lucky to know even a few of them.

On the other hand, you can find the drunken addicted gambler at nearly every track and OTB in good sized numbers.

G-Hog,

While I agree that the typical otb bunch is a fairly sodden crew, I don't believe they account for very much of the handle on an overall basis. I also believe there is only fairly modest large, "educated" wagering done on-track. When I look at a weekday card at Gulf, Aqueduct, etc,... and see there are 3000 people on track accounting for $2 million in handle, I assume there are probably 200-300 people wagering over $200/race and probably 10 times that many wagering less than $10 per race on the on-track races.

Personally, I believe the biggest wagerers are the internet players as well as some Vegas-based handicappers. Just my opinion.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Six secrets..

1. Know the trainers
2. Know the owners
3. Know the jockeys
4. Know the grooms
5. Know the exercise riders
6. Pick your spots

That's it. I'd love to say otherwise, but unless you've got inside information at the track, you're fighting an unbelievably steep uphill battle.

I'm not saying that you still can't win by just handicapping (or playing numbers like Hooves), but it's ridiculous how many factors are unknowable by reading the race on paper.

my dart board method has served me well ..lmao,,, and the 2/5 with 2/5 double..lol

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I think you can come out ahead. You have to beat the take-out rate (~20%), and be 'better' than about 60% the handicappers out there.

Playing several tracks and betting every race at those tracks is tough. Being selective is important. Make your plays when you feel confident.

Also, don't drink. Consistently beating 60% of the handicappers sounds like a minor challenge, but many of those people are showing up at the track/OTB early in the afternoon, and they start drinking early. This is a near daily event for many of these people, and they generally are addicted to gambling and playing impaired. They are not playing with 'smart' money.

Of course, it is tough to be selective if you only go out to play the horses occasionally. I'm at the track 5-6 days a week, and I play maybe 4-8 races a week - usually at a track I'm familiar with the jockeys, trainers, and track biases.

I work at a track though, so all the races sort of blend together and being selective is fairly easy in that scenario.

Oops.

[SundayStar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Six secrets..

1. Know the trainers
2. Know the owners
3. Know the jockeys
4. Know the grooms
5. Know the exercise riders
6. Pick your spots

That's it. I'd love to say otherwise, but unless you've got inside information at the track, you're fighting an unbelievably steep uphill battle.

I'm not saying that you still can't win by just handicapping (or playing numbers like Hooves), but it's ridiculous how many factors are unknowable by reading the race on paper.

so true. which makes being a consistent winner almost impossible. mullins took a lot fo grief for his comments but for the most part he spoketh the truth......

[blackthroatedwind]

I would say the opposite.....


It's amazing how much information IS in the paper if only one is willing ( and able ) to dig deep enough and do the required work. The game is a LOT more logical than most people realize.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Just remember its entertainment and all the work you do, can be lost on a head bob! If you dont bet the farm, have a fun time & come home with a few bucks, how bad can it be ? When in doubt bet the grey horse..

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

I really dont think that you can. Its such a hard game to win money on, i go for a day at stimucast and handicap 3-4 tracks all day catch a couple big hits and at the end of the day still finish down. Its so hard to win over the long run betting horses...i feel the only way i win is if i spot play 1 maybe to races a day, bet them and thats it. I find it so hard to go to otb with my buddies and bet for a whole day and finish up.

Here are 5 more pieces of advice:

1. Keep accurate records of your results.
2. Before betting on a horse, estimate it's chance of winning the race and compare your estimate to the late tote odds. The best way to do that, IMO, is to make a line for all the horses in the race. (and, in case it's not obvious, DON'T bet if the tote odds don't justify it.)
3. Bet very small until you have good evidence that you can win in the long run.
4. Bet less on longshots than you do on favs.
5. Keep accurate records of your results.

Yeah, I repeated one of them. If you want to win, it's very important to know exactly how you are doing overall. It's not enough to say "I win some days and lose some days, but I end up ahead. I think."

--Dunbar

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Six secrets..

1. Know the trainers

I'd love to hear others' thoughts on this, but the trainer angle, at least for me, has been my worst enemy and my best friend.

I say worst because often times I'll add an extra horse into my bet because "it's the Pletcher" even though I don't really like the horse and I'm probably killing myself in the long run on profit vs. money bet. I'm probably better off just taking a stand against that entry? At the same time, I've included horses (especially in Claimers) because of the trainer involved and it was the right thing to do. Which makes things very confusing, besides the fact that for the beginner capper I think claimers are much harder to figure out.

Frankel - I never bet his first time starters from Europe in Stakes races. It seems they either run off the board or if they do win, they were very overbet.

Class hikes or drops is something I'm really bad at recognizing a positive move...which is where I really rely on the trainer information.

My thoughts on Jazil being entered on Thursday is he is a bet against. McLaughlin can bring a horse off from the layoff better than anyone...me thinks McLaughlin thinks Jazil needs another race (hooray for me )

[Kasept]

This thread is well on its' way to making it to the 'Charlie Hatton'... Endlessly entertaining and interesting...

I'll quickly add that I believe it's very possible to make a consistant profit at the track, but it does not involve any one specific set of requirements or procedures.

Each individual player must craft his or her own nuanced approach which utilizes their specific strengths and avoids making the same mistakes too often. Understanding your strengths and weaknesses as a player; capitalizing on those strengths and learning how and where the weaknesses resulted in beats; application of bankroll; and confidence in your own opinion and approach are more important to long term success than any one set of handicapping maxims...

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This thread is well on its' way to making it to the 'Charlie Hatton'... Endlessly entertaining and interesting...

I'll quickly add that I believe it's very possible to make a consistant profit at the track, but it does not involve any one specific set of requirements or procedures.

Each individual player must craft his or her own nuanced approach which utilizes their specific strengths and avoids making the same mistakes too often. Understanding your strengths and weaknesses as a player; capitalizing on those strengths and learning how and where the weaknesses resulted in beats; application of bankroll; and confidence in your own opinion and approach are more important to long term success than any one set of handicapping maxims...

Excellent points, Steve. I've learned that if I want to pick a winner, I must never ever play that horse. Guaranteed that if I DON'T put a dime on the horse, that horse will cross the finish line first.

[CapperZeke]

placed $100 on a horse as i was going to the airport it came in paying $[b]16 & had $1,600 when i came back which was good cause i was broke

I want to bet where you bet if your getting that kind of return.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by CapperZeke

I want to bet where you bet if your getting that kind of return.

That's confidential information.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Last Thursday,I cashed the late p4 at ANITA.There is a thread with it.The 4 race win parlay was only a $150/1 payoff(so not Rocket Science,)but the p4 paid about $370/1.I had close calls Friday,Saturday,and Sunday(thank you T. Baze for 2 of those.)Anyways,still chewing on the fat from Thursday,and the reason I mention it,is because I need to find other pick 4 payoffs that are 2.46 x the 4 race win parlay. Does anybody keep statistics on pick 4 payoffs? To me,that is at the heart of answering the original posters question.You want to avoid the tracks where the p4 payouts often pay below the 4 race win parlays.That is like Child Molestation(neither should ever happen.)I've seen that happen too much at Turfway,and the Zia Park/Sunland circuit.I know that Laurel and the Meadowlands have the least take-out,but there again, if you can't cap a certain circuit,then it makes no difference(whiffing is whiffing.)Anyways,my point is that you need to take advantage of the multi-race wagers,but you need to do it at a circuit that

1)you can cap

2)you can rely on fair multi-race wager payoffs(can't play tracks where p4 payoffs are routinely paying below the 4 race win parlay.)

Originally Posted by CapperZeke

I want to bet where you bet if your getting that kind of return.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About a 48 hour flight from you Australia :-) was on my way to my homeland
New Zealand to get married.
What i like about my system is your wife actually lets you go to the pub for a bet because she gets something out of it ;-)

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'd love to hear others' thoughts on this, but the trainer angle, at least for me, has been my worst enemy and my best friend.

I say worst because often times I'll add an extra horse into my bet because "it's the Pletcher" even though I don't really like the horse and I'm probably killing myself in the long run on profit vs. money bet. I'm probably better off just taking a stand against that entry? At the same time, I've included horses (especially in Claimers) because of the trainer involved and it was the right thing to do. Which makes things very confusing, besides the fact that for the beginner capper I think claimers are much harder to figure out.

Frankel - I never bet his first time starters from Europe in Stakes races. It seems they either run off the board or if they do win, they were very overbet.

Class hikes or drops is something I'm really bad at recognizing a positive move...which is where I really rely on the trainer information.

My thoughts on Jazil being entered on Thursday is he is a bet against. McLaughlin can bring a horse off from the layoff better than anyone...me thinks McLaughlin thinks Jazil needs another race (hooray for me )

I agree with you, i sometimes dont punt on a horse because i dont like the trainer which is stupid because it's not the horses fault, also i never bet on my own horses because as a trainer i feel you need a impartial view of how your horse ran & money seems to cloud ones thinking.

[2MinsToPost]

At my home track, I would estimate that at least 50% of the people in attendance who are gambling are playing the tote board with no form. In the big picture, what % do these type bettors account for in the pools?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would say the opposite.....


It's amazing how much information IS in the paper if only one is willing ( and able ) to dig deep enough and do the required work. The game is a LOT more logical than most people realize.

Another dart-thrower..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Another dart-thrower..

That's me.

I just wish I was more connected to that oh-so-reliable backstretch chatter.

Oh well.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's me.

I just wish I was more connected to that oh-so-reliable backstretch chatter.

Oh well.

More STEAM!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's me.

I just wish I was more connected to that oh-so-reliable backstretch chatter.

Oh well.

Whatever dude. I say it's easier when you know rather than guess, but that's just me.