Tiago's Beyers???

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

As much as it pains me to point it out -- Cowtown Cat came home in 37.3 at Hawthorne Saturday, too. He obviously was allowed to loaf through the early stages, but at least he came home well too. (EDIT: Just watched the race again, and Jara wasn't all over him either. Urging him along and took to him with the whip a bit, but wasn't all out aboard him in any sense late)

It seems like it never fails, the Illinois Derby winner either runs just fast enough or gets a big enough Beyer to have everyone talking about them. While Cowtown Cat isn't even his trainer's best, he still has to be talked about because he went about his business pretty well.

NT

If you project CQ final 1/16 in the LA derby, out to an 1/8, he too qualifies as an under 38 sec. 3/8.

I agree w/ much of Kasept's posts but one thing about projecting Tiago to run 24.2 the whole way around the track, that's being a bit over ambitious, isnt it more likely that Tiago runs his final 1/8 at CD in the same speed he ran his final 1/8 at SA? in 13 sec.

I dont see Tiago as some sort of closer like Ponder or Whirlaway or whatever. He's not gong to close in 24.2. More like 26 or maybe a little less.

What does that translate into a 2:03 derby? Okay, these are only projections and he may run better. Sounds to me like he can hit the board but a win not likely.

But kasept is onto something w/ those even fractions, those really are quite even, a horse that can run like that can have something left at the end for sure. What do you think he can run the final quarter in? Thats the big question.

[somerfrost]

Tiago sure appears to fit in this year's race...I prefer Dr Roman's Performance Figures to Beyers...he was awarded a -45 for the SA Derby, certainly that puts him in the mix. Nobiz Like Shobiz had a -55 for the Wood, best numbers of the season (at a distance) so far are Circular Quay's -65 on 3/10 and Street Sense's -60 on 3/17, AGS had a -60 earlier but fell to a -40 in the Wood.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

If Tiago ran anywhere outside of California, Kimmeastar would not be bashing him.

Nothing more, nothing less

I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.

Have to agree, the left coast will not run good at CD. SA is a set up track for that last effort. won't repeat.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Have to agree, the left coast will not run good at CD. SA is a set up track for that last effort. won't repeat.

Way too early to say things like I'm reading here...I for one have absolutely no idea who is gonna run well this year...and neither does anyone else! Once we have the field set with post positions, then you can say with a little confidence that this horse or that horse will run well but now...??? Tiago is an interesting horse...to say he won't move forward now is well...interesting! Every year at this time, folks post that they "know" this or that...hell, I don't even know which horses will be in the field...all this is pure speculation!

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

all this is pure speculation!

Of course it is, it started January

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.

What are you talking about? its not that everyone is abuzz over the horse. Steve merely said not to ignore him and that the possibility exists that he could win. That doesn't mean he was predicting a win. Predicting that he won't win is pretty lame and not very bold.

And what monsters are waiting to eat him alive? Who is your pick as of today.

If you ask me its too early to start ruling out a horse like Tiago as having no chance.

[TitanSooner]

in 2005.. everybody was quick to toss out the horses coming out of the SA Derby.. How did they finish in the KY Derby? how about 1st, 5th, 6th..

I am not saying that this horse is a world beater. I also don't see any others in this crop, save possibly Curlin, who I'm not sure how good is/can be.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.

I can see it's pointless to discuss this and you're simply not willing to learn anything or open to comprehending the topic at hand. But I'll try to address a couple of these saliant points..

Did nothing at 2.. Well, he's by Pleasant Tap who tends to get late developers and didn't make his first start at 2 until Opening Day at Santa Anita, so I'm not sure how much more he could have done.. But he did get a requisite 'start as a 2 year old' if you're looking for Derby voodoo. As a reminder, Charismatic did nothing at 2.. Grindstone had 2 starts as a 2 year old.. Fusaichi Pegasus made one runner up start at 2.. War Emblem won a maiden and ALW race at AP and FG.. Monarchos was 8th and 3rd in his 2 starts as a juvenile.. WHAT'S YOUR POINT?

Hasn't done anything outside California? Silver Charm and Giacomo had never been outside California before the Derby..

Your handicapping? I guess pedigree has no place in it either.. His dam has already produced a Derby winner and his sire was a champion; ran in 4 different Breeders' Cup races finishing 2nd in both the Sprint and Classic. And of course being by Pleasant Tap he should get better with added ground.

Horses 'attending the pace' in the Derby? Recent winners that were at least 8 lengths back after a half mile or 5 lengths back after three quarters in the Derby: Sea Hero; Grindstone; Real Quiet; FuPeg; Monarchos; Giacomo..

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

If Tiago ran anywhere outside of California, Kimmeastar would not be bashing him.

Nothing more, nothing less

you got it, this is the same poster who stated california horses cannot ship and win.....lost all credit as someone with valuable opinion after reading that.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

What are you talking about? its not that everyone is abuzz over the horse. Steve merely said not to ignore him and that the possibility exists that he could win. That doesn't mean he was predicting a win. Predicting that he won't win is pretty lame and not very bold.

And what monsters are waiting to eat him alive? Who is your pick as of today.

If you ask me its too early to start ruling out a horse like Tiago as having no chance.

If you read this thread from the beginning,you will see there are a ton of people abuzz about this horse.
I have a right to disagree with all of them and Steve if I want.And he,and you and whoever else,have a right to disagree with me.That is just fine.That is how a forum works.I never said Steve was predicting a win,and that was not the topic we were discussing.Don't know how you got that.As far as my derby horse,I do not have one and will not until the first saturday in May,when I have the DRF in front of me.But I do know that Tiago will not be him.
Monsters?Everything east of California,those monsters.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

you got it, this is the same poster who stated california horses cannot ship and win.....lost all credit as someone with valuable opinion after reading that.

Name one who ran last weekend and won outside of California.

[10 pnt move up]

Also here are the quarters and final 1/8th I came up with Tiago

25 24 23 3/5, 23 4/5, 12 4/5

what is wrong with that? This horse is bred to go farther, he is not really in play in the Derby as he will be overbet. While I respect Drugs opinion I think this horse has more talent then his brother.

If I hear the Santa Anita derby fell apart again I am going to puke. It was a fair race, the pace I have is 107 with a final of 100, hardly a fall apart (I had the derby as 130-100 that Giacomo won, now that is fall apart).

So objectively Tiago made a strong middle move into a fair pace to reach contention, then was able to grind out the win when Roxy got tired late. What is horrible with that for a horse in his fourth start? Sure he probably runs second had Roxy come home strong I would still view the outcome for what is, a well bred distance horse, late developing under strong connections who will run against a week field in a month.

Why is it everyone has to have an agenda when breaking down this colt, seems they are still frustrated over Giacomo if you ask me.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

If you read this thread from the beginning,you will see there are a ton of people abuzz about this horse.
I have a right to disagree with all of them and Steve if I want.And he,and you and whoever else,have a right to disagree with me.That is just fine.That is how a forum works.I never said Steve was predicting a win,and that was not the topic we were discussing.Don't know how you got that.As far as my derby horse,I do not have one and will not until the first saturday in May,when I have the DRF in front of me.But I do know that Tiago will not be him.
Monsters?Everything east of California,those monsters.

LMFAO!!! Talk about contradicting yourself.

[MisterB]

Does Mike Smith provide any negatives?? The Moss's think this horse is better than G-Man

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

Name one who ran last weekend and won outside of California.

last weekend, you mean one weekend out of 52, out of say 520 weeks the past decade.

give me a break, you lose credibility with statements such as this, an others you throw around. If you say something like this others might not call you out but I will.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Does Mike Smith provide any negatives??

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Does Mike Smith provide any negatives?? The Moss's think this horse is better than G-Man

what do you mean negatives? he sure rode the horse much better last out then victor did.

from what I understand the Moss' want Mike to ride all their horses from here on out and was one of the reasons he is going back to socal. (among others, like riding like **** in ny).

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by MisterB

The Moss's think this horse is better than G-Man

think or hope?