Tiago's Beyers???

[eajinabi]

Can someone please tell me Tiago's Beyers by winning the SA derby??

[ultracapper]

100

[letswastemoney]

Hey you know Tiago can get the distance of the KY Derby since his brother Giacomo did it.

All the horses could be gasping for air in the stretch drive, while Tiago can just mow them down

[The Indomitable DrugS]

While he seems to have nicely inherited that same grinding style of Giacomo's.....I think people will be making a big mistake if they put too much emphsis on whoelse his dam dropped.

Giacomo actually ran several very good races leading into his Santa Anita Derby effort---where he got no pace to work with. Giacomo had only been passed by one single horse in his career going into the Derby, and he had an abysmal trip in that race, his 3rd place effort in the Sham.

Tiago, may have improved markedly (off his lousy form) with the removal of blinkers---but, he's going to have a lot more to run down in the Kentucky Derby than some Ohio-bred sprinter/miler type like King of the Roxy.

What's interesting about Giacomo and Tiago's dam---was that she (Set Them Free) was a confirmed sprinter. I believe she was 2nd in career debut to Champion Eliza...before winning a couple stakes at age two. She won five races in her career, four of them stake races, her average winning distance was just 5.8 furlongs.

[Kasept]

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

[MisterB]

So beyers are a piece of poop like I have always said.

[docicu3]

Mr B. with the E. Coli abscess reference so early in the morn......


Are you more of a sheets guy or do you prefer the commented PP's you spoke of previously. Beyers are screening tools in my book nothing more... they get you past the first filter of who you don't like.

I am very intriqued by this horse though after watching the replays on all races back to back. Derby moneymaker ITM possible here if the last race didn't leave him empty for months.

Where are you focusing your efforts today Mr B

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Mr B. with the E. Coli abscess reference so early in the morn......


Are you more of a sheets guy or do you prefer the commented PP's you spoke of previously. Beyers are screening tools in my book nothing more... they get you past the first filter of who you don't like.

I am very intriqued by this horse though after watching the replays on all races back to back. Derby moneymaker ITM possible here if the last race didn't leave him empty for months.

Where are you focusing your efforts today Mr B

I am not a beyer guy, that's for sure. If anything, when someone tells me what a great beyer a horse had, or this horse had the best beyer, I toss it right away. I guess I can say I use beyers to predict failures, or what the new younger crowd calls, "THE BOUNCE". As you know, just recently, we had a major beyer adjustment on a Derby contender, it didn't matter, he ran like crap. Andy has made millions on this so called theory, but I can't remember when he has picked a derby winner, easy as it should be, with all the great beyer input, yet, a failed mission.
History is just that, History, and to play from that history, without understanding to new requirement, is down right wrong in determining today's outcome. As the day progresses at the track, so does the tracks environment, so to look back at history, with a completely different gang to contend with, what good is that history lesson? I say absolutely nothing at all.

With only 22 days left at the Big A, I am going to look more at some routes until closing day, and be prepared to toss half the field with horses that have been on the upside all winter, and ready to go to the shelf. Fresh horse flesh, 2nd of the shelf is a good place to start looking for winners. Dirt to turf 1ster's looking for a fast pace to collapse, and Lone speed in a sprint.

I will be at Belmont opening day, hoping for a better card than last year.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

im very happy we agree on something

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Tiago, may have improved markedly (off his lousy form) with the removal of blinkers---but, he's going to have a lot more to run down in the Kentucky Derby than some Ohio-bred sprinter/miler type like King of the Roxy.

.

I'm not really in love with this horse either, but I think the two he ran by could be decent horses especially with Pletcher's guidance and in the right spot. No idea what Sam P was doing up so close to the pace. Blinkers off next time?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

I tend to agree, I don't think you can ignore him. In any other year, yeah maybe. But I just do not see many performances this year where horses finish up strongly.

Also the SA Derby was run with an honest pace, not like the Sham.
He's got things working against him for sure, but not one I will be ignoring.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

I love Pleasant Tap too, it's great to see a sire with stamina and soundness. Premium Tap may end up being the "big horse" he needs to get more notariety.

Here's my issue with Tiago. He beat a miler (at best), a horse that's maybe 7th in his own barn, and a bunch of nobodies. Not to mention the horse that beat him easily in his last start got clobbered in a 2nd string prep at even money.

On top of that, I have an issue with the Beyer. There were 6 dirt races on Saturday:
MSW 3yo's at a mile 1:37.62
MSW 3U at 6.5F 1:17.34
G2 Potrero Grande at 6F 1:14.83
40k Optional claimer at 6F 1:08.87
40k Starter allowance at 6F 1:10.35

So by my calculations if the don't split the variant for 2 turns, a 100 Beyer in the SA Derby gives the Potrero Grande about a 121-122. Smokey is one fast beast but I'm not sure I'm buying that (and they actually gave him a 115 I think). The allowance would be in the 115 range, which also seems awfully high. I think the number should be more like a 94, not splitting the variant.

The one thing I can say positive is the consistent fractions analysis is very positive in determining a Derby winner and I'm sure he'll stay the 10F.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

I MUST disagree,Steve.This horse,Tiago ,had absolutely no part of these fractions at all.At the quarter,he was ninth out of ten horses,the half,still ninth,Three quarters,he moved to seventh,the stretch,he moved to fifth,obviously because the other horses were tiring.If you want to use these fractions,the horses who ran best were the ones who SET,or were a part of these fractions.That would be Liquidity,Sam P,King of the Roxy,and Black Seventeen.Tiago was nowhere to be found,and got lucky to inherit this win.It is completely foolish to think this horse has any shot whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby,and those of you who wager on this fluke win do so at your own risk!!!!

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I MUST disagree,Steve.This horse,Tiago ,had absolutely no part of these fractions at all.At the quarter,he was ninth out of ten horses,the half,still ninth,Three quarters,he moved to seventh,the stretch,he moved to fifth,obviously because the other horses were tiring.If you want to use these fractions,the horses who ran best were the ones who SET,or were a part of these fractions.That would be Liquidity,Sam P,King of the Roxy,and Black Seventeen.Tiago was nowhere to be found,and got lucky to inherit this win.It is completely foolish to think this horse has any shot whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby,and those of you who wager on this fluke win do so at your own risk!!!!

Good post Kimmeastar!! I kind of agree with you here. He won it passing tired horses and eventualy wore down a horse who is a miler at best.

But I have to say that Giacomo did the same thing in the derby by passing tired horses too. He is also by pleasant tap so distance is not a problem. I did like the way he weaved through horses going in and out without problems. He is an exotics possible in the derby.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I MUST disagree,Steve.This horse,Tiago ,had absolutely no part of these fractions at all.At the quarter,he was ninth out of ten horses,the half,still ninth,Three quarters,he moved to seventh,the stretch,he moved to fifth,obviously because the other horses were tiring.If you want to use these fractions,the horses who ran best were the ones who SET,or were a part of these fractions.That would be Liquidity,Sam P,King of the Roxy,and Black Seventeen.Tiago was nowhere to be found,and got lucky to inherit this win.It is completely foolish to think this horse has any shot whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby,and those of you who wager on this fluke win do so at your own risk!!!!

Only problem I have is that none of the horses you mentioned actually won the race. How can you say with certainty that, if the fractions were slower, Tiago would not have been closer and just won anyway? Of those you mentioned, only KOTR was moving halfway decently through the last part of the race which was run in decent time. It is just as likely -- perhaps more likely -- these horses didn't want any part of 9F as it is that Tiago lucked into his win.

He was giving experience to all the name horses in the race and passed all of them. To me, it's no fluke. He's headed the right way and is in the mix at the bottom of the contenders 'list' at this point.

I will say that with comparable post positions, I prefer Tiago over NoBiz. I'm very hopeful that I find a matchup with these two head to head.

[Kasept]

Kimme.. (and I guess Eajinabi)..

I'm sorry, but you're completely 100% wrong and are missing the important point.. I'm not aware there was a requirement that a horse lead a race at every point of call to be allowed the win. Tiago's fractions aren't presented as important in context of the Santa Anita Derby. They're important in the context of how he projects to run in the Derby. You look for horses in the Derby that run even SUB :25.0 fractions and can close solidly (<:38.0 is generally a great place to start looking for contenders). Running 5 quarter miles of :24.2 equals 10f in 2:02.0 and that wins most Derbies. Tiago's splits and SUB :37.0 closing time Saturday protend very well for Derby success.

As for the horses who did the heavy lifting in the Santa Anita Derby, they don't hand out any particular special awards for that. Black Seventeen and Liquidity did not run "better races" than Tiago Saturday. Sam P. was too close to the pace and is a better horse than he demonstrated. King of the Roxy, who isn't running in the Derby based on his performance Saturday, is a courageous overachiever who ran a winning race at 8.5f. Unfortunately, they've been running the Santa Anita Derby at 9f for a number of years.

Is Tiago a Derby lock? No.. But in the hands of Shirreffs, off that effort Saturday and with four weeks to fine tune, if you don't think Tiago can win May 5th, you're mistaken.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Kimme.. (and I guess Eajinabi)..

I'm sorry, but you're completely 100% wrong and are missing the important point.. I'm not aware there was a requirement that a horse lead a race at every point of call to be allowed the win. Tiago's fractions aren't presented as important in context of the Santa Anita Derby. They're important in the context of how he projects to run in the Derby. You look for horses in the Derby that run even SUB :25.0 fractions and can close solidly (<:38.0 is generally a great place to start looking for contenders). Running 5 quarter miles of :24.2 equals 10f in 2:02.0 and that wins most Derbies. Tiago's splits and SUB :37.0 closing time Saturday protend very well for Derby success.

As for the horses who did the heavy lifting in the Santa Anita Derby, they don't hand out any particular special awards for that. Black Seventeen and Liquidity did not run "better races" than Tiago Saturday. Sam P. was too close to the pace and is a better horse than he demonstrated. King of the Roxy, who isn't running in the Derby based on his performance Saturday, is a courageous overachiever who ran a winning race at 8.5f. Unfortunately, they've been running the Santa Anita Derby at 9f for a number of years.

Is Tiago a Derby lock? No.. But in the hands of Shirreffs, off that effort Saturday and with four weeks to fine tune, if you don't think Tiago can win May 5th, you're mistaken.

Better said than me.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Kimme.. (and I guess Eajinabi)..

I'm sorry, but you're completely 100% wrong and are missing the important point.. I'm not aware there was a requirement that a horse lead a race at every point of call to be allowed the win. Tiago's fractions aren't presented as important in context of the Santa Anita Derby. They're important in the context of how he projects to run in the Derby. You look for horses in the Derby that run even SUB :25.0 fractions and can close solidly (<:38.0 is generally a great place to start looking for contenders). Running 5 quarter miles of :24.2 equals 10f in 2:02.0 and that wins most Derbies. Tiago's splits and SUB :37.0 closing time Saturday protend very well for Derby success.

As for the horses who did the heavy lifting in the Santa Anita Derby, they don't hand out any particular special awards for that. Black Seventeen and Liquidity did not run "better races" than Tiago Saturday. Sam P. was too close to the pace and is a better horse than he demonstrated. King of the Roxy, who isn't running in the Derby based on his performance Saturday, is a courageous overachiever who ran a winning race at 8.5f. Unfortunately, they've been running the Santa Anita Derby at 9f for a number of years.

Is Tiago a Derby lock? No.. But in the hands of Shirreffs, off that effort Saturday and with four weeks to fine tune, if you don't think Tiago can win May 5th, you're mistaken.

As much as it pains me to point it out -- Cowtown Cat came home in 37.3 at Hawthorne Saturday, too. He obviously was allowed to loaf through the early stages, but at least he came home well too. (EDIT: Just watched the race again, and Jara wasn't all over him either. Urging him along and took to him with the whip a bit, but wasn't all out aboard him in any sense late)

[TitanSooner]

If Tiago ran anywhere outside of California, Kimmeastar would not be bashing him.

Nothing more, nothing less

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

As much as it pains me to point it out -- Cowtown Cat came home in 37.3 at Hawthorne Saturday, too. He obviously was allowed to loaf through the early stages, but at least he came home well too.

War Emblem won out pf the IL Derby. SNS was highly regarded out of the race last year. So much of the Ky Derby is based on post, pace and trip that it's impossible to rule out any of the horses that ran well in their preps and especially those that finished up well at this point.