5/3: Churchill Downs (145th Oaks Day) ~ 1st/4th off the turf..

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 145TH OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: S/ALW, 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Off Sixes 7th
Most Likely: #8 Luck of the Draw 5th
Next Best: #7 Gigging WON ($9.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Coworker 6th


2nd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Weird group with some seasonal debuts mixed in with a few inconsistent types..

Best Value: #5 Upset Brewing 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Awestruck 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Alter Moon 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #6 Magical 6-1 6th


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

No less than 5 turnbacks signed on and notably, only one runner involved here that owns a win at seven-eighths (Golden Curl)..

Most Likely: #9 Golden Curl 3-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Irish Mischief 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Weabie 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Lady Kate SCR


4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #
Best Value: #
Next Best: #
Exotics Use: #
Super Add: #


5th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Mother Mother a bad favorite here with Queen of Beas, Break Even, Del Mar May & Lyrical Lady all more appealing. Bell's the One too. As a 2yo sprinting filly, Del Mar May was bested by only Bellafina and Brill. Likely 5th choice and well within striking distance of these..

Best Value: #6 Del Mar May 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Break Even 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Queen of Beas 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Bell's the One 15-1 2nd


6th: Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Jackpot Single 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Newspaperofrecord 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Concrete Rose 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #2 Cambier Parc 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Winter Sunset 10-1 3rd


7th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 McKinzie 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #5 Bourbon Resolution 15-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Tom's d'Etat 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Seeking the Soul 5-2 3rd


8th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

2-day $2 P6 starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Secret Spice 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Blue Prize 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Divine Miss Grey 7-2 8th
Super Add: #1 She's a Julie 7-2 WON ($12.00)


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Knights Key 10-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Solid Wager 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #15 Soul Streitz 2-1 12th
Super Add: #12 Fuel the Bern 20-1 5th


10th: T/S Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

World of Trouble essentially gets same softer turf condition that saw he and Stormy Liberal freak in Breeder's Cup..

Most Likely: #6 World of Trouble 1-1 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #5 Chaos Theory 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Bound for Nowhere SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Angaston 15-1 5th


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Champagne Anyone 6-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Lady Apple 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Bellafina 2-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Chocolate Kisses 20-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #1 Out for a Spin 15-1 11th


P5 Grid:

7: 1 (A), - (B), 2-5-8 (C)
8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
9: 5-7-12 (A), 1-2-8 (B), - (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-4-10 (A), 1-12 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
9: 5-7-12 (A), 2-8-15 (B), - (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-4-10 (A), 1-12 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 3-10 (A), 1-2-4 (B), 7-8-12 (C)
SAT 11: 12 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-8 (C)
SAT 12: 5-8-16 (A), 7-14 (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x5 = $25
All A's: 2x1x3 = $6


Oaks/Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 3-10 (A), 1-2-4 (B), 7-8-12 (C)
SAT 12: 5-8-16 (A), 7-14 (B), 1-6-17-20 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5 = $25
All A's: 2x3 = $6


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Goodbye Earl 15-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Free Cover 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 High Regard 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #10 Cloud Charmer 12-1 5th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Brutally tough nightcap with promising pedigreed firsters and a hatfull of OK players with experience..

Most Likely: #8 Vomba 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Club Car 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Indomitable Spirit 10-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Chocolate Swirl 20-1 6th


P5 Grid:

9: 5-7 (A), 12-15 (B), 2-8 (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2-3-4-10 (A), - (B), 7-8-12 (C)
12: 5-11 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
13: 8-12 (A), - (B), 2-3-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x1x5x2x2 = 40 x .50 = $20


P4 Grid:

10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2-3-4-10 (A), - (B), 7-8-12 (C)
12: 5-11 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
13: 8-9-12 (A), 2-3-4 (B), 6-11-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x5x2x3 = 30 x .50 = $15


Good luck!
Steve