11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Rinterval should and will be a longshot in the F/M Sprint. The question to me boiled down to whether Switch is a good bet at what will be her closing odds (I'm guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-1).

I would take 12-1 all day on her.

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Kasept

FILLY & MARE SPRINT (5:30p)

1. My Jen (E. Kenneally/J. Velazquez) 15-1
2. Sara Louise (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 15-1
3. Secret Gypsy (R. Werner/R. Albarado) 12-1
4. Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 7-2
5. Evening Jewel (J. Cassidy/V. Espinoza)
6. Moontune Missy (E. Harty/A. Garcia) 30-1
7. Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 15-1
8. Sweet August Moon (B. Koriner/M. Smith) 30-1
9. Switch (J. Sadler/J. Rosario) 20-1
10. Rinterval (E. Reed/R. Bejarano) 20-1
11. Jessica Is Back (M. Wolfson/J. Castellano) 12-1
12. Dubai Majesty (W. Calhoun/J. Theriot) 6-1
13. Rightly So (A. Dutrow/C. Velasquez) 3-1*
14. Champagne D'oro (E. Guillot/M. Mena) 6-1
AE-15 Tidal Pool (W. Lukas) 50-1
AE-16. First Passage (M. Wolfson) 50-1

Some nice prices in here.

If you can live with the long layoff and believe that the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs was too far for her, Gabby's Golden Gal's last was a Grade 1 win (with Garcia on board and she beat Proviso) and she won a Grade 1 at a mile on the dirt in New York. You also have Baffert moving from synthetic to dirt and she should like the distance. Also lightly raced this year (similar to Midnight Lute). And I think she can rate behind the speed. With Baffert though, I am wondering if she will stay at 15-1.

I also would love Evening Jewel at double digit odds in here.

[hockey2315]

Gabby's Golden Gal is no Midnight Lute. It's a shame that Champagne d'Oro got that bad post. . . she wasn't my top choice, but I was starting to warm to her a bit. Jessica Is Back is the value - her 7f performance in the Fleur de Lis might win this.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Mike

I'm seeing Evening Jewel at 15-1 in Filly and Mare Sprint

She never runs a bad race, has speed and is a turf to dirt turnback. I LOVE HER.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

She never runs a bad race, has speed and is a turf to dirt turnback. I LOVE HER.

The ol' infamous turf to dirt and cutback in distance combo move!!

That bangup second to Caracortado the last time she sprinted, ten months ago, that's bonus!!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

The ol' infamous turf to dirt and cutback in distance combo move!!

That bangup second to Caracortado the last time she sprinted, ten months ago, that's bonus!!

If she were adding blinkers, switching trainers, changing sexes and running backwards, he'd love her even more.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

If she were adding blinkers, switching trainers, changing sexes and running backwards, he'd love her even more.

Actually, if she switched trainers, she'd be running in the distaff.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I doubt a whole lot of them are planning their Friday around betting Switch and Rinterval.

I doubt they are old enough to bet.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

How do you explain Rinterval taking no money in her last start at Kee?

See ^^^

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Actually, if she switched trainers, she'd be running in the distaff.

I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

[herkhorse]

Steve, what do you think of Sara Louise?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

Really? From the 14-hole with no competitive race other than the Test, which was a decidedly weak renewal? You nailed her at 39-1 so I'm pretty surprised you'd be satisfied with 5-1 in this spot.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Steve, what do you think of Sara Louise?

Honestly Tom.. at this time I have no feel for her betability or liklihood for success. (Gus loves her in here I know.) I generally stay away from horses in situations like hers, but the 'real' BC Sprint has been one race where abbreviated campaigns or 'ouchy' types can be held together or pointed for one almighty effort. Desert Stormer and Lit de Justice won and Kela was 2nd having last started in August of their respective years for instance, and Fenstermaker hadn't started Precisionist since June in '85!

Second off the layoff here from what I think was a good group in the Gallant Bloom, can't be viewed as anything but positive. And also on the plus side is that she has the 2 races that are easily good enough to win this if she's right, and the 2 very favorable results on this strip as a 2yo with Romans. You're getting 15-1, and she is sure to have a pace to run into... Can't blame anyone for latching on to her.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really? From the 14-hole with no competitive race other than the Test, which was a decidedly weak renewal? You nailed her at 39-1 so I'm pretty surprised you'd be satisfied with 5-1 in this spot.

I think she's the horse to key around. Nothing wrong with the 14 going 7f, as she and Rightly So will clear. She has that elongated sprint specialist edge I like (Maryfield-style), and in this instance, I think Guillot has done a very good job preparing her. She didn't care for the going at KEE and still was only beat 2L, and has looked terrific getting ready for this.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I think she's the horse to key around. Nothing wrong with the 14 going 7f, as she and Rightly So will clear. She has that elongated sprint specialist edge I like (Maryfield-style), and in this instance, I think Guillot has done a very good job preparing her. She didn't care for the going at KEE and still was only beat 2L, and has looked terrific getting ready for this.

I think that the only way she and Rightly So clear is if they go very fast early. Secret Gypsy and Gabby's Golden Gal are gunning too IMO. If so, C'D is either four-wide or on a fast pace or both. More than anything though, I think this is the most wide open race on the card, which is why it's hard for me to take either of the two outside horses at 5-1 and under.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

Glad to hear you also like Champagne d'Oro. I really like that horse here.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

There are several reasons I think the the Distaff is the spot to go. First off, I think Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle to overcome than anything in the Distaff. Even beyond Champagne, the sprint is a better and tougher field.

Next, she really hasn't been trained up to a sprint to end her season, has she? She's been running very effectively at longer distances. Who in their right mind uses the QEII as a prep for a grade one sprint??!

As for her ability to sprint vs. going 9 on dirt, well, if you can use the reasoning that she might have improved since her December sprint, I don't think it's a stretch to say she might have improved since the Oaks in what was essentially early May.

Her race in the Oaks, she sat off the lead and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen again. Also, I don't think Blind Luck is going to win the Distaff anyways. I think she's a toss.

That all being said, if she were my horse, I'd probably have run her in the Cal Cup and ran QT in the BC mile. I don't think there are any spots that she fits well in the BC.

However, with that, I believe it's entirely possible she'd have cashed a nice check in the Distaff. The Sprint though, I think the race would need to fall apart for her to make any noise at all.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

There are several reasons I think the the Distaff is the spot to go. First off, I think Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle to overcome than anything in the Distaff. Even beyond Champagne, the sprint is a better and tougher field.

Next, she really hasn't been trained up to a sprint to end her season, has she? She's been running very effectively at longer distances. Who in their right mind uses the QEII as a prep for a grade one sprint??!

As for her ability to sprint vs. going 9 on dirt, well, if you can use the reasoning that she might have improved since her December sprint, I don't think it's a stretch to say she might have improved since the Oaks in what was essentially early May.

Her race in the Oaks, she sat off the lead and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen again. Also, I don't think Blind Luck is going to win the Distaff anyways. I think she's a toss.

That all being said, if she were my horse, I'd probably have run her in the Cal Cup and ran QT in the BC mile. I don't think there are any spots that she fits well in the BC.

However, with that, I believe it's entirely possible she'd have cashed a nice check in the Distaff. The Sprint though, I think the race would need to fall apart for her to make any noise at all.

I understand you don't like Blind Luck (I'm still stunned you called her a newer version of Octave) but I can't see how Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle than anything in the Distaff. I find that very far fetched.

Cassidy has terrific numbers with cutbacks (16%, $2.90 over last five years) and her defeat in the Oaks made it clear, at least to me, that she's going to need basically everything to go right to win at 9fs because it did for her and she was still beaten.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

This is a really nice field but ummm 6/5 on Midday?

With Plumania and Red Desire in the same field?

Ummm okaaaay.

There's one Euro that no one has mentioned that I am really looking fwd to betting. On another note, I wonder if Stoute will truly scratch Workforce if the course remains too hard this week.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

There's one Euro that no one has mentioned that I am really looking fwd to betting. On another note, I wonder if Stoute will truly scratch Workforce if the course remains too hard this week.

Oh you big tease. Don't leave the world waiting.