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  #41  
Old 01-31-2008, 09:31 AM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Four times in the last five years....

The last time was this summer when Shamdinan in the Secretariat ( 1 1/4 turf ).
I wouldn't even consider this as he was shipped to Arlington from the Euro connections, he never even saw the horse until his people got here.

Looking forward to him this year. I think he could be decent in Penna's care.
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  #42  
Old 01-31-2008, 09:40 AM
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miraja2 miraja2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
What do you think of Eaton's Gift, miraja?
Moderatey talented one-turn colt that needs the lead. He could certainly win this race, but I don't see him as a legitimate major stakes horse.
I am willing to concede to Bobby Fischer that Wincat is "interesting" given his debut, but I have little or no interest in the rest of this field.
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  #43  
Old 01-31-2008, 09:42 AM
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Bobby Fischer Bobby Fischer is offline
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good stuff.

I think this specific race will be about playing our opinion without making big adjustments for trainers.

My gut says that Daaher is so good, that Spring at Last needs a huge performance, and I do not expect that huge performance.

I do like the ship and win in Dubai. - If a horse needs a certain medication regimen, Dubai is about the last place that horse will run well.

To a lesser extent it is also a nice that SAL has handled several tracks.
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  #44  
Old 01-31-2008, 11:46 AM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Doug O'Neill outside of California on the dirt the past 5 years....

All Shippers 27 / 142 2.42 ROI

Under One Mile 14 / 54 3.94 ROI

Mile and 1 1/16 11 / 57 2.12 ROI

1 1/8 and over 2 / 31 0.15 ROI
Wow, thanks for those numbers. Even more telling than I expected.
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  #45  
Old 01-31-2008, 12:25 PM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
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if the track comes up sloppy would it be a good idea to include einstein?
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  #46  
Old 01-31-2008, 12:30 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
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Originally Posted by Antitrust32
if the track comes up sloppy would it be a good idea to include einstein?
Considering the 10% chance of rain on Saturday and only 20% on Friday I think there is more chance of Doctor Googles Boogles winning this race in a new world record time than the track coming up sloppy.
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  #47  
Old 01-31-2008, 12:34 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Originally Posted by Antitrust32
if the track comes up sloppy would it be a good idea to include einstein?

No. His odds will be absurdly low even on a fast track and on a wet track he will be even more ridiculously overbet.

Turf horses win on sloppy tracks because they are off the turf races filled with horses that can't run on the dirt. These races are almost never accurate predictors for performances against real dirt horses.
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  #48  
Old 01-31-2008, 12:48 PM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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Hasn't Brass Hat beat Fairbanks everytime they ran against one another?
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  #49  
Old 01-31-2008, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Sightseek
Hasn't Brass Hat beat Fairbanks everytime they ran against one another?
No. Fairbanks ran 4th in the Whitney, and Brass Hat ran 8th.
I don't think either of them will win here.
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  #50  
Old 01-31-2008, 01:09 PM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Considering the 10% chance of rain on Saturday and only 20% on Friday I think there is more chance of Doctor Googles Boogles winning this race in a new world record time than the track coming up sloppy.

you obviously have never lived in south florida!
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  #51  
Old 01-31-2008, 01:09 PM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
No. His odds will be absurdly low even on a fast track and on a wet track he will be even more ridiculously overbet.

Turf horses win on sloppy tracks because they are off the turf races filled with horses that can't run on the dirt. These races are almost never accurate predictors for performances against real dirt horses.

much appreciated
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  #52  
Old 01-31-2008, 01:13 PM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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Originally Posted by miraja2
No. Fairbanks ran 4th in the Whitney, and Brass Hat ran 8th.
I don't think either of them will win here.
Me either, but since I thought I walked into the "throw something against the wall and see if it sticks" thread I figured I would put it out there...
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  #53  
Old 01-31-2008, 01:14 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
you obviously have never lived in south florida!
Or I'm just really high on Doctor Googles Boogles.
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  #54  
Old 01-31-2008, 01:17 PM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Or I'm just really high on Doctor Googles Boogles.

i think you just really like the name.
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  #55  
Old 01-31-2008, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Sightseek
Me either, but since I thought I walked into the "throw something against the wall and see if it sticks" thread I figured I would put it out there...
I thought this was the thread where opinions are decimated by Andy and his band of trusty parrots?
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  #56  
Old 01-31-2008, 07:27 PM
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ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
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Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
I thought this was the thread where opinions are decimated by Andy and his band of trusty parrots?
Wrong. That would be every Derby Trail thread ever in history.
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  #57  
Old 01-31-2008, 07:58 PM
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Bobby Fischer Bobby Fischer is offline
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boy the odds maker didn't give the player anything with the Donn morning line. Einstein is 6-1. He should still get some love , but 4-1 would have been much better. Fine line between setting the line to reward the handicapper, and misleading the public....

What the odds maker didn't do in the Donn he did in the Swale with Coal Play opening at 5/2. Now we need Lapenta and Zito to keep him in.
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  #58  
Old 01-31-2008, 08:02 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Wrong. That would be every Derby Trail thread ever in history.
Fine. I'll let everyone alone to bet as they please.

I can think of one poster in particular that is extremely happy I butted in recently. But, I'm sure he's in the major minority.

I'll leave everyone to your words of wisdom Joey. Bash away. It's a thankless job but I'm sure you're up for it.
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  #59  
Old 01-31-2008, 08:11 PM
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pmacdaddy pmacdaddy is offline
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Fine. I'll let everyone alone to bet as they please.

I can think of one poster in particular that is extremely happy I butted in recently. But, I'm sure he's in the major minority.

I'll leave everyone to your words of wisdom Joey. Bash away. It's a thankless job but I'm sure you're up for it.
Actually stopped by the Big A today and got a G out for some walkin around money.
Last edited by pmacdaddy : 01-31-2008 at 08:22 PM.
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  #60  
Old 01-31-2008, 08:27 PM
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Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Fine. I'll let everyone alone to bet as they please.

I can think of one poster in particular that is extremely happy I butted in recently. But, I'm sure he's in the major minority.

I'll leave everyone to your words of wisdom Joey. Bash away. It's a thankless job but I'm sure you're up for it.
^^^ Needs to visit the Esoteric forum. Morty will cheer him up.
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