2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

Wow. . . still trying to cover all the bases. . . "I thought he'd either win or lose"

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Daheer was obviously very overrated off of his Cigar Mile win - where on a clear lead he set identical fractions to a wire-to-wire 8/1 shot 2yo Lukas maiden (Legacy Thief) ... however, hard to believe he was going to run that bad.

23.10 23.22 23.50 23.97

23.27 23.30 25.07 25.05


That's about as 'identical' as you could get.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Wow. . . still trying to cover all the bases. . . "I thought he'd either win or lose"

Amazing your comprehension skills are. I don't know how much more clearly I can say that I thought he would lose and expected he would lose. Saying that I knew he could win was in response to CSC saying that I said I didn't see any way that Daaher could win. I did. Just a small chance.

How about this for all of u that need it:

Next time Daaher runs a 1-turn race, I give him a 70% chance of winning. Next time he runs a 2-turn stakes race, I give him a 20% chance or less of winning. This is in case I'm working and can't post my pre-race analysis beforehand. Good enough?

[SentToStud]

DRF post race:
http://drf.com/news/article/92028.html

Sun-Sentinel:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/features...,6600025.story

McGlaughlin: "It's obvious something went wrong."

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

DRF post race:
http://drf.com/news/article/92028.html

Sun-Sentinel:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/features...,6600025.story

McGlaughlin: "It's obvious something went wrong."

but he also said it appears daaher came back sound.

[JJP]

Anyone who remembers the Cigar Mile knew Daaher had that race gift wrapped to him. As good a sprinter as Midnight Lute is, he has ZERO early speed. So who else was chasing him? The ass-dragging Naughty New Yorker and Exchanger. Exchanger has some talent but again, no early speed. If you are in good form and on the lead and all you have to put away is Exchanger, you'd better romp.

FWIW, how about the race Kiss the Kid ran? THe pace was strong and he put away Daaher and held on for 3rd. AP Arrow will probably be overbet next time out for his closing on a fast pace, pick up the pieces second.

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree about Kiss the Kid and can only wonder what his recent resume would look like if he had been ridden well in his last two starts. Frankly, his performance yesterday is probably a condemnation of the race in general....as how good could it have been if he ran so well.

[miraja2]

"Luzzi told McLaughlin that the Florida heat might have been Daaher's undoing.
"It's obvious something went wrong," McLaughlin said. "The [jockey] said it felt like he overheated. ... These things can happen. Right now he's walking OK."

I think that to some extent, since it seems right now at least that Daaher is physically okay, this makes KG's point about not putting "a line through the race" a valid one, although perhaps not for the reasons KG stated. It makes it worth figuring out - for fututre betting purposes - why the horse ran like that.
Was it the heat, as Luzzi stated?
Was it the layoff?
Is he the sort of horse that can handle added distance with a nice foundation, but can't first off a break?
Does he just not like the Gulfstream strip?
Is he a NY only horse? (Look at his record/figs in and out of New York)

I don't know the answer to these questions, but in light of that uncharacteristic performance, asking them seems valid. Simply putting a line through the race and saying "something went wrong" (or using it as evidence that he simply can't handle two-turns), doesn't seem productive to me. It makes sense to take an educated guess as to what that "something" might be.

[JJP]

Re: the Swale, I think BTW mentioned earlier that the race could go down (or should) in designation. I was underwhelmed by that field and the Swale seems to be living off its past reputation; there used to be a time when horses used the Swale as a prep for the Florida Derby but those days are long gone.

[blackthroatedwind]

Of course KG is right that you can't just completely dismiss Daaher's race out of hand. But, at the same time, he also very clearly did not run " his " race. It is in determining why that was, in any case, that matters in the future. But, his effort yesterday was also very clearly not indicative of his true talent. It's sort of semantics.

Maybe it was the early pressure that was completely his undoing, though considering the way the track had been playing both Friday and Saturday, and the way Daaher effectively chucked it relatively early, any reasonable race watcher would probably come to the conclusion that Daaher's effort was more than just a case of a need the lead type that will wilt with early pressure going two turns.

Of course one can say you need to weigh the many possibilities in racing, and that's one of the reasons the game is endlessly fascinating, but it is in one's actual ability to correctly analyze these possibilities that will ultimately determine how successful they are in predicting the future. I may well not be running to play Daaher in any similar scenerios in the future, and his connections may agree and avoid them, but I also wholeheartedly believe that for whatever reason Daaher did not run " his " true race yesterday.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Of course KG is right that you can't just completely dismiss Daaher's race out of hand. But, at the same time, he also very clearly did not run " his " race. It is in determining why that was, in any case, that matters in the future. But, his effort yesterday was also very clearly not indicative of his true talent. It's sort of semantics.

Maybe it was the early pressure that was completely his undoing, though considering the way the track had been playing both Friday and Saturday, and the way Daaher effectively chucked it relatively early, any reasonable race watcher would probably come to the conclusion that Daaher's effort was more than just a case of a need the lead type that will wilt with early pressure going two turns.

Of course one can say you need to weigh the many possibilities in racing, and that's one of the reasons the game is endlessly fascinating, but it is in one's actual ability to correctly analyze these possibilities that will ultimately determine how successful they are in predicting the future. I may well not be running to play Daaher in any similar scenerios in the future, and his connections may agree and avoid them, but I also wholeheartedly believe that for whatever reason Daaher did not run " his " true race yesterday.

Hindsight is 20/20 and I sincerely hope any of the great folks on this board that believed Daaher was an opportunistic winner of the Cigar Mile that could not get a route of ground while running quick early fractions prospered. I cannot imagine how something didn't go wrong yesterday. While he went fast early, he was on the best part of the track and numerous horses who looked terrible on the turn found another gear in the stretch (Referee in the 7th) while they were on the rail. Maybe Daaher is not a two-turn horse and maybe he can't contest early fractions and stay, but I'm definitely willing to give him another chance.

Is it such a tragedy if he's maybe just a stalking/pace-making miler?

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Of course KG is right that you can't just completely dismiss Daaher's race out of hand. But, at the same time, he also very clearly did not run " his " race. It is in determining why that was, in any case, that matters in the future. But, his effort yesterday was also very clearly not indicative of his true talent. It's sort of semantics.

Maybe it was the early pressure that was completely his undoing, though considering the way the track had been playing both Friday and Saturday, and the way Daaher effectively chucked it relatively early, any reasonable race watcher would probably come to the conclusion that Daaher's effort was more than just a case of a need the lead type that will wilt with early pressure going two turns.

Of course one can say you need to weigh the many possibilities in racing, and that's one of the reasons the game is endlessly fascinating, but it is in one's actual ability to correctly analyze these possibilities that will ultimately determine how successful they are in predicting the future. I may well not be running to play Daaher in any similar scenerios in the future, and his connections may agree and avoid them, but I also wholeheartedly believe that for whatever reason Daaher did not run " his " true race yesterday.

I can't add anything to that, exactly what I was trying to relate to King Glorious last night. Perfect summation.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by CSC

I can't add anything to that, exactly what I was trying to relate to King Glorious last night. Perfect summation.

But, I also think that KG was trying to make a similar point and I was wrong to jump on him the way I did.

I also should have put the quotations around " true ", and not his, in the final sentence.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is it such a tragedy if he's maybe just a stalking/pace-making miler?

NT

Not at all. There are some nice mile races. I don't know that they want to change this horse's style, and that may be the only way he wins a grade2+ 2-trn 9 furlong without an uncontested pace. Changing his style is the ONLY way he wins a grade2+ 10 furlong race. I thought going into this race that Daaher and Kiss could run away, but the race was contested and it kind of exposed his running style a little bit. I think the horse is fine, he probably needs two weeks and some good feed to get back to where he was. BTW is correct in that we will be lucky to see him soon. He has rated in the past in his career. I just don't personally think I would tinker with him now, and I don't think that is what McLaughlin will do. Let him be a miler. One of the best milers.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

23.10 23.22 23.50 23.97

23.27 23.30 25.07 25.05


That's about as 'identical' as you could get.

Newsflash - in horse racing terms, "setting fractions" refers to the pace.

You think it was a major accomplishment that Daheer, winning a Grade 1, outfinished a 2yo maiden after setting similar fractions?

Jesus Christ.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I think it's a mistake to discount his performance today. We don't know how good Daaher is in two-turn races when he's facing some pace pressure. Perhaps today's race is indicative of how he'd run everytime he is faced with a scenario like today. When you say he's obviously better than we saw today, you are basing that assumption on having seen him run under totally different conditions today. Before automatically assuming it was just an off day, consider that it might not have been.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This really takes the cake. I'm not saying he's a true 1 1/8th horse but if you think today's performance is a fair indication of Daaher's ability you are flat out wrong. Horses that have run as well as he has in the past don't pack it in the way he did unless there was a problem.

Does icing come with this cake?

[blackthroatedwind]

You must have scored out.....otherwise this is pretty pathetic. But at least now I can bring back every one of your wacky opinions that proves totally false.

For the record.....I made a huge bet on Temporary Saint who finished second to the completely impossible winner.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For the record.....I made a huge bet on Temporary Saint who finished second to the completely impossible winner.

Then you must've absolutely LOVED Lopez' ride.

I feel for you.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You must have scored out.....otherwise this is pretty pathetic. But at least now I can bring back every one of your wacky opinions that proves totally false.

For the record.....I made a huge bet on Temporary Saint who finished second to the completely impossible winner.

About what I expected from you. You went out of your way to tell me how wrong and patheric I was with what I said after the race and then when the next race shows that at least in this case, I wasn't so wrong, you still want to let me know how pathetic I am. If your agenda wasn't clear beforehand, it's crystal clear now. Thanks.

No, I didn't score on this race. I didn't think Daaher could lose and I didn't bet it.