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#1
08-22-2006, 10:11 PM
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Saratoga - Wednesday August 22 - Value Plays???
Okay guys, I'm not gonna lie. I'm a little bored now. I downloaded the card for Toga and honestly, I think there could be some prices coming in. Without further adieu (who really sucks at 3, btw) here are my thoughs (not worth anything) about Saratoga tomorrow...
1 - I think the 8 Raceland hits a wall well before the running begins but his ability for high Beyers and flashy results should take a lot of money at the windows at 5/2 ML. Frankly, I just cant see a son of City Zip winning at 9f, but this field is pretty bad. The 3 Pay Attention (6/1) teams up with Castellano again, but its tough to look past the 5-0-0-1 record at the Spa and his 5 for 44 lifetime mark. The often claimed Hunter's Tale (3/1) looms large and anything near his last should get the job done. 2 - Another stupid NY-bred cheap maiden claiming race. Most of these drop out of Msw's earlier in the meet where they were soundly beaten, so your guess is as good as mine. I'm a bit intrigued by All Fired Up (12/1) who picks up Leparoux who seems to have a thing with the babies. Phone Willy (15/1) got a terrible trip last time but I'm not sure what to expect from that one. Adds Lasix. The favorite should take money because Johnny V. climbs on, but I see nothing in that one that is special. 3 - Nice field of former stakes runers assembled for a 6f jaunt. Nice to see the old gelding Caller One back on the track, but time seems to have passed that one by. Same can be said for Voodoo, who has shown nothing in two starts this year. Godolphin's Safsoof (3/1) should be very tough in here coming in off a disappointing turf effort. The favorite, Land Mine, for Rick Dutrow has never put two exceptional races together back to back, and I look for slight regression out of that one. I keep coming back to Pinky Freud, who brings his enterouge and jockey down from Finger Lakes, but I'm not sure that I can see that one winning. The Brisnet figures make him a bit more competitive and on par with the rest than the Beyers do. At 15/1 he is worth a second glance... 4 - A race for fans of connections. Graham Motion and Johnny Velazquez team up with the 2 Like Royalty, a son of El Prado (shout out to Blockheadd). Turf master Christophe Clement and Garrett Gomez team up with the 8 Golden Lips, whose strong turf works indicate that one should relish the grass. Taking a bit of a look at 12/1 Elite Status for the Dogwood folks as well. Johannesburg's progeny seem to be taking very well to the grass and he does have the advantage of a start under his belt. At 12/1, he's worth a look, but for the sake of choosing I'll go with Golden Lips. 5 - Cheap claimers, Gander's specialty. I've taken a liking to Mott and Luzzi's Salty and Saintly who is 3/1 ML and could find himself alone up front as he cuts back in distance. Low Creek would interest me, but I refuse to be D.W. Lukas who is winning at a paltry 6% clip this meet. 6 - Wow, another group of immense talent. These chicks are terrible...Small Potatoes (3/1) picks up Bejarano and has rallied gamely on the outside late in her last two, but with a career record of 8-0-0-1 shes hard to love. Sadly, career high Beyers of 60 are higher than most in here. I cant believe the winner of this race gets almost 30 grand. Sickening. Anyway, I'll take my chances with a 20/1 longshot first time starter, Shesdelycius, for Tim McKinsey and Channing Hill. 7 - I'm hoping that Cumulus Nimbus (8/1) takes a bit more money than his ML indicates given that he did just miss in his first turf try last time out. Walked early but got caught late which isnt very appealing. Obvious class here is Cornelio on Special Interest (7/2), but oops I'm not betting Wayne this meet. I'll take the entrymates - Ernie Bogen and Broadway Bud - at 9/2 with Ernie Bogen and John Velazquez looking good. 8 - Another damn NY bred race, but atleast this one is a stakes. Ferocious Won at 8/5 is somewhat formidible having won the NY Derby and Mike Lee earlier this year and gets Prado back. Dutrow only adds to the appeal. The second choice is the undefeated Run Red Run who continues to improve for Thomas Bush and he already has a win at Saratoga. Unfortunately Desormeaux is aboard (with Johnny V sitting this one out) and Indian Hawke will ensure that he doesnt get an easy lead like he did last time out. I sort of like the outside horse, Shuffling Madness, at 7/2 ML as he picks up Castellano but has played second fiddle to the favorites in his last two. He's not worth 7/2 but if the odds creep up a bit, I'll take a chance that they go too quickly early and this one reels em in late. 9 - More sucky horses. This field of ten horses has, get this, 4 career turf wins! Sorority Wildcat (3/1) has been trounced in her last three by stakes caliber horses and drops in big for a tag here which either means abandon ship, something is wrong, or she's a lock. I'll take a chance with Fernando Jara aboard Act As If (8/1) to like the surface (by Smokey Glacken) and to hopefully lull them to sleep early. Sorry if anyone actually took the time to read this, but hey it killed an hour or so. Good luck at the windows everyone!
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Reppin the Duquesne University class of 2009 . (Then its time to get a real job  )I cant believe what a bunch of nerds we are. We're looking up money laundering in the dictionary. www.myspace.com/dustinfabian Last edited by 1st_Saturday_in_May : 08-22-2006 at 10:44 PM. 
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#2
08-22-2006, 11:32 PM
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I'm thinking about a significant win bet on Pinky Freud tommorow. You don't bring your own jock down for nothing. Plus, even though Ferraro hasn't had much luck this year, he has in the past shipping from FL to SAR. He'll go off way higher than that morning line too unless a bunch of stable money comes in. The only thing that scares me is the optional tag. . .
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@BDiDonatoTDN
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#4
08-23-2006, 02:22 PM
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Well, so far I'm getting my ass handed to me....
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Reppin the Duquesne University class of 2009 . (Then its time to get a real job )I cant believe what a bunch of nerds we are. We're looking up money laundering in the dictionary. www.myspace.com/dustinfabian
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#5
08-23-2006, 02:28 PM
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I only have one win on the day 1st Sat. Out of five races: 1 win; 1 second; and three thirds. YIPEE! (I had Golden Lips too)
 Sixth I like Ms. Western Charm 7th Benedict (I almost went with Broadway Bud) 8th (I DON'T HAVE ANY IDEA BUT I LIKE Ferocious Won in this spot. 9th Act as If. So now we can both have our asses handed to us.  (1st Sat, I didn't mean any harshness. I know you are betting real money and I am not.)
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"Until one has loved an animal, part of their soul remains unawaken. 
Last edited by Buffymommy : 08-23-2006 at 02:38 PM.
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#6
08-23-2006, 03:48 PM
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I had the #2 horse in race 7 with Santos that just got the most miserable trip down the stretch. Next time. In race 8 here, i too like shuffliing madness. I dont think the dutrow horse wants to go that far but i think he will soften run red run up enough for shuffling madness to pick up the pieces. 7-1 right now looks like a good bet. Taking this horse to win and place and doing an exacta over the 3. Good luck!
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#7
08-23-2006, 03:53 PM
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Reppin the Duquesne University class of 2009 . (Then its time to get a real job )I cant believe what a bunch of nerds we are. We're looking up money laundering in the dictionary. www.myspace.com/dustinfabian
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#8
08-23-2006, 03:54 PM
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#9
08-23-2006, 03:58 PM
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Linear Mode
