#1
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Beyer Speed Figure Question
I was looking for advice in regards to beyer speed figure. If a horse runs a higher beyer speed figure in a lesser race does that have to be taken in consideration when he jumps up to a higher level or supposedly better quality of horse who run lesser beyers.
Hope this make sense and thanks to anyone who can help |
#2
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I "think" I understand your question.
I believe a horse can run a higher figure against lower competition due to having race / pace factors in his favor. Also, was the track sloppy? sealed? When a cheap horse jumps up and runs a big figure against cheap horses, he wont necessarily translate that to better competition. PLUS, you have to factor in the age of the horse. Is he a young horse maturing? or an older horse with proven past running lines. |
#3
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I'm going to go ahead and say that he's talking about Paynter.
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The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs." |
#4
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I'm not referring to the Belmont Stakes. For example horse runs a Beyer in a maiden non winners of 1 of 73 and now jumps to maiden special weight or allowance and is running against horses that are running in the mid 60's.
Does the horse that ran the 73 become a strong play because his beyer is 6-8 points higher. Thanks for feedback |
#5
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I think we need a condition book 101 here first.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs." |
#6
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It's whole purpose in the first place was to serve as a measure to compare efforts from different environments. Now, does it actually work like that? Well, no. The beyer is just another piece of information handicappers use to analyze a race. It's is essentially someone's opinion, like the ML odds. In reality it's impossible to compare a 5F dirt sprint to a 12F turf race using a single number.
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#7
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Thank you for the response.
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#8
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#9
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I'll bite...
Theoretically yes. But the one thing - and I think most on here would agree with - is the abstract role that "class" plays. It's impossible to truly quantify class. Beyer speed figures (and other similar, well-designed figures) do the best job out there, however, at capturing the overall ability of a race horse. But horses with inferior figures, who are dropping in class, seem to improve enough as a result of the class drop (or other factors, such as the pace of the race) to support the idea that class plays a role. Perhaps this part illusion, or hogwash... but I think if all else was equal, and two horses had the same figures but one was earned against tougher horses, I would take the class dropper over the other almost always. That said, maybe someone else can explain this better... |
#10
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Like what? And this isn't twitter , you can speak in complete sentences.
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#11
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#12
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I would assume that the ROI for someone who simply bet the best last out Beyer every race would be pretty low. |
#13
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The ROI is $1.85 for top last out Beyer figures. Win takeout is typically about 16%...so a $1.68 ROI would be average. Obviously, anyone who just blindly picks up a form and bets the highest last out number is a fool. You're going to lose 7.5% of every dollar you bet doing that and you might as well as pull a lever on a slot machine for the same rake because you'll at least have a slim chance at rare jackpot opportunities. |
#14
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That is a lot higher than I would have thought, thanks for the info.
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