Updated Derby Prep Pace Figs

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 04-05-2009, 05:29 PM

My pace & final time figures for the three weekend Derby preps...

* Illinois Derby (93 pace 99 final)
* Wood Memorial (92 pace 102 final)
* Santa Anita Derby (81 pace 94 final)

Updated pace figs for all Derby preps so far:

Dirt: (13 preps) Ranked from Fastest Paced to Slowest Paced

#1: Fountain of Youth (114) Leader at pace call: This One's For Phil

#2: Rebel (105) Leader at pace call: Old Fashioned

#3: Southwest (101) Leader at pace call: Silver City

#4: Florida Derby (94) Leader at pace call: Quality Road

#5. Illinois Derby (93) Leader at pace call: Perfect Song

#6. Wood Memorial (92) Leader at pace call: Lord Justice

#7: Gotham (89) Leader at pace call: Mr. Fantasy

#8: Risen Star (84) Leader at pace call: It Happened Again

#9t: Holy Bull (83) Leader at pace call: Bear's Rocket

#9t: Sam Davis (83) Leader at pace call: A P Cardinal

#11: Louisiana Derby (79) Leader at pace call: Papa Clem

#12: Tampa Derby (78) Leader at pace call: Join In The Dance

#13: Lecomte (75) Leader at pace call: Au Moon

Fake dirt: (8 preps)

#1. Sham (103) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#2. San Rafael (97) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#3. California Derby (86)

#4. El Camino Real Derby (84)

#5. Lane's End (83)

#6. Santa Anita Derby (81)

#7. Bob Lewis (73)

#8. San Felipe (69)

* Surprisingly - the Illinois Derby came back with a strong 99 final time figure considering how horrendous the field looked on paper. Musket Man was racing 8th at the pace call in the Tampa Derby - which is the 12th slowest paced of the 13 dirt Derby preps so far .. and he managed to pass seven horses in the final 2.5 furlongs of that race to win by a neck with a 90 Beyer over longshot pace call leader Join in the Dance who finished 2nd.

Musket Man did improve his final time number quite a bit in this win - but this time he got a much more honest pace to setup his late close.

2nd place finisher Giant Oak also surged forward in the final time fig department. In his last start he raced dead last in 9th place at the pace call in the Louisana Derby .. which was the 11th slowest paced of 13 dirt Derby preps so far .. and he managed to pass five horses in the final 2.5 furlongs. The much faster pace also helped him.

The 51/1 mega longshot 3rd place finisher His Greatness raced in the Rebel Stakes last time out - which is the 2nd fastest paced of the 13 Dirt Derby preps so far. In the Rebel .. His Greatness raced 6th early on - and faded badly to finish 7th of 9 beaten 29 lengths. While the 93 pace fig in the Illinois Derby was very solid ... it was a far cry from the scorching 105 turned in by pace call leader Old Fashioned in the Rebel.

This time, insead of being outrun early and stopping to a walk late ... His Greatness pressed 3/1 shot Perfect Song from 2nd, and ran well to finish a non-threatening 3rd with a new career best final time fig.

* The pace was solid in the Wood Memorial - and luckily so for winner I Want Revenge. Getting left at the gate would have been much worse had the pace been slower than it was.

With a slower pace - Joe Talamo would have been harshly criticized because I Want Revenge would have absolutely tried to run over the top of horses - and Talamo would have been forced to either check him several times while rating him into submission or wheel him outside of horses and let him run at the leaders .. which would have quickened the pace of the horses he passed.

Because the pace was solid .. and because I Want Revenge has ran well with deep closing tactics before - that total horror show scenario never developed.

IWR's 11 point final time regression is obviously all about a tale of two trips - and even though he was very fortunate the pace was as solid as it was .. he still ran every bit as well as he did last out and probably took more dirt in his face than he might take in the Derby.

* The Santa Anita Derby was run on fake dirt. The Ky Derby won't be .. so who cares?