4/14 (OP): AK Derby (G1), OP H. (G2), Count Fleet (G3), Northern Spur

[Kasept]

8th (3:57) Count Fleet H. (G3)

6 Furlongs | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Our Dark Knight Santana R Jr 112 L
2 Silver Magnus Vazquez R A 112 L
3 Izzy Rules Maldonado E 113 L
4 Outta Tune Thompson T J 114 L
5 Apriority Bejarano R 118 L
6 Hamazing Destiny Court J K 115 L



9th (4:32) Northern Spur S.

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 King Coral Berry M C 115 L
2 Pee H Dee Thompson T J 117 L
3 Double Rah Rah Court J K 115 L
4 Explain Velazquez J R 115 L
5 Master Rick Nakatani C S 115 L
6 Jimmer Cintron A 115 L
7 Drill Bejarano R 122 L



10th (5:07) Oaklawn H. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 Nehro Nakatani C S 115 L
2 Win Willy Ocampo I 114 L
3 Don Dulce Court J K 112 L
4 Stachys Birzer A E 113 L
5 Hymn Book Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Alternation Quinonez L S 117 L
7 Yawanna Twist Luzzi M J 115 L
8 Ron the Greek Lezcano J 118 L



11th (5:45) Arkansas Derby (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 Cozzetti Lezcano J 118 L
2 Stat Velazquez J R 118 L
3 Najjaar Borel C H 118 L
4 Jake Mo Berry M C 122 L
5 Secret Circle Bejarano R 122 L
6 Isn't He Clever Albarado R J 122 Blk-Off L
7 Optimizer Court J K 118 L
8 Atigun Thompson T J 118 FTL
9 Sabercat Nakatani C S 122 L
10 Raconteur Decarlo C P 122 L
11 Bodemeister Smith M E 118 Blk-Off L

[knickslions2]

Surprised no chatter on this race. Looks tough. Kind of liking Stat.

[Arletta]

Win Willy

[pucknut]

Ron the Greek will remove any lingering doubt as to who the best older male horse in the country is today the eclipse award coronation trail marches on he wins this going away

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Arletta

Win Willy

Jake Mo / Raconteur in the Derby and yes my handicapping has been extraordinary lately so you all might want to steer clear of these two.

[Alabama Stakes]

any pp's for ark derby ?

[my miss storm cat]

Here...

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Jake Mo / Raconteur in the Derby and yes my handicapping has been extraordinary lately so you all might want to steer clear of these two.

I like Raconteur. Currently 43-1. I will not be betting. Probably wins.

[King Glorious]

Yeah, that looks to be the horse to beat in Kentucky. Very easy and decisive win for Bodemeister. Secret Circle did about as well as could be expected. He needed oxygen tanks to get to the wire but he held for second but that was a romp for the winner.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I like Raconteur. Currently 43-1. I will not be betting. Probably wins.

Everything I touch lately...

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Yeah, that looks to be the horse to beat in Kentucky. Very easy and decisive win for Bodemeister. Secret Circle did about as well as could be expected. He needed oxygen tanks to get to the wire but he held for second but that was a romp for the winner.

Bullshit.

It'll be some random horse who wins once again and the best, whoever that is, will finish somewhere in the middle.

Cheers to all of you who hit this.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Everything I touch lately...




Bullshit.

It'll be some random horse who wins once again and the best, whoever that is, will finish somewhere in the middle.

Cheers to all of you who hit this.

I didn't say he's going to win. But you just said that whoever the best is will finish somewhere in the middle. That may be him.

[my miss storm cat]

Okay.

World Ace is my pick in the Satsuki Sho tonight so just so you and Coachie know who to avoid...

[Travis Stone]

I know it was the type of performance you're supposed to bet against next time out, but it's hard to not be impressed by that win today. Not sure about him in three weeks but still.

[Indian Charlie]

It's too bad Bode drew the outside, as there was talk he was going to be rated for this race.

Once he drew out there, obviously, that was no longer feasible.

Would have been nice to see how he did not being sent and then getting an uncontested lead.

[Calzone Lord]

Yeah. I think Bodemeister can and will be compared with horses like Big Brown, Bellamy Road, Curlin, and Congaree.

He's similar enough to Big Brown, Curlin, and Congaree in that he's very lightly raced and in the ball park of each on ability at this point.

However, all three of them eventually proved they didn't need the lead to run peak efforts.

Bellamy Road wasn't able to prove that in the one chance he got chasing a 21-flat type sprinter like Spanish Chestnut around while hung up wide.

Curlin got clogged up behind a lot of traffic in the Ky Derby, Big Brown destroyed a very weak field because he was able to rate, and Congaree was a great 3rd chasing a 22 and change pace with Point Given breathing down his neck and then stopping.

How well Bodemeister performs if he's 4th or 5th about 3.5 lengths off of the pace is really the question...and I think it's basically a guess-work question.

[Rudeboyelvis]

He ran a faster Ark Derby than Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, and Curlin. From the outside, on the lead at every point of call. That's a freak of nature right there.

[Calzone Lord]

If I was in the position of Bodemeister's owner... I would get Bisnath Parboo on the phone right now and encourage him not to run Trinniberg (who has enough Graded earnings) and give Parboo a decent sprinter or two to train and have him pick something fast out of OBS April for him to train.

Parboo is a freaking awesome sprint trainer and Bodemeister probably has zero chance in the Derby if Trinniberg runs. I suppose if you owned Dullahan or any other closer or plodder you could always try the opposite and encourage him to run and "get seen" or whatever.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

How well Bodemeister performs if he's 4th or 5th about 3.5 lengths off of the pace is really the question...and I think it's basically a guess-work question.

I think over the long run betting against Bodemeister-type horses is positive expectation for that reason... there's some guess work. It's hard to pair-up a big effort where you were loose on the lead with no opposition... much less in the Derby. Lots of talent there though.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think over the long run betting against Bodemeister-type horses is positive expectation for that reason... there's some guess work. It's hard to pair-up a big effort where you were loose on the lead with no opposition... much less in the Derby. Lots of talent there though.

Not to be too anal but I would disagree here.

It depends who all else runs of course -- but he is a horse with an easy trip last race that will tower over a field on everyones figures.

Generally those type of horses certainly aren't positive expectation...but also certainly don't perform worse than the takeout. If I had to guess -- these type horses are maybe $1.80 ROI types and at such short prices that you can't make any money with them.

Obviously not wise to bet on them generically speaking... but equally unwise to go hunting them out to bet against them.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

He ran a faster Ark Derby than Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, and Curlin. From the outside, on the lead at every point of call. That's a freak of nature right there.

Just watched. Very impressive.