The Day Horse Racing Died

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by scanman

Fair question. For my part, after having full and part ownership a few years ago in four horses (one was a stakes winner), I have no intertest in owning considering the current state of racing. For the most part, current ownership at the medium to top level is by "old" racing money. I haven't done a statistical review of the ownership of the past 5 years of graded race winners, (nor do I have a lot time to do so) but if you do, I think you will find my statement will bare that out.

Here is a link from the Jockey Club showing the foal crop stats for the past 18 years: http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=2 . In the US it's down 51%, down 57% in Canada and down 67% in Puerto Rico. I'm sure if you were to check other countries, you would find similar numbers. I think that is an indication that new ownership is sparse and there is less and less interest in breeding and subsequently racing ownership, except by "old" money. I think you would also find that it is the 50+ yrs olds and older who are responsible for the majority each track's handle.

Additionally, I talk to a lot of people in and out of racing (though have some interest) here in the US, Australia, and New Zealand and the sentiment from my conversations support what I stated about new fans coming into the game (Ownership or punting).

Concerning fan base, I'm sure you could go to any track in the US and see that attendence figures are way down. Perhaps the exception here is the small fair meets that run for a couple of weekends a year. People have a day out to enjoy the excitment, so perhaps there is hope there.

Of course overseas attendence is still good as many countries still see horse racing as a sport with entertainment value verses a mechanism for gambling.

Every year we get this great platform in the Derby/TC and the BC where we get the spotlight and cannot build on it. Then we have the outcome in the Derby that many of the casual observers will see as unjust, will walk away thinking, what kind of a "clown show" is racing when the winner (fastest horse) in not declared the winner. Subsequently, they don't return or go to their local track (if there is one) to allow whatever interest they may have had in racing grow.

As far as horses regaining their momentum, maybe/maybe not. I've seen 2 and 3 mile hurdle/steeplecase races (horses who have expended way more effort) and see horses regain/re-rally to win. Concerning the Derby, they still had 2 furlongs left to race and from my perspective, once they all straighten up at the top of the stretch, none of them had an excuse for not going by MS. Also, keep in mind that MS also lost momentum by not getting a hold of the track/the bump with the #1, but once all straighten up, it was "game on" and MS was easily the best.

No offense but you didn’t answer the question. At the end of the day I think far more people find the result just and fair than a clown show.

Comparing a steeplechase race to the Derby is a pretty far reach. Long Range Toddy was totally eliminated when he took up. You expected him to re rally and make up the 10 lengths or so he lost? War of Will was in the midst of his move when he almost clipped heels. You thought he should have been able to regain his momentum and gain an additional 5 lengths on a horse who miraculously was running his final 1/4 faster than his prior two?

Sorry, but it just doesn’t work that way.

[scanman]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

No offense but you didn’t answer the question. At the end of the day I think far more people find the result just and fair than a clown show.

Comparing a steeplechase race to the Derby is a pretty far reach. Long Range Toddy was totally eliminated when he took up. You expected him to re rally and make up the 10 lengths or so he lost? War of Will was in the midst of his move when he almost clipped heels. You thought he should have been able to regain his momentum and gain an additional 5 lengths on a horse who miraculously was running his final 1/4 faster than his prior two?

Sorry, but it just doesn’t work that way.

No offense taken. Respect to your for asking. It was difficult to quantify, but I did my best to try and answer it for you based on my experience.

The jump racing examples were that which I have seen in the last couple hundred yards of a race. I'm sure it has happened on the flat, maybe not often, but it does happen.

Concerning Long Range Toddy, I'm sure the "tap" that War of Will gave him at the 3/8th pole didn't help and may have started his demise. Also keep in mind, if Long Range Toddy was fast enough, he would have never lost his position off of Maximum Security's right flank, by allowing War of Will to squeeze by. Long Range Toddy had already started to weaken out of the race. The contact at the 5/16th pole just hastened his retreat. He was never going to contest the finish of the race.

By the time they hit the quarter pole Maximum Security, Code of Honor, War of Will, and Country House were all in full stride. It looked to me that Code of Honor had Maximum Security by about a head, with Country House a neck behind Maximum Security and War of Will about 3/4 length behind Maximum Security. War of Will was never 5 lengths back after the contact, maybe 1 1/4 length at best. He lost maybe a 1/2 length in the contact and was beaten 4 1/2 lengths at the finish.

So at the 1/4 pole, we have 4 horses across the track within a length of each other. Each horse had a fair opportunity to win. Only Maximum Security and War of Will were affected by the contact. Country House may have had to go one more path wide but never lost momentum and was continuously ridden. Also while approaching the 1/4 pole it looked like Country House came in a bit and gave War of Will a "tap". Though the video angle is not the best (no head on available).

From the 1/4 pole on, the afore mentioned 4 horses all, if good enough, could win.

At the 1/8 pole, Maximum Security had gone clear of Country House by a length, with War of Will and Code of Honor 1 1/4 behind. At this point, Gafflione stated that War of Will was done. He could not match the pace of Maximum Security and was never going to beat him. He discussed as much with Casse, that's why no objection from them.

At the 1/16 pole, Maximum Security has extended his lead over Country House to what looks like 1 1/2 length with Code of Honor passing War of Will about 2 lengths back.

At the Finish, Maximum Security is still extending his lead to win by 1 3/4 length over Country House with Code of Honor beaten in third by 2 1/2 lengths.

Just out of curiousity, I just read the Equibase chart. What a piece of fiction, expecially concerning BodeExpress. Again, he felt the knock on effect when War of Will came out and tapped Long Range Toddy, who in turn tapped BodeExpress at the 3/8 pole. BodeExpress took up slightly during the subsequent contact, but he was already done by that point and was never going to figure in the finish.

If I missed something, let me know.

[Dahoss]

I’ve watched the race probably 30 times and I’m pretty confident in race watching abilities, so with all due respect I disagree on your take on how easy it’d be to re rally after having your momentum taken away at the most crucial part of the race.

Obviously we don’t agree which is cool. It’d be boring if everyone agreed, but I appreciate you explaining your side.

I maintain that a foul on a Monday is a foul in the Derby. Even if War of Will and Long Range Toddy were not going to win, they had legitimate shots at the exacta, tri or super and that was taken away when they were fouled by the winner. That has always been justification for a DQ. It maintains the integrity of the betting.

I hate to play the what if game but if War of Will goes down do people still not agree a DQ was warranted?

I understand the gripes of consistency and I’m sure I’ll be complaining about a DQ soon enough.

[scanman]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’ve watched the race probably 30 times and I’m pretty confident in race watching abilities, so with all due respect I disagree on your take on how easy it’d be to re rally after having your momentum taken away at the most crucial part of the race.

Obviously we don’t agree which is cool. It’d be boring if everyone agreed, but I appreciate you explaining your side.

I maintain that a foul on a Monday is a foul in the Derby. Even if War of Will and Long Range Toddy were not going to win, they had legitimate shots at the exacta, tri or super and that was taken away when they were fouled by the winner. That has always been justification for a DQ. It maintains the integrity of the betting.

I hate to play the what if game but if War of Will goes down do people still not agree a DQ was warranted?

I understand the gripes of consistency and I’m sure I’ll be complaining about a DQ soon enough.

So true. I enjoyed the conversation and certainly respect you and others who see the race differently. I've been a soccer referee for about 20 years (over 3000 matches) and you can imagine the senarios that we discuss. 100 referees watching the same incident and 50 going one way and 50 going the other. That's why I always respect someone else's view. Sometimes they win me over, sometimes they don't; and vice-versa.

I'm sure you are just as passionate about racing as I am. Wishful thinking to hope we could have 100% clean races, but like you said, that would make racing a bit boring. Cheers.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’ve watched the race probably 30 times and I’m pretty confident in race watching abilities, so with all due respect I disagree on your take on how easy it’d be to re rally after having your momentum taken away at the most crucial part of the race.

Obviously we don’t agree which is cool. It’d be boring if everyone agreed, but I appreciate you explaining your side.

I maintain that a foul on a Monday is a foul in the Derby. Even if War of Will and Long Range Toddy were not going to win, they had legitimate shots at the exacta, tri or super and that was taken away when they were fouled by the winner. That has always been justification for a DQ. It maintains the integrity of the betting.

I hate to play the what if game but if War of Will goes down do people still not agree a DQ was warranted?

I understand the gripes of consistency and I’m sure I’ll be complaining about a DQ soon enough.

What if War of Will didn't try to bull his way through in the first place? Why do the people who are adamant about the DQ being the correct call refuse to even acknowledge that War of Will was unsettled and rank from the time they went into the clubhouse turn until he bulled his way out from behind Maximum Security and into the 18, 21 and 20 midway on the turn to begin with? Country House's "momentum" was actually impacted more by those bumps than anything Maximum Security did. Why is there no outrage that Tyler G's inability to settle War of Will for half a mile "could have" resulted in "carnage" in the same way they are outraged about Maximum Security's actions?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

What if War of Will didn't try to bull his way through in the first place? Why do the people who are adamant about the DQ being the correct call refuse to even acknowledge that War of Will was unsettled and rank from the time they went into the clubhouse turn until he bulled his way out from behind Maximum Security and into the 18, 21 and 20 midway on the turn to begin with? Country House's "momentum" was actually impacted more by those bumps than anything Maximum Security did. Why is there no outrage that Tyler G's inability to settle War of Will for half a mile "could have" resulted in "carnage" in the same way they are outraged about Maximum Security's actions?

Because what you are describing didn’t happen. War of Will and Tyler G did nothing wrong. Country House wasn’t impacted at all.

Confirmation bias based on that ridiculous video you were talking about yesterday.

How Tyler G is now the villain in al of this is sad. He literally did nothing wrong and rode a tremendous race.

[Alabama Stakes]

He did a Paco Lopez and tried to make a hole where there wasn’t a hole and basically caused the whole thing. That’s why he didn’t claim foul. His mount’s head is on The winners flank while the winner was still in the 2 path. It’s clear as day.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He did a Paco Lopez and tried to make a hole where there wasn’t a hole and basically caused the whole thing. That’s why he didn’t claim foul. His mount’s head is on The winners flank while the winner was still in the 2 path. It’s clear as day.

You’re never right about anything so not sure why this would be any different.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Because what you are describing didn’t happen. War of Will and Tyler G did nothing wrong. Country House wasn’t impacted at all.

Confirmation bias based on that ridiculous video you were talking about yesterday.

How Tyler G is now the villain in all of this is sad. He literally did nothing wrong and rode a tremendous race.

This is just good old NBC's coverage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci_ychn7ga0

At 1:09 seconds on the video, WOW is clearly unsettled in behind MS. Are you telling me you can't see him throwing his head? Maybe it's the kickback of mud, but he clearly does not want to be in that spot.

From about the 1:16 mark to right about 1:50, Tyler G is literally standing in the irons, restraining WOW, who is clearly eager to get out of that spot. Please tell me that I am making that up and you do not see that either?

At 1:59 you can see WOW's head come out from behind MS as Tyler goes for the seam and he clearly bumps into LRT, who in turn bumps BE and finally CH. Again, you don't see any of that happening in this video? This is well before MS ever crosses out over that tractor track/puddle as they straighten away. And good for Tyler for trying to find that seam. That's horse racing. But you can't vilify Saez for riding dangerously and almost causing an incident that horse racing could never come back from, then say only that Tyler G rode a tremendous race.

My point is simply the folks that support the DQ simply want to focus on what they want to shine a light to, and nothing else. And I am not making Tyler G a villain at all. I am simply sticking to the opinion that this race is like no other run in this country. 20 horses (in this case 19), whatever conditions, and horses running further than they have ever run before, and for most will ever run again. Bumping and grinding for the most part for 10f. It's the nature of the beast known as the Kentucky Derby. I also don't think that anyone on the side of no DQ thinks Maximum Security didn't do anything. He clearly did. But all of the calls stewards make are "judgement" calls. My opinion is they didn't consider all of the factors contributing to Maximum Security's actions when making their judgement call. Which just happened to occur while our sport's biggest race was receiving the best ratings since 1990. And most, who barely have a clue in the first place, where left even more confused than when they turned their TV on.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You’re never right about anything so not sure why this would be any different.

Songbird won.

[Dahoss]

I’ve watched the races a few dozen times. I appreciate you explaining it as you see it but I don’t think you’re correct in your opinion of it.

I haven’t seen anyone vilify Saez. He did his best to correct what MS did. But it was very telling how he reacted when the objection came up and after he spoke to the stewards. He knew what had happened.

You can’t have rules for one race and different than others. Maybe this will lead to them capping the entries at 14. Who knows. But it doesn’t become Thunderdome because it’s the Derby.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Songbird won.

Yawn. Nice “hit” in the Derby.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You’re never right about anything so not sure why this would be any different.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yawn. Nice “hit” in the Derby.

Thanks. Didn’t deserve it, but like finding $1324 . Actually more because he wouldn’t have paid $55.60 to place if they left the winner up.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Thanks. Didn’t deserve it, but like finding $1324 . Actually more because he wouldn’t have paid $55.60 to place if they left the winner up.

If you really did bet the horse (which I doubt), wouldn’t it be like finding $1890? Since you know...you “had” $20 win/place?

[Alabama Stakes]

No because he ran second, thus I would get paid for the place bet. It would have paid less than $55.60 to place because the winner was 4-1.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If you really did bet the horse (which I doubt), wouldn’t it be like finding $1890? Since you know...you “had” $20 win/place?

Why would I lie. I post losing tickets all the time.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Why would I lie. I post losing tickets all the time.

Why do you lie and make stuff up all the time? That’s who you are man.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yes he is blameless. Again, I’m not sure how people can look at a video and see things that just aren’t there.

Your right. I don't see the #1 horses front legs in between the #7 horses legs even though it is as clear as day..... it must be the weed....

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by richard burch

Your right. I don't see the #1 horses front legs in between the #7 horses legs even though it is as clear as day..... it must be the weed....

Your assertion is based on a single view (i.e, a side view from a wide angle).

If you watch the race at the same point from the angle provided by NBC explaining the DQ (an oblique, partially overhead view in close up), you'd see that there was no contact prior to Maximum Security veering out.

[richard burch]

Well I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on this one.

On to the Preakness.

5/18 (PIM): PREAKNESS STAKES

1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione)
2. Improbable (Baffert/Smith)
3. Laughing Fox (Asmussen/Vasquez)
4. Mr. Money (Calhoun/G. Saez)
5. Anothertwistafate (Wright/TBA)
6. Owendale (Cox/Geroux)
7. Alwaysmining (Rubley/Centeno)
8. Signalman (McPeek/B. Hernandez)
9. Bourbon War (Hennig/I. Ortiz)
10. Bodexpress (A. Delgado/Landeros)
11. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimental)