Gotta love Watchmaker....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just posted the same thing. I don't know anything about breeding but I too am confused by this.

I think at this point I'm supposed to say "Jinx"

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is all good and fine but it appears then that NoBiz has then already established himself as a freak in this case.

He has the chance to be better than his sire...for sure....I like the horse..let me make that clear. But, I still think Scat Daddy is better...I just do....they are both very good though...NLS did gain my respect to a degree...I am just mad that Scat Daddy, who I think was the best horse, isn't getting any respect...REMEMBER, HE DID WIN THE RACE....its almost like the media always has an agenda...just my opinion...I've followed Mike for a while and I think I have a feel for his style.....

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not a result oriented guy, Joel, and objectively I think NoBiz ran the best race Saturday. I've made a lot of money in my life at the racetrack betting on horses that lost races but ran much better than their results would indicate. This, in fact, is the basic job of a horseplayer.

I understand you have liked Scat Daddy for quite a while, as has the barn, and that's great and I can certainly understand how enjoyable it must be for you to see him doing well. However, I would hardly say he isn't getting the respect he deserves simply because someone analyzed the Champagne and felt NoBiz ran the best race. That doesn't take away from Scat Daddy's good performance, it is just once again is one man's opinion of the race.

I'm guessing NoBiz's connections would be extremely excited at the prospect of him being even as good as Albert the Great who was most certainly an excellent racehorse with the career accomplishments to prove it.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, I don't know much about breeding, and you obviously know a ton more than me, but isn't this Albert the Great's second crop? How reliable can statistics be at this point especially concerning the " upside " of his foals?

It is how I feel about his breeding...not so much about his produce record...again, it is a theory that has worked for me and put me on a lot of real racehorses at an early stage (Bernardini) and taken me off a lot of race horses at an early stage...far more than I can list...you use what works for you...everyone in this game builds convictions and that is one of mine..

Put it this way, I'm a breeder and I wouldn't breed to Albert the Great....does that mean he sucks?..No...just my convictions...

..his yearlings I've seen are actually not all that bad in the flesh, but then again, Unaccounted For's yearlings also looked good in the flesh......

[Rupert Pupkin]

I must be blind because I thought the horse got a great trip. He hugged the rail the entire race, he swung out two-wide at the head of the lane and he got run down fairly easily by a horse who went three-wide all the way around the turn. I think Scat Daddy was much the best.

If every horse I bet got the trip that NoBiz had, I would be very happy. How often is a come-from-behinder able to hug the rail like that and have such a huge gap open up on the rail in the middle of the turn? It doesn't happen very often. That ground saving trip more than made up for the sluggish start that he had. Overall, I think he had a great trip. I think the best horse clearly won.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I must be blind because I thought the horse got a great trip. He hugged the rail the entire race, he swung out two-wide at the head of the line and he got run down fairly easily by a horse who went three-wide all the way around the turn. I think Scat Daddy was much the best.

If every horse I bet got the trip that NoBiz had, I would be very happy. How often is a come-from-behinder able to hug the rail like that and have such a huge gap open up on the rail in the middle of the turn? It doesn't happen very often. That ground saving trip more than made up for the sluggish start that he had. Overall, I think he had a great trip. I think the best horse clearly won.

I couldn't agree more....I'm not saying he had a 'perfect' trip, but he ceratinly had as good a trip as the winner IMO, and I think the winner won far easier than the final margin based on the greeness I saw the final sixteenth.....

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

...it is obvious who he lost his money on at 8-5 in the Champagne

http://www.drf.com/news/article/79671.html

Ladies and gentleman, our winner Mr Joel Cunningham...

This is typical Watchmaker. Runs us up and down about how untouchable his choice is (in this case No Biz), who gets bet down to overwhelming favorite. Then moans that the star may not have been the winner (Scat Daddy). If No Biz had won, Mikey would have been crowning him BC Juvy champ already. Typical Watchmaker, beats his drum so loud and then when the tap goes faint, he changes his tune. But if he's right, we would not have heard the end of it...EVER.

I'll say it again, 5-2 on Scat Daddy was borderline overlay of the year, and was easy pickens if you were paying attention

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Ladies and gentleman, our winner Mr Joel Cunningham...

This is typical Watchmaker. Runs us up and down about how untouchable his choice is (in this case No Biz), who gets bet down to overwhelming favorite. Then moans that the star may not have been the winner (Scat Daddy). If No Biz had won, Mikey would have been crowning him BC Juvy champ already. Typical Watchmaker, beats his drum so loud and then when the tap goes faint, he changes his tune. But if he's right, we would not have heard the end of it...EVER.

I'll say it again, 5-2 on Scat Daddy was borderline overlay of the year, and was easy pickens if you were paying attention

No, you are the winner, SS.....ding, ding, ding

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Ladies and gentleman, our winner Mr Joel Cunningham...

This is typical Watchmaker. Runs us up and down about how untouchable his choice is (in this case No Biz), who gets bet down to overwhelming favorite. Then moans that the star may not have been the winner (Scat Daddy). If No Biz had won, Mikey would have been crowning him BC Juvy champ already. Typical Watchmaker, beats his drum so loud and then when the tap goes faint, he changes his tune. But if he's right, we would not have heard the end of it...EVER.

I'll say it again, 5-2 on Scat Daddy was borderline overlay of the year, and was easy pickens if you were paying attention

I agree with you. I would be willing to make a large wager that Watchmaker bet NoBiz.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I agree with you. I would be willing to make a large wager that Watchmaker bet NoBiz.

And that would make his analysis of the race null and void?

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So getting shut off at the start and losing a few lengths is a "great trip".

His bad break is overrated. IMO...go back and watch it...Scat had a worse break in his debut and in the Sanford IMO....

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

For a 8-5 favorite to get beat and then an article to be written about him headlined "You can pin a star on this colt's stall" is a tad ridiculous to me....

Apparentally, he was supposed to win by his odds and he didn't....he had no real excuse IMO....hell, Scat Daddy had worse journeys in the Sanford and Hopeful IMO and nobody came out and wrote excuses about his trip....the way I look at it, Nobiz saved a lot of ground, while Scat Daddy raced far wider and moved far wider....and Scat Daddy still flew by him with plenty left in the tank while racing green.....

I smell a wagering-induced article...<sniff, sniff>

You are so unbelievably biased, it's laughable. What the hell difference does it make if the public overbet him as to whether this horse is a star or not? So stars never get beaten at short odds? He was overbet. You already stated this. He shouldn't have been 8/5. What the **** does that have to do with the horse's talent?

You know what's a "tad ridiculous" to ME? The fact that your horse is, according to you, still "very green" in his fourth start, three weeks from his biggest race of the year, and you interpret that as a positive sign. THAT'S ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

f every horse I bet got the trip that NoBiz had, I would be very happy. How often is a come-from-behinder able to hug the rail like that and have such a huge gap open up on the rail in the middle of the turn? It doesn't happen very often. That ground saving trip more than made up for the sluggish start that he had. Overall, I think he had a great trip. I think the best horse clearly won.

Oh yes, he's a "come-from-behinder," for sure. This characterization is based on what, exactly? He broke his maiden from within two lengths of the lead BECAUSE TAGG TOLD CORNELIO NOT TO GO TO THE LEAD, then he gets shut off at the break of this race and starts out in ninth, and now he's a "come-from-behinder." Right.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And that would make his analysis of the race null and void?

It would at least provide a serious conflict of interest....I read the article and seriously disagreed with much of what he thinks he saw....Your perception gets a little derailed when you are nervously holding a losing ticket on a false favorite you took a ridiculous 8-5 on off of a win over Bullara - a Pletcher colt who I watched at CD this summer and will likely be in for maiden claiming $50K very shortly....

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So getting shut off at the start and losing a few lengths is a "great trip".

As I said, his ground-saving trip more than made up for his losing a couple of lengths at the start.

It would be one thing if he broke slow and was flying late but couldn't catch the winner. But that's not what happened. He had the lead and got run down. I don't see any way that he was the best horse. If he and SD reversed trips, SD still wins the race easily. SD probably wins the race even easier if they reverse trips.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So getting shut off at the start and losing a few lengths is a "great trip".

The start was real bad, but it wasn't the only problem. He got back into the action a little too quicky and had to be checked for some time for lack of room. being down on the inside I don't think was the best position for this big colt.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Gee, wonder who you bet. I'll be sure to pay more attention for those 5-2 overlays. Take a look at my link to Mr. Cunningham's post race analysis of the Hopeful and tell me there aren't striking similarities there.

No, the difference is that I MADE money on Circular Quay winning because he was coupled with Scat Daddy that day.....CLEARLY different motive than Watchmaker's story and situation...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

It would at least provide a serious conflict of interest....I read the article and seriously disagreed with much of what he thinks he saw....Your perception gets a little derailed when you are nervously holding a losing ticket on a false favorite you took a ridiculous 8-5 on off of a win over Bullara - a Pletcher colt who I watched at CD this summer and will likely be in for maiden claiming $50K very shortly....

By the same token then everything you are saying about Scat Daddy represents a serious conflict of interest.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As I said, his ground-saving trip more than made up for his losing a couple of lengths at the start.

It would be one thing if he broke slow and was flying late but couldn't catch the winner. But that's not what happened. He had the lead and got run down. I don't see any way that he was the best horse. If he and SD reversed trips, SD still wins the race easily. SD probably wins the race even easier if they reverse trips.

Agreed....................

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You are so unbelievably biased, it's laughable. What the hell difference does it make if the public overbet him as to whether this horse is a star or not? So stars never get beaten at short odds? He was overbet. You already stated this. He shouldn't have been 8/5. What the **** does that have to do with the horse's talent?

You know what's a "tad ridiculous" to ME? The fact that your horse is, according to you, still "very green" in his fourth start, three weeks from his biggest race of the year, and you interpret that as a positive sign. THAT'S ridiculous.



Oh yes, he's a "come-from-behinder," for sure. This characterization is based on what, exactly? He broke his maiden from within two lengths of the lead BECAUSE TAGG TOLD CORNELIO NOT TO GO TO THE LEAD, then he gets shut off at the break of this race and starts out in ninth, and now he's a "come-from-behinder." Right.

He is a come-from-behinder. He doesn't have sprint speed. That's why he made his debut in a one mile race. This horse is clearly a router. Running in a one-turn race against horses with sprint-speed, I would certainly call him a come-from-behinder. He was running against horses with :44 and change speed. I don't think they wanted to be up there going head and head with the Lukas horse any way.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You are so unbelievably biased, it's laughable. What the hell difference does it make if the public overbet him as to whether this horse is a star or not? So stars never get beaten at short odds? He was overbet. You already stated this. He shouldn't have been 8/5. What the **** does that have to do with the horse's talent?

Plenty actually. People bet him down to that level based on perceived "talent" up to and not including his pedigree, trainer, works, races, who he raced, etc. Based on that, people set this talent level of this horse at 8-5 over a horse who has more talent overall in Scat Daddy.

No Biz will probably be a decent horse, I dont think many people dispute that notion. Stars do get beaten at 8-5. Stars win at 5-2 as well. Fact of the matter is, we are dealing with babies and as soon as they are "stars" they are long forgotten sometimes. Not saying this will happen to either of them, but who the hell knows?

Also, the wagering level settled on by the public DOES represent the star quality of a horse. In fact, it makes a great point. We are WAY too quick to appoint stardom on these animals. For weeks now, since No Biz won his maiden, he has been the next star...well as is the situation many teams, the hype doesnt match up, at least right now. Who knows, maybe it will (personally, I say no). Looking at the facts, No Biz beat a horse from Pletcher's barn, maybe D Wayne, not 100% sure (and its too late to look up) who will probably be toiling in the fall mid level claimers at Churchill. That doesnt present star to me.

But, it does to some...and hell, I hope it does more often, and then my horse sits at 5-2 and is the clear class of the race. *Cash register sound*

Good arguments though.