Travers Field (the other 5 horses)

[miraja2]

If you are looking for a horse to fill out the trifecta, or if for some reason you have gone insane and want to try to beat BOTH of the big favorites, lets talk about the other 5 horses in the race.

#1 - Hesanoldsalt - In 5 stakes races he has never been within 6 lengths of the lead at the finish. He has never run a triple digit beyer figure. The one time he met Bluegrass Cat, that horse beat him by over 14 lengths. Toss.

#2 - Minister's Bid - My top choice for the show and the one with the biggest chance to beat one of the big 2. His last race was his debut going 2 turns and it was on an off track which he didn't seem to like. Pedigree suggests he may like 10f and with a dry track he could be a threat.

#3 - Dr. Pleasure - By Thunder Gulch which suggests that 10f should not be a problem but he has no business in this race. His connections seem to like to take big shots with this horse (they ran him in the BC last year) but he really hasn't earned it. He ran his best figure ever (by far) in the Jim Dandy and I look for him to bounce off an effort that still wasn't good enough to hit the board. Toss.

#4 - High Cotton - Most accomplished horse in the race outside of the big 2. He seems to be a colt who alternates between good and merely average performances. Out of an AP Indy mare so you would think he would like the distance but he seems to do his best work at 8.5f and under (like his sire Dixie Union). Should be on the lead but I think he will completely run out of gass in the stretch.

#6 - Kip Deville - If they lined these horses up and ran this race 100 times, this horse would never win and would not hit the board more than once or twice. Are they seriously running him in this race?


What do you guys think?

[LARHAGE]

I read Kip Deville may most likely scratch. I too like Ministers Bid for the upsetter, IF Bernardini doesn't run well, I personally think he jogs.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

I read Kip Deville may most likely scratch. I too like Ministers Bid for the upsetter, IF Bernardini doesn't run well, I personally think he jogs.

I don't think I like him more than BGC, but I do like him more than High Cotton, who seems to be the only other possible choice to hit the board. With the two big boys in the race, I suppose that something like a WP bet on Minister's Bid might be the value, but I would heavily favor the place. So if you are betting $50 WP on MB I'd bet something like $10 to win and $40 to place. Maybe one of the big boys won't fire, but I would be shocked if neither one of them ran their race.

[Thunder Gulch]

It's hard to make much of a case for any of these unless some external factor pops up. I guess a big bias, or some gooey off track would make it interesting, otherwise just sit back and watch to see if Bernandini receives his coronation or Bluegrass Cat steps to the next level.

[Sightseek]

I'm just hoping for High Cotton to beat Bluegrass Cat. Bernardini is the MAN. Classiest animal I've ever laid eyes on.

[avance2000]

i like high cotton & maybe even dr pleasure more than ministers bid. i don't see why you say high cotton alternates between good and bad races. outside of his performance @ oaklawn he has run well every time out and has looked very solid in his last 3. he has beaten better than minister's bid. i dont usually give a flying poop about pedigree but since you brought it up, his mommy was by ap indy so i don't see why he will fall apart in the stretch.
bluecat grass and narberdini might run by him but i don't think anyone else will.
if someone does it will probably be dr. p.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by avance2000

i like high cotton & maybe even dr pleasure more than ministers bid. i don't see why you say high cotton alternates between good and bad races. outside of his performance @ oaklawn he has run well every time out and has looked very solid in his last 3. he has beaten better than minister's bid. i dont usually give a flying poop about pedigree but since you brought it up, his mommy was by ap indy so i don't see why he will fall apart in the stretch.
bluecat grass and narberdini might run by him but i don't think anyone else will.
if someone does it will probably be dr. p.

Here are High Cotton's Beyer Speed Figs for this year in chronological order:
18-86-70-103-93-105. Notice how he alternates? Now I know Beyer #s are not very well respected on this board and I certainly don't swear by them, but I think they can be useful and to me they reveal a pattern for this horse. I know who his broodmare sire is, but to me it just doesn't look like he wants to go beyond 8.5.
The horse has certainly proved that he is a solid G3 caliber horse, but I just think MinBid is potentially better than that. As for your argument that Dr. Pleasure will beat Minister's Bid....just out of curiosity....what in the world are you basing THAT on?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Here are High Cotton's Beyer Speed Figs for this year in chronological order:
18-86-70-103-93-105. Notice how he alternates? Now I know Beyer #s are not very well respected on this board and I certainly don't swear by them, but I think they can be useful and to me they reveal a pattern for this horse. I know who his broodmare sire is, but to me it just doesn't look like he wants to go beyond 8.5.
The horse has certainly proved that he is a solid G3 caliber horse, but I just think MinBid is potentially better than that. As for your argument that Dr. Pleasure will beat Minister's Bid....just out of curiosity....what in the world are you basing THAT on?

I think the pace scenario could play into Dr. Pleasure's hooves better than Minister's Bid, doesn't mean he is necessarily a better horse. I wouldn't be surprised to see hesanoldsalt or Dr. Pleasure hit the board.