2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by pointman

I can only hope Secret Circle takes a lot of money, but with Bodemeister being named after Baffert's son, I am afraid the majority of Baffert lovers will end up there. Just wait until NBC does a heartwarming story on it Derby Day and watch Bode's odds drop.

Does a story running an hour leading up the race on NBC really make any impact on the handle?

Anyone at the track or an OTB probably isn't watching and/or has already made up their minds on who to bet.

Anyone at home watching that would be swayed by that kind of story, probably doesn't have an AWD account or has already given their money/bet to someone at the track. I think it's irrelevant.

[3kings]

According to Jay Privman tweet, Coolmore says Wrote officially out of Derby.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by justindew

Secret Circle will be 25-1 or higher.

My point is simply that Secret Circle has no chance of winning the Derby so any money that is bet on him consequently inflates the odds on the horses that actually do have a chance. Considering that he is trained by a trainer that the public is more familiar than most, he will undoubtedly take more stupid money than some horses from lesser known connections that actually have a chance.

[NTamm1215]

According to Churchill Downs PR, Liaison is shipping to CD. Baffert is apparently going to start he and Secret Circle in an effort to help his chances of bookending the field.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

According to Churchill Downs PR, Liaison is shipping to CD. Baffert is apparently going to start he and Secret Circle in an effort to help his chances of bookending the field.

With the race shaping up to be pretty wide open, I"ll take as many auto tosses as possible (Liason). I probably wouldn't use Secret Circle either, but his ability to hit the board is far greater than Liason.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Does a story running an hour leading up the race on NBC really make any impact on the handle?

Anyone at the track or an OTB probably isn't watching and/or has already made up their minds on who to bet.

Anyone at home watching that would be swayed by that kind of story, probably doesn't have an AWD account or has already given their money/bet to someone at the track. I think it's irrelevant.

If I remember correctly, NBC runs these stories all day long. They also promote these stories running up to the Derby. Maybe I am wrong, but I have to believe that these stories they promote do have an impact on where stupid money is bet.

Let's face it, the Derby more than any race has people who bet money on it that have no knowledge of betting horses, most of whom would be better off taking a match to their money instead of going to the windows.

Hanson will take money from people who bet on the pretty horsey, Take Charge Indy will take money from people who blindly bet Borel in the Derby under the belief that he wins virtually every Derby, Bodemeister will take money because the horse is named after Baffert's son, Dullahan will have the people who now believe that the turf horse to Derby (i.e. Animal Kingdom) route is the new way to win, etc.

Maybe I see it a bit differntly since I live in Manhattan and OTB's (before they were closed) were just a walk down the street, but before ADW's, I would see people pouring in to bet the Derby all day long, most of whom would not be caught dead in an OTB other than the Derby. The closer it got to the race, the longer the lines would get to bet.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

With the race shaping up to be pretty wide open, I"ll take as many auto tosses as possible (Liason). I probably wouldn't use Secret Circle either, but his ability to hit the board is far greater than Liason.

I don't think either has a chance to hit the board, but Liason might actually have a better chance to suck up into something than Secret Circle considering their running styles and that there is no way Secret Circle wants 1 1/4 miles.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

According to Churchill Downs PR, Liaison is shipping to CD. Baffert is apparently going to start he and Secret Circle in an effort to help his chances of bookending the field.

perhaps liason will end up in the trial? i saw this morning that all three of his would share a plane ride up there....but who knows? we all know about his entering dantbgm a few years ago, but with ae's, that would be a waste.

maybe he's hoping they'll all 'dapple out'??

[tjfla]

They said Liaison will be shipping and they will determine if he goes on how he trains. Ill take him and SC both in the Derby-2 Auto Tosses for me!!

The Lexington might have a horse in the Derby still- Stirred Up(96,000)Morgan's Guerilla(100,000) News Pending(80,000),and Golden Ticket(70,000) are mention as MAYBE by drf.com. A Win by any of them would give them earnings which would move them just behind Reveron

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Danzig

perhaps liason will end up in the trial? i saw this morning that all three of his would share a plane ride up there....but who knows? we all know about his entering dantbgm a few years ago, but with ae's, that would be a waste.

maybe he's hoping they'll all 'dapple out'??

I think they are going to run Liaison in the Derby. Baffert for at least two months has been saying that he doesn't like Santa Anita, so I'm guessing that if he trains well at all at CD, he's going to run him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think they are going to run Liaison in the Derby. Baffert for at least two months has been saying that he doesn't like Santa Anita, so I'm guessing that if he trains well at all at CD, he's going to run him.

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?

Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by pointman

If I remember correctly, NBC runs these stories all day long. They also promote these stories running up to the Derby. Maybe I am wrong, but I have to believe that these stories they promote do have an impact on where stupid money is bet.

Let's face it, the Derby more than any race has people who bet money on it that have no knowledge of betting horses, most of whom would be better off taking a match to their money instead of going to the windows.

Hanson will take money from people who bet on the pretty horsey, Take Charge Indy will take money from people who blindly bet Borel in the Derby under the belief that he wins virtually every Derby, Bodemeister will take money because the horse is named after Baffert's son, Dullahan will have the people who now believe that the turf horse to Derby (i.e. Animal Kingdom) route is the new way to win, etc.

Maybe I see it a bit differntly since I live in Manhattan and OTB's (before they were closed) were just a walk down the street, but before ADW's, I would see people pouring in to bet the Derby all day long, most of whom would not be caught dead in an OTB other than the Derby. The closer it got to the race, the longer the lines would get to bet.

Ya its the same every year

Hansen will take money since he won the Juvy,he is white and they will do 5 stories on Dr.Crazy. TCI will take the Borel money,Mark Valeski will take the Rosie cash ,Bodemeister cause of Bob and his son plus heart attack and then there is the Went The Day Well who will take cash cause of the AK angle.

Only 1 question? Who will be this year's Wise Guy Horse???

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?

Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

Baffert said Liaison hated the track from Day 1 but he saw it as the horse was getting work in. I think he will run in the Derby but they keep saying they wanna see how he trains on it

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?

Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

Not to mention that he broke his maiden at Santa Anita. Blaming the track is what you do when your horse has peaked and is now going the wrong direction.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?

Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

Yeah.

As to him running at SA, I'm guessing it's because he was already assured a spot in the Ky Derby and didn't need to ship him.

He did run better at HP, so who knows.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If he didn't like Santa Anita, why did Bob keep running him there?Liaison is slow. That's his real problem.

[tector]

You are looking at a race that could easily fall to pieces (it is too early to tell, of course). With that scenario possible, why would Baffert rule out a horse that could still be breathing after a 1.25? Have you seen some of the recent winners of this race? Does Liason's form look much worse than Mine That Bird's did? What is he supposed to do if the owners want to go?

[Mike]

Originally Posted by tjfla

They said Liaison will be shipping and they will determine if he goes on how he trains. Ill take him and SC both in the Derby-2 Auto Tosses for me!!

The Lexington might have a horse in the Derby still- Stirred Up(96,000)Morgan's Guerilla(100,000) News Pending(80,000),and Golden Ticket(70,000) are mention as MAYBE by drf.com. A Win by any of them would give them earnings which would move them just behind Reveron

A win by Morgan's Guerilla would put him in a tie with Reveron. What's the tie breaking procedure for the last spot?

[Mike]

In the case of a tie for the final entry position or the determination of all remaining starters, preference is given to horses that accumulated the highest earnings in non-restricted stakes races. If a tie still remains, the final spots in the starting gate will be determined by lot or a “shake.”

Reveron wins the tie breaker easily over Morgan

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pointman

I don't think either has a chance to hit the board, but Liason might actually have a better chance to suck up into something than Secret Circle considering their running styles and that there is no way Secret Circle wants 1 1/4 miles.

Running styles can change.

Mine That Bird and Super Saver both had been pressing paces and fading sharper through the stretch with the exact same running style as Secret Circle. They basically had the exact same running style as Secret Circle, but both were wildly inferior horses.

Borel simply took both of them way back and made one late run.

The good horses in Secret Circle's family are all deep closing routers.

If they do run him in the Kentucky Derby, they should take him well off the pace. On speed figures, he fits with every horse in the race not named Bodemeister. On Ragozin's he's probably the second fastest horse in this race... and his Arkansas Derby was better than older males in the OP Handicap because of weight and ground loss.

Liason has no chance of getting anything.