Zenyatta's late pace figs

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Late pace fig Zenyatt's race got - plus how much ground she closed into it.

'10 BC Classic 87 (14L back)
'10 Lady's Secret 130 (3.25L back)
'10 Clement Hirsch 141 (3L back)
'10 Vanity 115 (6L back)
'10 Apple Blossom 99 (3.5L back)
'10 Santa Margarita 121 (10L back)
'09 BC Classic 124 (6.75L back)
'09 Lady's Secret 160 (4.5L back)
'09 Clement Hirsch 147 (6.5L back)
'09 Vanity 110 (5.5L back)

'08 Ladies Classic 145 (7.5L back)
'08 Apple Blossom 107 (8L back)


The 2009 Lady's Secret was the race that worst set-up for her. Possibly her best performance ever that day. The 2010 Breeders Cup Classic was the race that setup best for her ... as the race only got an 87 late pace figure. Every one else - other than Blame and Fly Down somewhat - were all quitting badly after 6fs.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

These are Zenyatta's correct late pace figs.

'10 BC Classic 133
'10 Lady's Secret 148
'10 Clement Hirsch 159
'10 Vanity 145
'10 Apple Blossom 117
'10 Santa Margarita 171
'09 BC Classic 150
'09 Lady's Secret 186
'09 Clement Hirsch 187
'09 Vanity 137

'08 Ladies Classic 181
'08 Apple Blossom 155


Three times she ran in the 180's ... all on synthetic and all in victory. Her best dirt number was a 155. Her best cushion track number was a 148. In other words - she didn't finish quite as strongly on dirt or cushion - because she ran a little faster than usual through the early parts of those races.

[blackthroatedwind]

Hater.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In other words - she didn't finish quite as strongly on dirt or cushion - because she ran a little faster than usual through the early parts of those races.

Did she actually run faster early in the BCC last year than she typically had been? Visually it looked like she was running about the same but because it was dirt, she was much farther back than she ever was in her synthetic races.
Either way, the race certainly set up perfectly for her....a seemingly obvious point that her many apologists somehow overlooked.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Did she actually run faster early in the BCC last year than she typically had been? Visually it looked like she was running about the same

The pace call is 6f - so yes - she ran faster in the BC Classic to that point of the race than she typically had been running.

She basically ran the first furlong or two like she would in any of her synthetic races - but Mike Smith already started to ask her by the time she got to the first turn.

Denman gave the inevitable 'Zenyatta is having to be ridden along a little' call - I think at like the midway point of the first turn. Had she run to her prior races - she would have been about 25 lengths off the pace with four furlongs to go. Had Smith let that happen ... instead of a 133 late pace figure - she might have blitzed late with something like her 155 she ran in the '08 Apple Blossom.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

What most impressed me about her was....consistency. She fired every time.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin's late pace figures:

142 4th place finish in BC Classic
135 Jockey Club Gold Cup
116 Woodward
140 Foster
137 BC Classic win
119 Jockey Club Gold Cup win over Lawyer Ron

For a closing sprinter I looked at Midnight Lute

157 BC Sprint win over Fatal Bullet on synthetic
133 BC Sprint win in mud
140 Forego win that got 124 Beyer

These late pace figs by horse are kind of pointless - because what happens leading into the far turn will dictate them in a lot of ways. Top class One-way speed horses can run 140's one race when they get it very easy - and 0's or negative stuff if they get burned up in a duel.

I don't even bother to calculate them by horse - just started doing it by race though - and I think it makes watching the race so much better. Easy to forgive a closer who hangs bad with no excuse in a race that gets a huge late pace number.

[Indian Charlie]

Do Kotashaan.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't do turf racing. I have a par half mile for 80 - a par 6fs for 80 - and a par final time for 80 and I tell if the pace is fast that way.

The run-up and position of the rails really screw them up. When the rails are out 72 feet and the run-up is 150 feet at GP - you'll see them go 20 and change for 5f on turf and the pace will hold up. Make the run-up like 15 feet and they'll go like 21.60 and hit a wall.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The pace call is 6f - so yes - she ran faster in the BC Classic to that point of the race than she typically had been running.

She basically ran the first furlong or two like she would in any of her synthetic races - but Mike Smith already started to ask her by the time she got to the first turn.

Denman gave the inevitable 'Zenyatta is having to be ridden along a little' call - I think at like the midway point of the first turn. Had she run to her prior races - she would have been about 25 lengths off the pace with four furlongs to go. Had Smith let that happen ... instead of a 133 late pace figure - she might have blitzed late with something like her 155 she ran in the '08 Apple Blossom.

...maybe, dont think was as good as a 6 yr. old.