Thank You Mine That Bird

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What bias....one that helped overmatched horses?

I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by golfer

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

Kind of the way the old Keeneland played.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I guess I was asking WTF you were talking about, implying that I Want Revenge was scratched for a reason other than an injury.

what are you even talking about?
I Want Revenge was scratched. He didn't run.
you are way off in a different ballpark

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by byalip

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

Well anyone with a realistic perception and a knowledge of how set ups, and race-shapes affect outcomes, can see that Borel won that race.

The problem with changing your handicapping strategy to revolve around jockeys is that this was one of the all-time greatest jockey influenced examples in the history of stakes races. The vast majority of races have much less if any influence from jockeys.

I think jockeys do have strengths and weaknesses and that it is illogical to preach race shapes and set ups and ignore jockeys altogether, but they don't deserve more than a small consideration.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Well anyone with a realistic perception and a knowledge of how set ups, and race-shapes affect outcomes, can see that Borel won that race.
The problem with changing your handicapping strategy to revolve around jockeys is that this was one of the all-time greatest jockey influenced examples in the history of stakes races. The vast majority of races have much less if any influence from jockeys.

I think jockeys do have strengths and weaknesses and that it is illogical to preach race shapes and set ups and ignore jockeys altogether, but they don't deserve more than a small consideration.

It was a great trip no doubt and the ride was probably up there in greatest in derby history.

But does the horse get any credit? Sure...he freaked on a rail favoring sloppy track but he still freaked. That horse was much the best yesterday and it seemed to my eye that he wins with just an average trip and not the amazing one that he got. No?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

It was a great trip no doubt and the ride was probably up there in greatest in derby history.

But does the horse get any credit? Sure...he freaked on a rail favoring sloppy track but he still freaked. That horse was much the best yesterday and it seemed to my eye that he wins with just an average trip and not the amazing one that he got. No?

No, he didn't freak.
With an Average trip he could have gotten anywhere from 10th- 4th

[CSC]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

Maybe I missed something in the story along the way, but I don't understand why brisnet.com had Richard Mandella
listed as the trainer of Mine That Bird the day prior to the post position draw.

Here's the link, in case it still works:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...es/dby4-23.pdf

This horse is almost a complete unknown, it would be interesting to see if it was an Owner's decision to change Trainer's or Mandella's decision to not train him any further. Numbers aside, he was good in Canada last year, though not much to hang your hat on if you were a backer of the horse. Certainly not as low as 50-1.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by golfer

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

The winner got a 105 Beyer. If a healthy Quality Road and a healthy I Want Revenge had shown up, DrugS would have cashed his exacta, and only been whining that an impossible horse sucked up for third to cost him the tri and super.

The winner saved us from the most mediocre result in, at least, modern Derby history. But, relatively speaking, he still didn't run THAT well. He looked visually impressive, no doubt, but in many ways it was an illusion.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

No, he didn't freak.
With an Average trip he could have gotten anywhere from 10th- 4th

Well i will have to watch it again. Maybe i missed something. Looked to me like a horse won the derby yesterday by open lengths and it looked to me like he ran the best race of his life by at least 20 beyer points...but he didnt freak.

And you say with an average trip that he could have been...10th?

[sdjcom]

turn the page next race!!

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by 3kings

How was your price on Fresian Fire? All you did was say how your price was getting ruined by all the scratches, now your taking shots at people who supported POTN. What did FF pay for 16th? or 18th?

The race was an anamoly.

Calvin Borel took a risky gamble and it worked out into a hall of fame ride.
Friesan Fire was injured out of the gate and had a rough trip.

Friesan Fire's price sucked with underlays Pamplemousse, Quality Road and IWR all defecting, but obviously your post was meant to be a rhetorical snide remark, and you probably care/know little about a price.

Glad you liked the obvious underlay POTN, that pretty much says all that needs to be said about your horseplaying acumen.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

Still waiting to hear what your derby bets were......

He bet on logical horses based on years of acute study of an imperfect game where wildstock and little people are the context of the wagering event. The derby and BC are perhaps the best wagering days of the year as so much money is wagered on hopefuless chances because they are either gray, blue , purple or look like aunt sue..

See you around BC when you will post about some other trillion to 1 shot that you thought was special..

And people wonder why narcotics are popular?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Agree wholeheartedly with Blackthroatedwind. If Mine That Bird DOES NOT win the race, the final time would have been in the 2:03.40 range - awful.

I'm absolutely baffled at how the track remained sloppy the entire day. There was no rain over the eight hour period from opening changes to the Derby...and it still looked like there was standing water on the track. Compared to last year - even though there was sun on Saturday, there was a TON of rain on Friday, and all through the night, and the track was fast by mid-card.

This will be debated for weeks no doubt, did 18 horses not show up or is it more logical to assume that 1 horse perhaps freaked in the race. Atleast in the case of Giacomo the pace and margin of the win is more readily explainable. Given there was no other route race to compare the final time with, I'm not going to come to any conclusions too quickly.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Well i will have to watch it again. Maybe i missed something. Looked to me like a horse won the derby yesterday by open lengths and it looked to me like he ran the best race of his life by at least 20 beyer points...but he didnt freak.

And you say with an average trip that he could have been...10th?

be open to learning something.

Borel kept his horse way back while the others sprinted out on a sloppy track. Then he gambled that he could slide along the rail.

He had a HUGE advantage in both Race Set-Up , and in Ground Loss

The horse certainly didn't run any better than musket man or chocolate candy

[Danzig]

MTB is a one run closer. i'd think even if he came in sporting a 20 point higher previous beyer, he'd have gotten mostly ignored. one run closers typically don't do well in a full derby field. it all came together for him. pretty amazing really.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

They were just showing the "blimp shot" of the race on the local OTB show. As the field progressed down the backstretch, there were only three horses on the rail: Join in the Dance, who lasted a lot longer than expected; Hold Me Back, who made the only sustained middle move in the race; and Mine That Bird, who was advancing on the rail as the field approached the half mile pole. On the turn the only other horse that dropped down to the rail was Atomic Rain, a horse that even the rail could not assist.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

The race was an anamoly.

Calvin Borel took a risky gamble and it worked out into a hall of fame ride.
Friesan Fire was injured out of the gate and had a rough trip.

Friesan Fire's price sucked with underlays Pamplemousse, Quality Road and IWR all defecting, but obviously your post was meant to be a rhetorical snide remark, and you probably care/know little about a price.

Glad you liked the obvious underlay POTN, that pretty much says all that needs to be said about your horseplaying acumen.

I didn't play POTN, I understand a price and know that only a douche nozzle touts a horse for 2 weeks watches him run18th then says he had the impossible 50-1 shot but only could use him 3rd or 4th. But of course the race was an anomaly

The pace wasn't that fast

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Danzig

MTB is a one run closer. i'd think even if he came in sporting a 20 point higher previous beyer, he'd have gotten mostly ignored. one run closers typically don't do well in a full derby field. it all came together for him. pretty amazing really.

Thats what makes it even more amazing. He had never been a one run closer prior to this race. He had always been within 3 lengths of the lead by the halfway call in all of his races except his maiden...even in the BC race where he got thumped.