The Sheets

[treeman]

Hello I was wondering if anyone here used the sheets as a handicapping tool and if it pays for itself. Looked into it but it seems to be on the pricey side for me anyways.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by treeman

Hello I was wondering if anyone here used the sheets as a handicapping tool and if it pays for itself. Looked into it but it seems to be on the pricey side for me anyways.

The owners of Destin use them. And I believe partially own them.

[Alabama Stakes]

And the sheets say go to the derby fresh......

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by treeman

Hello I was wondering if anyone here used the sheets as a handicapping tool and if it pays for itself. Looked into it but it seems to be on the pricey side for me anyways.

tree..

First, there are 2 sheet methodology products, Ragozin & Thoro-Graph. Ragozin's were the first but Jerry Brown's Thoro-Graph has far surpassed them. Think of them as Hydrox and Oreo's.

In addition to providing consistently more accurate performance figures, Thoro-Graph adds layers of value-added statistics and trend info on sires and trainers. You can sometimes gain as much insight with these stats as you do the figures. The product (at $25/card, less with additional cards) easily pays for itself with the discovery of a vulnerable, overbet favorite or highly obscured contender. There is no single handicapping tool available that so readily and regularly makes seemingly impossible longshots apparent. I have used TG since 1995.

At their website you can learn how to use the sheets via the Race of the Week and reams of historical data (Redboard Room; Triple Crown/Breeders' Cup) as well as in their 'Ask the Experts' Forum. In addition, here's the link to our ongoing TG Xmas-New Year's Free Data conversation.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...ht=thoro-graph

Feel free to ask me or any of the players noted questions if you need help.

[treeman]

Thanks very much for the response to my question and will look into both of these papers and try to figure which one if any will work best for me. Do either of them let you no were they think the horse will run to in the start your handicapping for.

[philcski]

Agree with Steve... no, they are not cheap. But the data, used in concert with traditional PP's, far outweigh the cost. Every number is agonized over and that makes the cost well worth it.

I buy them if I'm going to play a serious amount of money.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

In addition to providing consistently more accurate performance figures,

How do you measure this? Do they pick more winners? Better ROI? By how much? Surely you have some data to back up such a blunt statement.

For the record, I'm not disagreeing. I have no idea. I have nothing to do with either of them professionally either. I had access to The Sheets when they were partnered with TimeformUS and didn't even look at them more than twice. I just always wonder what measure people use when proclaiming one set of figures betters better than others.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

How do you measure this? Do they pick more winners? Better ROI? By how much? Surely you have some data to back up such a blunt statement.

Picking more winners and ROI would be in the hands of the user(s).

Accuracy of the figures as measured by TG's Jerry Brown whose opinion I trust completely (no matter how biased).

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Picking more winners and ROI would be in the hands of the user(s).

Accuracy of the figures as measured by TG's Jerry Brown whose opinion I trust completely (no matter how biased).

OK, so no real standard, just the opinion of the creator of one of the two mentioned. That is fair.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, so no real standard, just the opinion of the creator of one of the two mentioned. That is fair.

I'd imagine the 'standard' is the same kind of parameters you most likely use when you monitor, and comment on relative accuracy, of other figure makers. So similarly, not an opinion.. perhaps conjecture or supposition are better words. But you can believe that Jerry is watching everything that's done there. Closely.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

They are not a tout sheet. They are just THE BEST DATA AVAILABLE. You still need to choose the horses and make the tickets. Simple.

[Thunder Gulch]

To each his own, but to almost completely brush aside pace considerations when creating "performance" figures is a big blind spot. Of course that puts it in the hands of handicappers to consider the race and how the figure was earned, which gets to one of the biggest positives of using Thorograph, and that's in that they aren't the most used figure by the masses. It's hard to get any value out of Beyers when they are under everyone's nose and anyone under 50 grew up learning to handicap with them. On the other hand, while Thorograph may not be in the hands of as many handicappers, the ones that use sheets tend to be sharper and play for more money than the guy who picks up a form on the way to his seat. Therefore, it's still difficult to find spots where other sheet players aren't driving the value out of a selection.

Bottom line IMO is that all figures have flaws, whether it be pace, ground loss, changing conditions...whatever. Some really smart people have and continue to make a one size fits all figure, and if even if it were possible, the parimutuel value would disappear when they hit mainstream.

[Secretriat34]

NUMBERS ...ARE JUST THAT - NUMBERS

DON'T MATTER WHO PROVIDES YOUR RAW DATA..

NUMBERS DONT LIE
BUT
YOU CAN LIE WITH NUMBERS

nothing accounts for the day of the race conditions except the mood of the animals themselves

does the 1 horse have a tooth ache,
did the three horse have a bee in his stall
did the 5 horse eat some bad hay
is the 4 horse intimidated by he 7

what happens on race day--- happens !

raw data does little except for identify the three of four with NO chance of being ITM

who is in the race today...
have they faced others in todays field ? what hapened then ?
has each of todays runners run at the track before ? what hapened ...did they win..if not were they in a box..

video and perfomance on todays track, along with repeat competitors have far more predictive power than digital analysis.

if the numbers gave out winners.it would be just that easy..
but..it isn't

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

tree..

First, there are 2 sheet methodology products, Ragozin & Thoro-Graph. Ragozin's were the first but Jerry Brown's Thoro-Graph has far surpassed them. Think of them as Hydrox and Oreo's.

In addition to providing consistently more accurate performance figures, Thoro-Graph adds layers of value-added statistics and trend info on sires and trainers. You can sometimes gain as much insight with these stats as you do the figures. The product (at $25/card, less with additional cards) easily pays for itself with the discovery of a vulnerable, overbet favorite or highly obscured contender. There is no single handicapping tool available that so readily and regularly makes seemingly impossible longshots apparent. I have used TG since 1995.

At their website you can learn how to use the sheets via the Race of the Week and reams of historical data (Redboard Room; Triple Crown/Breeders' Cup) as well as in their 'Ask the Experts' Forum. In addition, here's the link to our ongoing TG Xmas-New Year's Free Data conversation.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...ht=thoro-graph

Feel free to ask me or any of the players noted questions if you need help.

I have a few questions, since I only use DRF or Timeform ---

The TDN has posted the Thoro-graph sheet for the Derby Top 20: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/derby-top-20/

I saw where Destin made a huge jump in performance, which is why I gather that they opted to give him so much time between the TBD and the Derby, but can you show me an example of what is meant by figures pairing (or something like that)?

Would a horse's form cycle like Outwork be a positive form cycle or is that too much of a jump in form? What is considered a "safe" rise in form or is any rise in form negated by a layoff?

Thanks!

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

NUMBERS ...ARE JUST THAT - NUMBERS

DON'T MATTER WHO PROVIDES YOUR RAW DATA..

NUMBERS DONT LIE
BUT
YOU CAN LIE WITH NUMBERS

nothing accounts for the day of the race conditions except the mood of the animals themselves

does the 1 horse have a tooth ache,
did the three horse have a bee in his stall
did the 5 horse eat some bad hay
is the 4 horse intimidated by he 7

what happens on race day--- happens !

raw data does little except for identify the three of four with NO chance of being ITM

who is in the race today...
have they faced others in todays field ? what hapened then ?
has each of todays runners run at the track before ? what hapened ...did they win..if not were they in a box..

video and perfomance on todays track, along with repeat competitors have far more predictive power than digital analysis.

if the numbers gave out winners.it would be just that easy..
but..it isn't

Did you ever see The Wolf of Wall Street?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I have a few questions, since I only use DRF or Timeform ---

The TDN has posted the Thoro-graph sheet for the Derby Top 20: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/derby-top-20/

I saw where Destin made a huge jump in performance, which is why I gather that they opted to give him so much time between the TBD and the Derby, but can you show me an example of what is meant by figures pairing (or something like that)?

Would a horse's form cycle like Outwork be a positive form cycle or is that too much of a jump in form? What is considered a "safe" rise in form or is any rise in form negated by a layoff? Thanks!

Sighty..

Yes.. Destin took the time post-Tampa because Twin Creeks owner Steve Davison, who bought the Ragozin business a couple years ago, believes in time off after significant forward moves. This is a little extreme though in terms of having a horse stretch from 8.5f to 10f after a 10 week layoff.

A good example of pairing up is on Gun Runner's form. He debuted with a 7 in the CD MDN win and paired it up twice with another 7 in the KEE ALW and 6.5 in the KY JC. He made a very healthy forward move in his first start at 3 to a 5.5 in the Risen Star and paired up with a 5 in the LA Derby. (A pair up is performance within a point in either direction). He is poised in a textbook pattern for a 3yo for a forward move in the Derby. The question is can it be enough of an improvement to win or contend?

Outwork is a perfect example of a horse that Thoro-Graph users (and management) is going to like where the general betting public's opinion is mixed (or negative). The forward move from the Sam Davis (6.75) to Tampa Bay Derby (2.75) is a significant one, but he backed that improvement up with the 1.5 in the Wood. To that end, as a lightly raced horse, he's still on the improve.

TG likes horses that have yet to regress on the theory that they improve on a range before they plateau (or until the stress of the efforts cause them to move backwards for a spell until they recover). An example of a horse that already has done a lot of developing is Suddenbreakingnews. He's gone from the turf debut 15.75 and dirt second start 14, down through 11's, 9.5/Springboard, 3/Southwest, 4.25/Rebel, 1.25/AR Derby.

This is a horse who has almost never gone backwards as even the Rebel has a traffic issue to consider. The question TG players have to answer with him is can he run the race he did in the AR Derby (or even improve) or is this a spot where all the progress (and 3 week turnaround) catch up with him? In TG parlance, you say "Is a major contender for a big piece with a pair up, win candidate with any improvement, bred top and bottom for the Classic trip, will be a big price" and most likely use him.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Sighty..

Yes.. Destin took the time post-Tampa because Twin Creeks owner Steve Davison, who bought the Ragozin business a couple years ago, believes in time off after significant forward moves. This is a little extreme though in terms of having a horse stretch from 8.5f to 10f after a 10 week layoff.

A good example of pairing up is on Gun Runner's form. He debuted with a 7 in the CD MDN win and paired it up twice with another 7 in the KEE ALW and 6.5 in the KY JC. He made a very healthy forward move in his first start at 3 to a 5.5 in the Risen Star and paired up with a 5 in the LA Derby. (A pair up is performance within a point in either direction). He is poised in a textbook pattern for a 3yo for a forward move in the Derby. The question is can it be enough of an improvement to win or contend?

Outwork is a perfect example of a horse that Thoro-Graph users (and management) is going to like where the general betting public's opinion is mixed (or negative). The forward move from the Sam Davis (6.75) to Tampa Bay Derby (2.75) is a significant one, but he backed that improvement up with the 1.5 in the Wood. To that end, as a lightly raced horse, he's still on the improve.

TG likes horses that have yet to regress on the theory that they improve on a range before they plateau (or until the stress of the efforts cause them to move backwards for a spell until they recover). An example of a horse that already has done a lot of developing is Suddenbreakingnews. He's gone from the turf debut 15.75 and dirt second start 14, down through 11's, 9.5/Springboard, 3/Southwest, 4.25/Rebel, 1.25/AR Derby.

This is a horse who has almost never gone backwards as even the Rebel has a traffic issue to consider. The question TG players have to answer with him is can he run the race he did in the AR Derby (or even improve) or is this a spot where all the progress (and 3 week turnaround) catch up with him? In TG parlance, you say "Is a major contender for a big piece with a pair up, win candidate with any improvement, bred top and bottom for the Classic trip, will be a big price" and most likely use him.

Thanks, Stevie!

This is a really great explanation. I'm really looking forward to going over the sheets of the contenders.

I'm listening to your broadcast from yesterday with my coffee. You had me in tears with Rachel Alexandra! With the popularity of Rachel and Zenyatta, I hope they find a way to stream,or record, the Hall of Fame Induction ceremony. It was always one of my favorite events to attend in Saratoga. (They need to get Durkin to host again!)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Thanks, Stevie!

This is a really great explanation. I'm really looking forward to going over the sheets of the contenders.

I'm listening to your broadcast from yesterday with my coffee. You had me in tears with Rachel Alexandra! With the popularity of Rachel and Zenyatta, I hope they find a way to stream,or record, the Hall of Fame Induction ceremony. It was always one of my favorite events to attend in Saratoga. (They need to get Durkin to host again!)

I'll give you a TG tutorial this weekend. Im not as big on the bounce or regression idea as others.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'll give you a TG tutorial this weekend. Im not as big on the bounce or regression idea as others.