Oaks and Derby Handicapping

[MaTH716]

Apparently Secret Circle is out as well:


Secret Circle will get a rest in coming weeks and will not run in #KyDerby, Bob Baffert tells @DRFAndersen. Will get precautionary tests.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Apparently Secret Circle is out as well:


Secret Circle will get a rest in coming weeks and will not run in #KyDerby, Bob Baffert tells @DRFAndersen. Will get precautionary tests.

Hope he is OK. Another great move by the GOAT. If this guys healthy how does he not win the Kings Bishop?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

As per Baffert on Twitter
Bob Baffert ‏ @Midnightlute
Princess Arabella out of Ky Oaks. Live interview on HRTV today at 10am Pacific time for more details

Horrible news. I need horses to beat the 2 likely overbet chalks.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Hope he is OK. Another great move by the GOAT. If this guys healthy how does he not win the Kings Bishop?

I guess he wont be running in the Kings Bishop.

[Danzig]

sesamoid injury, no surgery, out a few months.

not sure how pegram thinks tho that winning over a million means SC could have gotten 10f.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

sesamoid injury, no surgery, out a few months.

not sure how pegram thinks tho that winning over a million means SC could have gotten 10f.

Who says he cant though? His pedigree says he ran route. He has 43 flat blazing speed, but he rates. Maybe this injury has been brewing, if so he looks even better now.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Who says he cant though? His pedigree says he ran route. He has 43 flat blazing speed, but he rates. Maybe this injury has been brewing, if so he looks even better now.

a lot of people, which is why pegram said what he did. and your last sentence?

[HaloWishingwell]

I know post position will have an impact on this but this is how I see the early order of the race;
Trinniberg
Hansen
Bodemeister
Gemologist
Take Charge Indy
Alpha
Mark Valeski
I'll Have Another
El Padrino
Union Rags
Creative Cause
Prospective
Dullahan
Daddy Nose Best
Daddy Long Legs
Rousing Sermon
Liaison
Sabercat
Went The Day Well
Done Talking

[MaTH716]

You posted this in the other thread.

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Using....All
Tossing....none

Post positions,reports, weather and etc. Just too much to come before dumping anyone.

For example a horse on the bubble like El Padrino and Take Charge Indy would go way up my list if it rains.

Now, you are trying to figure out the early pace scenarios?

I agree with your original post, for the most part let's figure out which 20 will be in the gate and where. Plus we'll have some sort of idea on what the weather will be and how the track is playing the first few days of the meet.

[HaloWishingwell]

I stand to my first post since it could make a difference to the final outcome of the race. I think not much at this point will change how the race unveils early on. Getting post one won't suddenly bless Done Talking with speed to the front.

[tywizard]

Steve has mentioned this before somewhere...And I couldn't agree more.

I can't make heads or tails of The Oaks. Every logical contender appears to have the exact same front running style. I suppose Grace Hall has shown some ability to sit and wait and maybe Summer Applause. Any thoughts on how this race will develop?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Steve has mentioned this before somewhere...And I couldn't agree more.

I can't make heads or tails of The Oaks. Every logical contender appears to have the exact same front running style. I suppose Grace Hall has shown some ability to sit and wait and maybe Summer Applause. Any thoughts on how this race will develop?

Summer Applause will get the set-up that she didn't get last out, but nearly won anyway.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Summer Applause will get the set-up that she didn't get last out, but nearly won anyway.

What do you mean?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Summer Applause will get the set-up that she didn't get last out, but nearly won anyway.

Summer Applause got a HUGE setup last time and somehow still lost.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What do you mean?

Meaning I like Summer Applause better for the Oaks than I do Believe You Can.

[tywizard]

http://t.co/41IBzPVc

Undercard probables for both days.

[ADJMK]

Keep hearing that Union Rags is not bred for the distance.Does anyone know if any of Dixie Union's progeny has run or even attempted to go 1 1/4?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Keep hearing that Union Rags is not bred for the distance.Does anyone know if any of Dixie Union's progeny has run or even attempted to go 1 1/4?

Grasshopper did in the '07 Travers. In addition to having the same sire, Union Rags & Grasshoppers' dams have a similar pedigree so he might be one to look at as a comparison if you're interested in that sort of thing.

Personally I don't see anything about Union Rags in his pedigree or (more importantly) in his past performances that says 10f will neccesarily be a problem for him. Doesn't mean it won't be, but I see no reason to think that the 1f stretch out will hurt (or help) this particular colt.

[richard]

He's from the family of Colonial Affair, winner of the Belmont S. Also from family of Angliana, 2nd in the 10F Red Smith H., 11F Lawrence Realization, and 13F Gallant Fox. 2nd dam Terpsichorist set a ntr @ Med for 11F in 2:13, so distance does not appear to be a disqualifier.

[Thunder Gulch]

UR certainly doesn't have that classic 10 f pedigree, but the last decade has been a parade of 8-9f pedigree looks that won on class.