2/24 (GP): Fountain of Youth (Gr. II)

He'll have to be a super horse to win from that post AND have Eddie Castro on his back.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

So, are you saying that the winner of the prep race doesn't gain that same foundation?

Building the foundation is part of it, but the prep race is more about not being 100% cranked and shooting your wad before the main goal. The ideal scenario in my opinion for a prep is a real easy win, where you get some foundation and the check, without hurting the muscles. Figuring out preps/intent is tricky.

[Indian Charlie]

yeah, the post is a concern, but this field is so awful, i actually think court vision and monba look like standouts (minus adriano). i think both of those are pretty weak at that, so my perhaps wishful thinking says he can overcome his post based on being superior.

as for the jock, well, i think they are all liabilities. anyone not named gomez at this point seems to be a cancer.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

He'll have to be a super horse to win from that post AND have Eddie Castro on his back.

Agreed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

based on what BTW?

he debuted on turf as a pretty early season 2yo. and if he sucks on dirt, why the placement of him here, instead of aiming him for all the turf races and a likely turf eclipse award?

those ap indy - mr p mare crosses sure seem okay on dirt to me, and this horse has no turf breeding in him at all.

it seems pretty far fetched to say he sucks on dirt at this point.

It seems pretty far fetched that he's good on the dirt actually.

Trainers run horses on the turf, unless they have exceptional turf breeding and no dirt breeding, because they are too slow to run competitively on the dirt. The opportunities and financial upside in dirt racing FAR outweighs turf racing in this country. For this reason, trainers will rarely run on the turf first out unless they are fairly certain the horse has no affinity for the dirt. Sometimes they will try once, see Cowboy Cal, but once their opinion has been confirmed they will go the grass. It is very rare that a horse that begins its career on the turf will run well on the dirt in subsequent starts. Occasionally at trainer will use a turf start as a prep, but clearly this isn't the case for Adrianno.

There are no absolutes in this game but over my lifetime of playing horses I have benefited greatly from tossing horses like Adrianno who are bet on the dirt based on grass races. These horses bomb way more often than not.

[blackthroatedwind]

Of course, now seeing that you like Monba, not to mention Court Vision, I see you are completely confused.

Monba, in my opinion, is the very essense of the emperor's new clothes. Where the phuck is his good race? If he was trained by Joe Nobody, and not Pletcher, he would be 15-1.

[VOL JACK]

[quote=blackthroatedwind]The usual reason.....he sucks on the dirt.

I would disagree. I think that Motion is a trainer that puts everything on the turf first, then if they don't handle it, use the dirt as the back up surface.
Afterall, he does train his horses on the Tapeta at Fair Hill. When horses work good on the synthetic, trainers automatically assume they want the turf.
Bottom line is that G. Motion is a turf trainer; and imo as good of a horseman as we have in the game.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

this field is so awful, i actually think court vision and monba look like standouts (minus adriano).

I don't think this field looks awful at all. There are no sure-fire standouts to be sure, but there are a number of horses who are coming off fairly nice races in their last starts.
Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Anak Nakal, Elysium Fields, and Make the Point are all coming off decent wins. For a race like the Fountain of Youth, I don't think this is a terrible field.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I would disagree. I think that Motion is a trainer that puts everything on the turf first, then if they don't handle it, use the dirt as the back up surface.
Afterall, he does train his horses on the Tapeta at Fair Hill. When horses work good on the synthetic, trainers automatically assume they want the turf.
Bottom line is that G. Motion is a turf trainer; and imo as good of a horseman as we have in the game.

Graham Motion is a very good trainer.....and apparently not an idiot. He would have run this horse on the dirt if he felt it liked the surface. He runs plenty of horses, including 2YOs, on the dirt.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Of course, now seeing that you like Monba, not to mention Court Vision, I see you are completely confused.

Monba, in my opinion, is the very essense of the emperor's new clothes. Where the phuck is his good race? If he was trained by Joe Nobody, and not Pletcher, he would be 15-1.

actually, no, i dont like either of them. i think both court vision and monba have very little talent and are virtual no hopes for the triple crown races.

my point in saying they looked like standouts in that race (minus adriano) is that the rest of the field looked like even bigger garbage.

cool coal man looks pretty bad as does golden spikes.

i find kentucky bear quite interesting, but it isn't the most favorable spot for a horse coming off it's debut, is it?

z humor? ick

ready set looks awful.

anak nakal has the potential to win this, but i just don't get the hype on this horse. he looks worse than court vision, but who knows.

the sniper horse, elysium fields, does nothing for me at this point, though he does have some upside.

halo najib? another horse with some hype that doesn't seem well founded to me.

make the point is a big question mark to me, but i dont like the breeding for this distance. i suppose i should watch a race of his though before i condemn him.

i can think of a few horses that debuted on turf and ended up doing okay on dirt, but most horses that do debut on turf are bred for it, so it's not that surprising to me that most don't make a successful transition.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't think this field looks awful at all. There are no sure-fire standouts to be sure, but there are a number of horses who are coming off fairly nice races in their last starts.
Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Anak Nakal, Elysium Fields, and Make the Point are all coming off decent wins. For a race like the Fountain of Youth, I don't think this is a terrible field.

i dont know man. cool coal man looks awful if you ask me. you can make an okay case for the others you name, but i really feel that adriano is such a much better horse than anyone in here, that he really needs to only handle the dirt to beat these.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I find it very hard to believe Adriano is going to win this race, with that post on the dirt. I just can't see it happening.

think halfbridled in the bc dude.

if one is so much better than the others (assuming he doesn't hate dirt, as BTW implies), he should be able to overcome some lost ground.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

think halfbridled in the bc dude.

if one is so much better than the others (assuming he doesn't hate dirt, as BTW implies), he should be able to overcome some lost ground.

How many have overcome that lost ground at Gulfstream?

[bogeydaman]

[quote=Indian Charlie]if adriano at all takes to dirt, and he's bred much better for dirt racing than turf racing, this race is over.QUOTE]

[quote=cool coal man looks pretty bad as does golden spikes.QUOTE]

IMO the larger issue (not that the turf/dirt question is inconsequential) is the post. Out of 18 2 turn races on the dirt at GP this meet, 17 have been won from the 1 through 4 posts (12 (66%) by the 1 and 2 alone). I wouldn't touch this horse at 40-1.

Might also want reconsider Cool Coal man and Golden Spikes who both look to sit perfect trips from the inside.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

think halfbridled in the bc dude.

if one is so much better than the others (assuming he doesn't hate dirt, as BTW implies), he should be able to overcome some lost ground.

Not at 9 furlongs at Gulfstream.

Is Barbaro still the only one to win from an outside post since the reconfiguration? How many have won from 9-12?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The difference is NO ONE wins from post 12 at Gulfstream going 9 furlongs and why do you think he is so much better than these? I agree Monba and Court Vision suck, but what has Adriano done that makes him stick out so much? I'm not being sarcastic, but I don't see it, so what am i missing?

i didn't realize the stats for the outside going 9f there was so abysmal.

to answer your question though, i feel that he's so much better by watching him run. his last race was so much more impressive than anything i've seen in this crop so far (minus war pass).

that might not be a logical explanation to you, but i'm pretty decent at this sort of thing. he was just extremely visually impressive. i like his stride and his way of going, he seems to have more than enough stamina, and as of his last race, has a pretty nice turn of foot.

[blackthroatedwind]

Apparantly Adriano has some hidden race that only the poster Indian Charlie has seen. Apparently he possesses some sort of ability that doesn't show in his pps. Surely none of his races last year were anything to write home about. Not bad, but certainly nothing spectacular, and probably worse than just about any race the rest of the field has run. And, then there's his race this year, where he sat a perfect trip behind a pace that collapsed so badly that a horse as bad as the second finisher, Ablazewithspirit, was even able to give the appearance of being decent. In case, like Indian Charlie, you're not familiar with Ablazewithspirit, he broke his maiden on the turf in a $40K maiden claimer in his previous start. The third finisher, who also benefited from the collapsing pace, lost to Celestial Comet by a like amount in his next start. I suppose I should call Bruce Lunsford and tell him to put that one on the TC trail as well.

So, all Adriano has to do to win this race is.....overcome post 12 and improve dramatically on the dirt. At 100-1 I'm not even sure he's a good bet.

[Indian Charlie]

yeah, think what you like man. i can take some heat for sticking my neck out.

if i'm wrong, so be it. but when i have a pretty strong opinion about horses like that, they usually do okay. perhaps tomorrow isnt his day due to the post he drew, but i see this as a horse with much more upside than anyone else in this race.

it would be nice to see him duplicate his last performance, sure, but that's part of the fun of this sport for me, seeing horses that have greater ability early in their career than most people give them credit for.

i'm just glad i was not around back in 05, when i thought barbaro was going to win the derby off his debut turf win. i probably would have been ridiculed to death.

is that a redboard?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

yeah, think what you like man. i can take some heat for sticking my neck out.

if i'm wrong, so be it. but when i have a pretty strong opinion about horses like that, they usually do okay. perhaps tomorrow isnt his day due to the post he drew, but i see this as a horse with much more upside than anyone else in this race.

it would be nice to see him duplicate his last performance, sure, but that's part of the fun of this sport for me, seeing horses that have greater ability early in their career than most people give them credit for.

i'm just glad i was not around back in 05, when i thought barbaro was going to win the derby off his debut turf win. i probably would have been ridiculed to death.

is that a redboard?

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.