Saturday February 17 Fair Grounds ROI Wagers go here

[JolyB]

We are playing the full card at the Fair Grounds. Please have your wagers for the ROI contest posted on this thread not later than 12:00 Noon Central time.

Good luck to all and thank you to Real Quiet for scoring.

[Real Quiet]

R2...$11 ex key 12 w 2-10-13 ($33)

R11...$12 ex key 3 w 4-8-9 ($36)

R14...10 cent superfecta 4-5-6-8-11 w 4-5-6-8-11 w 4-5-6-8-11
w 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-11 ($30)

[RUFFIAN]

💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰

I’M JUST A ‘CHROMED OUT CAT ‘ 🐱
AND ‘PLUM TRICKY’ SOME MAY SAY
AS I ‘BEE DANCIN’ RIGHT ALONG
ON MY FRISKY FELINE WAY


RACE 3
#4 = $30 WIN
🦅 HAWK CREEK


RACE 4
#8 = $20 WIN
A CHROMED OUT CAT 🐱

RACE 6
#3 = $30 WIN
PLUM TRICKY 😸

RACE 14 THE BIG DANCE 🐎
#12 = $20 WIN
BEE 🐝 DANCER 💃

CAJUN QUIRKY CATNIP QUICHE
FOR THE NOT SO QUIET ONE 🤫







🐯 MAY THE PURRRRR BE WITH YOU 😻

WEBSITE ===> www.RUFFIAN333.com

🐎 Horses 🏇
😻 Cats 😸
🐶 Dogs 🐕
📖 Poetry 🖊
🎶 Lyrics 🎵

[NJ Stinks]

Playing this week from Barbados. I was hoping to watch the horses run at Garrison Savannah tomorrow but my main reason for coming here missed their rare live dates by a couple weeks. Still, we're playing golf tomorrow so how bad can it be?

As for this week's at the Fair Grounds:

Race 12- $50 to win on #5 (Palazzi)

Race 14 - $50 to win on #4 (Sierra Leon)

Good luck to all.

[Digger]

R11: best actor 3 ( SHOW $100 )

[JolyB]

From time to time I've gotten up on my soap box to criticize the quality of a card's morning line. Today's ML at the Fair Grounds seems to be egregiously off of the mark. On a card of 14 races, there is only one horse listed at ML odds of less than 5-2, and that one (Nash) looks as if it will go off at odds on rather than the listed 9-5. Would anyone like to suggest an over/under of the number of horses on this card who will in fact go off at odds of less than 5-2?

[Zippy]

R1 $2exbx 2-6-7-10 ($24)

R2 $2exbx 2-7-9-10 ($24)

R9 $2exbx 1-6-8-10 ($24)

R13 $2exbx 2-4-5-6 ($24)
$4 Show #4

GOOD LUCK!!!

[JolyB]

Race #8:
$25 trifecta: 3,4 / 3,4,9 / 3,4,9 ($100)

Good luck to all and thank you to Real Quiet for scoring.

[DonGuido]

Race 7; $20 ex
4w/2,7,9,10,11
Enjoy the day111

[Indian Hemp]

race 13

$50 WIN

2

race 14

$50 WIN 3


thanks RQ and good luck all

[RUFFIAN]

As long as Joly has opened up the soapbox pavilion
I’ll Pounce out of my Litter Box
Onto the griping platform

Feline Feelings were very HURT 😿
By the Negative Reaction to My Venue Choice

If Horses can occasionally run a longer distance
Such as Belmont + A few others @ 1 1/2 M
Then players can join in the fun of the day
Without complaining and whining about #14

I’m guessing some of you hope
That this Frisky Feline never Wins
Because you won’t like my venue choice

This is an equal opportunity forum
So respect and good wishes
Should always be given to the Winner
Regardless of the venue decision

My Catnip Buffet is waiting
So I shall pounce out of my Litter Box

WISHING ALL A RISEN STAR SHINING ON YOU TODAY ♥️

[cal828]

R11

$10 Exacta 9//3,4,6=$30

R14

$10 Exacta 4//5,6,7,9,10,11=$60

$10 Win 6

[cruzan200246]

R8. 8 Pirate Rick $25 Win
R10. 13 Join The Dance $25 Place
R11. 9 Smile Happy $25 Place
R12. 5 Palazzi $25 Win

[Real Quiet]

Originally Posted by JolyB

From time to time I've gotten up on my soap box to criticize the quality of a card's morning line. Today's ML at the Fair Grounds seems to be egregiously off of the mark. On a card of 14 races, there is only one horse listed at ML odds of less than 5-2, and that one (Nash) looks as if it will go off at odds on rather than the listed 9-5. Would anyone like to suggest an over/under of the number of horses on this card who will in fact go off at odds of less than 5-2?

It would be nice JB if we got those morning line prices on all those horses. Getting a favorite that pays $8.00 makes it easier to make a few bucks. However I think you are 1000% correct in that the majority of winning favorites and perhaps a second choice or two will pay less than $7.

[Real Quiet]

And yes Ruff. We go by the rules. Nobody eliminated any of your 14 races. We all have our opinions and nobody infringed on your choice.

[cal828]

As I get older, a lot gets by me, but I didn't see any whining or complaining about the venue or race 14. If I were the former Potus, I would say the whole things sounds like a "witch" hunt to me.

[RUFFIAN]

PURRR ANOTHER GREAT PRESIDENT

THIS SOUNDS LIKE A BUNCH OF “ MALARKY”

PURRRHAPS JUST MY PURRRSPECTIVE
BUT I THOUGHT THERE WAS A LOT OF
DISGRUNTLEMENT, DISSATISFACTION REGARDING
MY SELECTION OF FULL CARD

THERE IS NO “WITCH” Hunt
But for me
I almost felt I was going to burn at the STAKE
WHICH WOULDN’T BE GOOD BECAUSE I’M A VEGETARIAN

[RUFFIAN]

Race 14 - $50 to win on #4 (Sierra Leon)
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
NJS

PURRRRRFECT PURRRRSPECTIVE PICKINS

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

It would be nice JB if we got those morning line prices on all those horses. Getting a favorite that pays $8.00 makes it easier to make a few bucks. However I think you are 1000% correct in that the majority of winning favorites and perhaps a second choice or two will pay less than $7.

I took a look at the charts to see if my rant about the morning line was valid. Turns out that in the 13 races that can be analyzed (Race 3 with only 3 runners can't be included in this discussion), there were 8 horses who went off at less than 2-1, including 2 of them in race 8. It was a rough day for the chalk players since of those 8, only 2 were winners, although a number of them finished 2nd. The 9/5 favorite in race 5 was in fact the 4th choice in the ML at 4-1.

I don't envy the job of the linemaker; I couldn't do it 5 days a week, with the requirement that it be available 2 days before the race. Add to that some of the other less mentioned factors, such as if you list a horse that will be an overwhelming favorite at 2/5, you must list some other runners in that race at 25-1 or higher for your numbers to work, and that can be viewed as an insult to the owners and trainers of those horses. I suspect that some linemakers take this factor into account. The fellow who does the line at Mountaineer mentioned this on one of his insightful race previews. Nonetheless, for races where I am looking at any significant play, I find that I need to put the ML aside and make my own in order to have any real feel for the race. That takes a lot of time and just can't be done for more than a couple of races per day.

OK, rant over. Just thought some of you might find this of interest.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by JolyB

I took a look at the charts to see if my rant about the morning line was valid. Turns out that in the 13 races that can be analyzed (Race 3 with only 3 runners can't be included in this discussion), there were 8 horses who went off at less than 2-1, including 2 of them in race 8. It was a rough day for the chalk players since of those 8, only 2 were winners, although a number of them finished 2nd. The 9/5 favorite in race 5 was in fact the 4th choice in the ML at 4-1.

I don't envy the job of the linemaker; I couldn't do it 5 days a week, with the requirement that it be available 2 days before the race. Add to that some of the other less mentioned factors, such as if you list a horse that will be an overwhelming favorite at 2/5, you must list some other runners in that race at 25-1 or higher for your numbers to work, and that can be viewed as an insult to the owners and trainers of those horses. I suspect that some linemakers take this factor into account. The fellow who does the line at Mountaineer mentioned this on one of his insightful race previews. Nonetheless, for races where I am looking at any significant play, I find that I need to put the ML aside and make my own in order to have any real feel for the race. That takes a lot of time and just can't be done for more than a couple of races per day.

OK, rant over. Just thought some of you might find this of interest.

You are a true student of the game Joly and your knowledge of it is impressive and instructional. Two observations from me. One, I thought whoever made the odds wouldn't even be close considering the track was a river, but they certainly had it right in the big race and luckily, I went along with them and glad I did, but in the waning moments before it went off I wasn't all that confident. Chad's horse had already proven himself on a muddy track, but I wasn't sure that would translate to a sloppy track and the other thing was I noticed that Asmussen's maiden winner was 3-1 and I left him out. The other thing that might have had some effect on the odds making was the absence of the Ortiz brothers. Obviously, whatever, Irad rides is often made the favorite and often deservedly so.

Anyway, I do appreciate these asides from you. Like I said, instructive.